“By 2050 most geologists will agree that most of earth's oil and gas reserves were not produced by decaying plants.” ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2050-01-01.

In the United States of America, driverless cars will have been sold to the public and it will have been legal at some point to use them on highways before 2050. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-06; known on 2050-01-01.

An (other) astronomical object with a diameter bigger than Mercury will be discover in the Solar System before 2050. ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-04-01; known on 2050-01-01.

Presence of life in the past (or present) that doesn't originate from Earth will be discovered in the solar system before 2050. ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-04-04; known on 2050-01-01.

“By 2050, at least two pan-regional currencies, modeled on the Euro, will be used in the world.” ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2050-01-01.

The public will either have at least six months advance notice prior to the use of the first quantum computer for bitcoin mining (w/ SHA256), or such a quantum computer will not exist prior to 2050. ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by lavalamp on 2014-04-10; known on 2050-01-01.

Unique games conjecture resolved by 2050. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-10; known on 2050-01-01.

Informal “Du” will be the most common form of address in everyday business transactions in Germany by 2050 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jasticE on 2015-03-03; known on 2050-01-01.

A peace treaty ends the arab-isreali conflict before 2050 ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-08; known on 2050-01-01.

“By 2050 no synthetic computer nor machine intelligence will have become truly self-aware (ie. will become conscious).” ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2050-01-01.

“The Bet: By 2050, we will receive intelligent signals from outside our solar system.” ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2050-01-01.

George R. R. Martin dies before Winds of Winter is published ( 49% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-08-14; known on 2050-01-01.

“By the middle of the 21st century, a team of fully autonomous humanoid robot soccer players shall win a soccer game, complying with the official rules of FIFA, against the winner of the most recent World Cup.” – Robocup mission statement ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by benwr on 2015-01-11; known on 2050-01-01.

Conditional on nuclear weapons being used, the target will be within Pakistan or India. ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-22; known on 2050-01-01.

Conditional on nuclear weapons being used, the target will be within the Korean peninsula. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-22; known on 2050-01-01.

Paraplegia due to spinal cord injury cured in greater than 90% of cases before 2050 ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-09-24; known on 2050-01-01.

Teleportation to be developed before 2050 ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-09-20; known on 2050-01-01.

Armed conflict in space before 2050 ( 10% confidence; 8 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-16; known on 2050-01-01.

Time travel developed before 2050 ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.

The Boy Scouts will admit openly atheist scouts before 2050 ( 79% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-07-28; known on 2050-01-01.

Faster-than-light travel developed before 2050 ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.

Faster-than-light communication developed before 2050 ( 1% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.

Invisibility cloak capable of concealing human sized objects developed before 2050 ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-09-24; known on 2050-01-01.

US will abandon the electoral college at any time before 2050 ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2016-10-02; known on 2050-01-01.

Artificial ears which are comparable to or superior than natural ears will be developed by 2050 ( 60% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-25; known on 2050-01-01.

A heat engine which beats the Carnot efficiency will be developed before 2050 ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-09-07; known on 2050-01-01.

Mouse, rat, rabbit, or other small mammal successfully revived from cryopreservation before 2050 ( 29% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-09-17; known on 2050-01-01.

No functional whole brain emulation of a human will exist on Earth before 2050. ( 60% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2050-01-01.

By 2050 travelling by plane would be a luxury (less than 1 % of the world population) (because of resource depletion, or others) . ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Osuniev on 2013-09-05; known on 2050-01-01.

By 1 January 2050, the average house price in Australia will be at least AUD $1 million dollars. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by najdorf on 2013-11-11; known on 2050-01-02.

The world will not end before 2050 ( 89% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Lyaer on 2012-08-18; known on 2050-01-02.

Artificial eyes which allow the user to score 20/20 or better on a visual acuity test will be developed by 2050 ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-25; known on 2050-01-02.

Infinitely many primes with gap <= 16, proven by 2050 ( 57% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-05-20; known on 2050-01-16.

A zombie apocalypse could happen. ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Snowshi on 2014-01-20; known on 2050-01-16.

Insects can feel pain and suffer ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by xdxdxd on 2019-02-02; known on 2050-03-01.

White people are going to get their form of a Holocaust, Slavery, etc. ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by SINCITYxFoXx on 2011-03-30; known on 2050-03-30.

The Chinese economy will exceed the American economy before 2050 ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-31; known on 2050-03-31.

No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo ( 45% confidence; 13 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-22; known on 2050-05-29.

By 2050 the majority of music will be “generated” and not recorded. This will include vocals. ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by msevrens on 2014-10-28; known on 2050-10-28.

Truly “Pilotless” air travel will be the standard in 2050. ( 62% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2050-12-16.

Bharat will be the most populous nation in the world by 2050 at 1.63 billion people. —Jansankhya Sthirata Kosh or National Population Stabilisation Fund (NPSF). ( 100% confidence; 7 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-30; known on 2050-12-25.

By 2050 stunting will be at 0% globally. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-21; known on 2050-12-25.

They'll clone a Neanderthal (or other species of primitive human) by 2040 ( 24% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-06; known on 2050-12-31.

The “Rapture” will not occur by the end of 2050. ( 99% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by davidiach on 2012-06-06; known on 2050-12-31.

“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant — a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid — anywhere in the world.” ( 38% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-12-31.

P=NP or P≠NP will be proven in either direction by 2050 ( 31% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by scatterspace on 2021-06-14; known on 2050-12-31.

A large quantum computer capable of breaking 163-bit Elliptic Curve Cryptography WILL be built before 2050. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by niconiconi on 2021-02-26; known on 2051-01-01.

Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050. ( 1% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by najdorf on 2013-11-12; known on 2051-01-01.

By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space. ( 15% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Grognor on 2012-04-08; known on 2051-01-01.

Antibiotics prescribed less than 50 times per 1000 Americans in 2050 ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-09-21; known on 2051-01-01.