PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

GJP: #1101 Will Laurent Lamothe be ratified as Haiti’s Prime Minister before 1 April 2012? ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-03-06; known on 2012-04-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.

GJP: #1099 Before 1 April 2012, will Al-Saadi Gaddafi be extradited to Libya? ( 45% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-03-06; known on 2012-04-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.

My brother will become interested in Diablo 3 before the release date under the influence of his friends. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by williamycai on 2012-03-28; known on 2012-05-15; judged right by williamycai on 2012-04-03.

I will not play another game of Dota for another 3 weeks. ( 4% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by williamycai on 2012-03-28; known on 2012-04-18; judged wrong by williamycai on 2012-04-03.

John Carter won't do as bad as expected (4 wk gross > 80m) ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-09; known on 2012-04-09; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-04-03.

There will be a maximum of 3 people who have further contributed to my stats on google docs by Tuesday. ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JeffreyTse on 2012-04-01; known on 2012-04-03; judged right by JeffreyTse on 2012-04-02.

I will win my Yahoo Fantasy Basketball round 7-2. ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JeffreyTse on 2012-04-01; known on 2012-04-02; judged wrong by JeffreyTse on 2012-04-02.

i will cook and wash the dishes for us tonight! ( 90% confidence )

Created by happyday on 2012-04-02; known on 2012-04-02; judged right by happyday on 2012-04-02.

WrestleMania XXVIII: The Rock defeats John Cena ( 60% confidence )

Created by Jach on 2012-03-22; known on 2012-04-02; judged right by Jach on 2012-04-02.

WrestleMania XXVIII: CM Punk defeats Chris Jericho ( 55% confidence )

Created by Jach on 2012-03-22; known on 2012-04-02; judged right by Jach on 2012-04-02.

WrestleMania XXVIII: The Undertaker defeats Triple H ( 90% confidence )

Created by Jach on 2012-03-22; known on 2012-04-02; judged right by Jach on 2012-04-02.

WrestleMania XXVIII: Cody Rhodes defeats Big Show ( 49% confidence )

Created by Jach on 2012-03-22; known on 2012-04-02; judged wrong by Jach on 2012-04-02.

WrestleMania XXVIII: Randy Orton defeats Kane ( 49% confidence )

Created by Jach on 2012-03-22; known on 2012-04-02; judged wrong by Jach on 2012-04-02.

we will have sushi for dinner tonight ( 60% confidence )

Created by happyday on 2012-03-30; known on 2012-03-30; judged right by happyday on 2012-04-02.

i will buy a lip stick during the weekend ( 60% confidence )

Created by happyday on 2012-03-30; known on 2012-03-30; judged wrong by happyday on 2012-04-02.

My cable technician will not have all the necessary equipment for installation. ( 35% confidence )

Created by spqr0a1 on 2012-03-31; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by spqr0a1 on 2012-04-01.

GJP: #1059 Will Kim Jong-un attend an official, in-person meeting with any G8 head of government* before 1 April 2012? ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-04-01.

the Occupy Wall Street protest will begin suffering from communicable diseases and this cause the authorities to crack down and remove them all. ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-04-01.

GJP: #1055 Will North Korea successfully detonate a nuclear weapon, either atmospherically, underground, or underwater, between 9 January 2012 and 1 April 2012? ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-04-01.

I will have a profitable bot before April 1st, 2012. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Lemmih on 2011-12-22; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Lemmih on 2012-04-01.

First chapter of a fic stemming from my satire of John Galt's prediction is published by April 1. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-04-01.

I will have reduced excess fat to the point that I will have visible abs. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by waveman on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-03-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2012-03-31.

I will have achieved intermediate level weightlifting levels for all lifts as defined in my spreadsheet. ( 75% confidence )

Created by waveman on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-03-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2012-03-31.

I will have workable futures trading strategy in place. This is a replacement for another prediction where I put the wrong date in. ( 15% confidence )

Created by waveman on 2012-02-28; known on 2012-03-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2012-03-31.

“USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 31 Mar 2012” —Intrade ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-03-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-31.

Nivedit won't sign up for any Stanford courses in January or February, or, if he does, will drop all of them within 5 weeks. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-25; known on 2012-03-31; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-03-31.

Reddit: “teaching daughter to ride bike” pic is reposted as “autistic daughter”. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by muflax on 2011-12-30; known on 2012-04-30; judged right by muflax on 2012-03-31.

At least 15 people will attend the next Student Economics Association roundtable. ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Danny_Hintze on 2012-03-26; known on 2012-03-30; judged wrong by Danny_Hintze on 2012-03-30.

I will tinker with PredictionBook's source code before April 1 and manage to add a new feature. ( 6% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-13; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-03-30.

I will complete my Network+ Anki deck in less than 48 hours from now. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-29; known on 2012-03-31; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-30.

My wife and I will complete the 2nd version of the business plan within the next 36 hours. ( 79% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-29; known on 2012-03-31; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-30.

Lady Gaga will launch her next tour in Omaha, NE. ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Øx on 2011-08-29; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by saturn on 2012-03-29.

I will get an A in my OOPD class. ( 90% confidence )

Created by Lemmih on 2011-12-22; known on 2012-02-20; judged right by Lemmih on 2012-03-28.

tonight's dinner will be end before 9pm ( 40% confidence )

Created by happyday on 2012-03-28; known on 2012-03-28; judged right by happyday on 2012-03-28.

HP MoR: Priori Incantatum ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by gryffinp on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-29; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-03-28.

my husband will cook dinner for me when i come home ( 70% confidence )

Created by happyday on 2012-03-27; known on 2012-03-27; judged wrong by happyday on 2012-03-28.

HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be nothing (failure) ( 6% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )