Skillshare.im will have active users. ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2014-01-19; known on 2016-01-19; judged wrong by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2016-01-20.

In 2015, China's GDP growth will be equal to or less than 5~%, and will not meet Li Keqiang's stated goal of 7% ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Tuxedage on 2015-03-07; known on 2016-02-02; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-19.

“I’d be shocked if China is currently growing at a rate above, say, 4%” —Anne Stevenson-Yang research director of J Capital ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-06; known on 2016-01-30; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-19.

J responds before Friday. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-13; known on 2016-01-16; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-18.

Grid search will be done running when I get home. ( 60% confidence )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-17; known on 2016-01-17; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-18.

Skyscraper (“The Address”) fire in Dubai was set intentionally ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by hedges on 2015-12-31; known on 2016-01-14; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-17.

The US Democratic Party fragments before the 2016 primary season. ( 6% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by papermachine on 2011-08-03; known on 2016-01-16; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-16.

HP MOR : The source of magic stores “souls” (brain states) long term and is able to simulate them, but only those of non-Muggles. ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Calien on 2015-02-02; known on 2015-03-15; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16.

I will learn to pick locks by next year ( 80% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-09-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16.

J's brother will join JB ( 70% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-13; known on 2015-09-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16.

JH will get a baritone by September ( 50% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-14; known on 2015-09-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16.

I will still be using PB by October ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-15; known on 2015-10-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16.

I will have over 300 predictions by 2016 ( 34% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-24; known on 2016-01-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16.

I will be a Worm character for Halloween ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-26; known on 2015-11-01; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16.

The FTSE 100 will be over 9000 on January 16th 2016 ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-13; known on 2016-01-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16.

My income will be 10% higher than it is now. ( 40% confidence )

Created by iajrz on 2015-09-23; known on 2016-01-16; judged wrong by iajrz on 2016-01-16.

All three of us will get a passing grade on tomorrow's exam ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by timujin on 2016-01-14; known on 2016-01-15; judged wrong by timujin on 2016-01-16.

Malheur insurgency to be resolved within a week. ( 38% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-08; known on 2016-01-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-16.

Roshith will be back in college in 2015. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by roshith on 2014-10-26; known on 2015-12-24; judged wrong by roshni on 2016-01-15.

I'll be able to stick to my 2015 New Year resolution of 'no potato chips or french fries' till Dec 31, 2015. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by roshni on 2014-12-30; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by roshni on 2016-01-15.

War between india & pakistan 2015 ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-11; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-13.

Why Apple Will Hit $1,650 by the End of 2015 and earn $610 billion revenue —Eric Jackson, Forbes ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-13; known on 2016-01-14; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-13.

The S&P 500 will fall by more than 1% on January 11, 2016 ( 87% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-11; known on 2017-01-12; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-12.

After the end of this phone call with Vayama, I will be able to successfully book my flight tickets on their website the first time I try to do so. ( 60% confidence )

Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-11; known on 2016-01-11; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-01-11.

At least one image generated by Deeplearning neaural networks will have seizure-causing effects in >0.1% of human population by 2016 ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by sdr on 2015-07-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Houshalter on 2016-01-11.

HP MoR: An event will take place between May 14th and May 16th which either narrowly invokes or narrowly avoids Professor McGonagall's ch.17 threat to “string [Harry] up by the gates of Hogwarts with [his] own intestines and pour fire down [his] throat.” ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cakoluchiam on 2013-07-18; known on 2014-05-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.

HP MoR: We will learn that the True Patronus by itself can block the Killing Curse, no matter who casts each spell. ( 46% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by 75th on 2013-08-13; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.

USA to initiate trade sanctions or legal action against China for cyber-espionage by 2016. ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by simplicio on 2013-02-20; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.

HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Quirrel ( 4% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.

The prophecy in HPMR refers to Harry and Death, not Harry and Voldemort. ( 13% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-23; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.

Draco/Tracey will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.

Neville/Luna will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.

Neville/Ginny will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.

Ten wins in Haylee (3p) v. Ten (1p) on OGS ( 70% confidence )

Created by Jach on 2016-01-10; known on 2016-01-11; judged wrong by Jach on 2016-01-10.