A professional athlete will not voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041. ( 38% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-11; known on 2041-01-01.

HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire) ( 56% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-04; known on 2041-01-01.

By 2040, top athletes in their 50s will match the performance of athletes decades younger using advanced medicine (Daniel Lemire). ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-04; known on 2041-01-01.

Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 68% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.

Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen. ( 47% confidence; 23 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-03; known on 2041-01-01.

P!=NP, and proven by 2040 —Ken ( 44% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2041-01-01.

Alcor will perform >=1 cryopreservations in 2040. ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2041-01-01.

The majority of Alcor cryopreservations as of 2011 will have maintained preservation continuity as of 2041. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2041-01-01.

Alcor's Patient Trust Fund will be solvent in 2041. ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2041-01-01.

Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 32% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.

Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 69% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.

Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 31% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.

A “theory of everything” combining quantum mechanics and general relativity found by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.

Canadian government will pass an “Anti-Cyberbullying law”, and this will be used to enforce copyrights ( 58% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-10; known on 2041-01-01.

Linux most widely used operating system for personal desktop and laptop computers in the world by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.

Commercial fusion reactors by end of 2040. ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-22; known on 2041-01-01.

The Arab-Israeli conflict is not over by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 72% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.

Attention Deficit Disorder more prevalent in hacker community(based on multiple, broad criteria) than baseline at a statistically significant level (at least in 2010s) ( 63% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-01; known on 2041-01-01.

'2040 The “Universal Replicator,” based on nanotechnology, is perfected: any object, however complex, can be created – given the necessary raw materials. Diamonds or gourmet meals can, literally, be made from dirt.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2041-01-01.

By 2040 the US remains the world's strongest economic power, as measured by GDP. — Axel Boldt ( 33% confidence; 9 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.

Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 9% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.

Human-level AI by 2040 (Richard Sutton: Eyes On The Prize talk, 2022) ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by YuxiLiu on 2022-10-26; known on 2041-01-01.

Twitter to finally allow ppl to autoorganize tweets into folders by 2040 ( 40% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-15; known on 2041-01-01.

Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 33% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.

[Humans will understand human-level intelligence… (Richard Sutton: The Future of Artificial Intelligence Belongs to Search and Learning)] after 2040 ( 15% confidence )

Created by YuxiLiu on 2022-10-26; known on 2041-01-01.

[Humans will understand human-level intelligence… (Richard Sutton: The Future of Artificial Intelligence Belongs to Search and Learning)] by 2030 ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by YuxiLiu on 2022-10-26; known on 2041-01-01.

[Humans will understand human-level intelligence… (Richard Sutton: The Future of Artificial Intelligence Belongs to Search and Learning)] by 2040 ( 50% confidence )

Created by YuxiLiu on 2022-10-26; known on 2041-01-01.

[Humans will understand human-level intelligence… (Richard Sutton: The Future of Artificial Intelligence Belongs to Search and Learning)] never ( 10% confidence )

Created by YuxiLiu on 2022-10-26; known on 2041-01-01.

Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 65% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.

Effective herpes vaccine developed by 2040 ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by btrettel on 2015-10-12; known on 2041-01-01.

Bicycling mortality rate in US will be above 0.09 in 2040 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-24; known on 2041-01-01.

Most human conception occurs via IVF/Embryo Selection ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-08; known on 2041-01-01.

Working system wherein VR/AR is actually presented to the user from within the nervous system ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-03; known on 2041-07-01.

No euthanasia coaster will be built in the next 30 years. (See http://news.discovery.com/tech/euthanasia-sucicide-rollercoaster-ride-110919.html ) ( 87% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-21; known on 2041-09-21.

USA economy's long-run rate of growth of per-capita real GDP over the next 25 years will be 0.9% due to demography, education, inequality, and the federal debt —Robert J Gordon Stanley G. Harris Professor,Social Sciences Northwestern University. ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 19 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-19; known on 2041-12-25.

Fully artificial kidney will be publicly available by 2042. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Mati on 2020-02-29; known on 2042-01-01.

Of the total-coloring conjecture, list coloring conjecture, the EFL conjecture, and the Hardwiger conjecture, by Jan 1, 2042, either a triplet of them shown to imply the other, or one of them shown to be undecidable. ( 52% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-15; known on 2042-01-01.

By 2042, solar energy will cost half or less of what fossil-fuel based alternatives do. ( 53% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-15; known on 2042-01-01.

At least one commercial fusion reactor adding power to the grid by 2041. ( 49% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-26; known on 2042-01-01.

By January 1, 2042, proven that at least 9/10ths of the non-trivial zeros of the Riemann zeta function lie on the real line (proportionally). ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-27; known on 2042-01-01.

NTRU found to be fundamentally vulnerable to quantum computer based attacks by January 1, 2042. ( 65% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-12; known on 2042-01-01.

Someone without foot and with artificial legs will do under 10 seconds at the 100 meters sprint before 2041. ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-09; known on 2042-01-01.

Level 5 autonomous cars will be commercially available by 2042. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Mati on 2020-02-29; known on 2042-01-01.

social movement with explicit reference to kyriarchy as a tenet commits mass murder (>10,000 people) ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-18; known on 2042-01-01.

Food will be commercially synthesized from chemical stocks like coal or atmospheric nitrogen. —J.B.S. Haldane ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-18; known on 2043-01-01.

The weekly newspaper The Economist will be in continuous publication until at least 2043. ( 46% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2043-01-01.

In 20 years, Eve and I will agree that the Long Wharf area of New Haven looks substantially aesthetically nicer than it does right now. ( 61% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-03-17; known on 2043-03-16.

Human extinction caused by AI before my 50th birthday. ( 19% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-02-28; known on 2043-10-10.

The fusion energy gain factor of a fusion reactor will reach a Q >= 1 before January 1st 2044, conditional on no existential catastrophes or wins. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2044-01-01.

More people will get born in Russia in year 2040 than in Russia in year 2037 ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by kuudes on 2021-10-27; known on 2045-01-01.