Upcoming Predictions
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Within 25 years, a state with UN representation will exist whose territory incorporates portions of both Iran and Syria. ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-11-16; known on 2040-01-01.
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“By 2040, at least 40% of Americans making to age 65 will live to age 100.” ( 43% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2040-01-01.
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An EA aligned organization will become the target of directed government repression in the US, UK, or an EU country by 2040 ( 10% confidence )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2040-01-01.
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An EA aligned organization will become the target of directed government repression by 2040 ( 85% confidence )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2040-01-01.
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Ted Nelson, inventor of hypertext: Shinichi Mochizuki is the real Satoshi Nakamoto ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-21; known on 2040-01-01.
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GRRM dies before finishing A Song of Ice and Fire ( 49% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2040-01-01.
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“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.” ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2040-01-01.
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“By 2040, less than 5% of the global population is smoking.” ( 40% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2040-01-01.
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Over 50% of current drivers will be using auto driven cars.1 ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Yoro on 2021-04-04; known on 2040-01-01.
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“Automated freight transport” widespread by 2030s ( 84% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-19; known on 2040-01-01.
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Someone will get a 500$ award from Chris Hallquist for convincing him to cancel his cryonics submission ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by itaibn on 2014-01-11; known on 2040-01-01.
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“Satoshi Nakamoto” collaborated with Nick Szabo to create Bitcoin. ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ZLM on 2014-02-11; known on 2040-01-01.
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'The final collapse of the European Union' ( 43% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-07; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-18.
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“By the year 2040, AI will appear on computer viruses that will communicate with each other using a universal Internet language and will be programmed to fuse together and mutate into Computer Organs that will later be controlled by powerful search engine ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2040-01-01.
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EU to dissolve by 2040. ( 39% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-25; known on 2040-01-01.
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No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040. ( 86% confidence; 24 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-19; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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Conditional on Putin leaving office in the middle of a term, Nikolai Patrushev is his successor for the majority of that term ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-07-29; known on 2040-01-01.
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Internal communications of an EA organisation be part of a data leak by 2040 ( 80% confidence )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2040-01-01.
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By 2040, no other country will have both more active nuclear warheads and higher GDP than the United States. ( 64% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-10-02; known on 2040-01-01.
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The petrodollar will be dismantled by 2040. ( 51% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-01-19; known on 2040-01-01.
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Bioviva's Liz Parrish to have demonstrated convincing evidence of age reversal with gene therapy ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2040-01-01.
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Yoshua Bengio to eventually cash out into private industry (at least once) ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2040-01-01.
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World governments will ban chemical/Biological/Nuclear weapons after The Third World War (WW III) and make it a penalty of death to all who develop such weapons … anywhere … on Earth. ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2040-01-16.
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Nuclear war in 25 years. ( 10% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by argothiel on 2015-03-04; known on 2040-03-16.
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People will use Wine (the windows non-emulator) on Windows to play older games within 20 years ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-04-20; known on 2040-04-20.
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Chinese economy will be larger than the US in the future. After that, India is the next best candidate that could surpass US economy in the next 25 years. After that China and India could be competing for number one — Masoyoshi Son, Softbank ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-17; known on 2040-06-24.
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Lindsay Lohan will die before 50 ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jande417 on 2010-08-19; known on 2040-08-19.
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Cognitive Implants will be available for consumer use by 2040. ( 62% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2040-11-17.
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Terrorism in the Middle East Will Decline By Half By 2040. ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-08-08; known on 2040-12-16.
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56% share of world generation for zero carbon energy sources(renewables+nuclear) by 2040. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-06; known on 2040-12-25.
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Worldwide capacity of rooftop, building-integrated and local PV soar from 104GW in 2014 to nearly 1.8TW in 2040, a 17-fold increase. ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-06; known on 2040-12-25.
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European Union long term growth rate will average 1.4% real gdp annually. ( 100% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-19; known on 2040-12-25.
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If a second civil war starts/continues in the USA, and Republicans and Democrats are opposing belligerents, out of possibly more belligerents, Australia will fight on the side of Republicans. ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by najdorf on 2020-09-10; known on 2040-12-31.
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China will win more gold medals than India in 2040 ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-15; known on 2040-12-31.
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Fareed Zakaria: US will be #1 in gold medals in 2040 ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-15; known on 2040-12-31.
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They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040 ( 55% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-05; known on 2040-12-31.
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Fareed Zakaria: Indonesia will win more gold medals than Brazil in 2040 ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-15; known on 2040-12-31.
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Universal literacy worldwide by 2040 for 15-24 year olds. ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-09; known on 2040-12-31.
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[Humans will understand human-level intelligence… (Richard Sutton: The Future of Artificial Intelligence Belongs to Search and Learning)] by 2040 ( 50% confidence )
Created by YuxiLiu on 2022-10-26; known on 2041-01-01.
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[Humans will understand human-level intelligence… (Richard Sutton: The Future of Artificial Intelligence Belongs to Search and Learning)] by 2030 ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by YuxiLiu on 2022-10-26; known on 2041-01-01.
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[Humans will understand human-level intelligence… (Richard Sutton: The Future of Artificial Intelligence Belongs to Search and Learning)] after 2040 ( 15% confidence )
Created by YuxiLiu on 2022-10-26; known on 2041-01-01.
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Alcor will perform >=1 cryopreservations in 2040. ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2041-01-01.
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Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 33% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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A professional athlete will not voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041. ( 38% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-11; known on 2041-01-01.
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The majority of Alcor cryopreservations as of 2011 will have maintained preservation continuity as of 2041. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2041-01-01.
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Linux most widely used operating system for personal desktop and laptop computers in the world by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Human-level AI by 2040 (Richard Sutton: Eyes On The Prize talk, 2022) ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by YuxiLiu on 2022-10-26; known on 2041-01-01.
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Alcor's Patient Trust Fund will be solvent in 2041. ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2041-01-01.
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A “theory of everything” combining quantum mechanics and general relativity found by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 31% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.