PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be using the Time-turner to smuggle Hermione out under the Cloak ( 4% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be using the Time-turner to affect Lucius in some way ( 10% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be using the Time-turner to alter Hermione's testimony to something easily falsifiable ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

HPMoR : ch 81 : Harry will marry Hermione and thereby make this a matter between noble houses, and then turn that into a trial by lightsaber of hermy and draco ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by rohit507 on 2012-03-26; known on 2012-03-27; judged wrong by saturn on 2012-03-28.

HP MOR Ch81 Harry's solution is to use the time turner to go back in time and frame Lord Jugson for doing it by tampering with His/Hermoines/Dracos wands and false memory charming a student. ( 21% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Pringlescan4 on 2012-03-27; known on 2012-03-27; judged wrong by saturn on 2012-03-28.

HP MoR: ch 81: Harry's solution will be to set his hair on fire and run around in circles, screaming. ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-12-21.

HP MoR: Harry will confess to having arranged the attempted murder of Malfoy. ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by beo_shaffer on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

HP MoR: Nobody in the LW discussion thread will predict Harry's actual attempted solution (regardless of whether it fails). ( 25% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Grognor on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

I will be able to meet with my friend on tuesday afternoon 3pm, because design studio will run short. ( 60% confidence )

Created by williamycai on 2012-03-24; known on 2012-03-27; judged right by williamycai on 2012-03-27.

I will be able to meet with my friend on tuesday afternoon 3pm, because design studio will run short. ( 60% confidence )

Created by williamycai on 2012-03-24; known on 2012-03-27; judged right by williamycai on 2012-03-27.

Ubs will sell off its investment arm ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Laurablack on 2011-09-26; known on 2012-03-26; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-26.

Phil Goetz will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2012-03-25.

Keido will quote Dante's Inferno at least one more time before Guilty Crown ends ( 95% confidence )

Created by meisnewbie on 2012-01-23; known on 2012-04-16; judged wrong by meisnewbie on 2012-03-25.

The forum mafia Bayes calculator will be completed within a month. ( 70% confidence )

Created by meisnewbie on 2012-02-20; known on 2012-03-20; judged wrong by meisnewbie on 2012-03-25.

Sets, Logic, and Maths for Computing will arrive on or before 04/10/2012. ( 66% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-08; known on 2012-04-11; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-24.

Sets, Logic, and Maths for Computing will arrive on or before 04/05/2012. ( 33% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-08; known on 2012-04-06; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-24.

I will have nothing for breakfast, mcdonalds for lunch and chickens wings for dinner ( 80% confidence )

Created by williamycai on 2012-03-22; known on 2012-03-23; judged wrong by williamycai on 2012-03-23.

Ben won't show up to the tutorial today (23/3/12) ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JeffreyTse on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-23; judged right by JeffreyTse on 2012-03-23.

The Hunger Games film will not fail (>= 60% on Rotten Tomatoes). ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Christopher on 2012-01-29; known on 2012-03-24; judged right by Christopher on 2012-03-23.

I will record a sub 20 minute time in any ABC bi that I do this season – http://goo.gl/BCmJt ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-03-30; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-23.

I will still be using the RescueTime tracking tool after the 14 day trial is over. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-08; known on 2012-03-22; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-23.

HP MoR: Humans can be irrevocably transformed into House-Elves, and this is revealed in chapter 80. ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-19; known on 2012-03-22; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-03-23.

http://www.humanbirdwings.net/ will turn out to be a hoax. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by iemfi on 2012-03-21; known on 2012-04-21; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-03-22.

The hunger games will not meet wife's expectations and will disappoint her ( 20% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by williamycai on 2012-03-19; known on 2012-03-22; judged right by williamycai on 2012-03-22.

I will read Deus Ex: Icarus Effect in less than 1 month from now. ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-05; known on 2012-04-05; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-21.

Mitt Romney secures GOP nomination within 2 weeks after Super Tuesday. ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by smijer on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-03-20; judged wrong by smijer on 2012-03-21.

Peyton Manning will sign with the Redskins ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-07; known on 2012-08-16; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-03-20.

Nobody will have competed all of the requirements for Tuesday's class ( 50% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-18; known on 2012-03-20; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-20.

MoR: ch 78 will mention Amanda Knox ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-20; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-03-20.

Apple will announce a dividend on their March 19, 2012 conference call ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-03-19; known on 2012-03-20; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-03-19.

There will be 20 or more people at tonight's compDesGrp session ( 50% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-19; known on 2012-03-19; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-19.

I will complete the advanced revit modelling assessment 1 week before the due date. Due 24/3/2012 but I'll finish before the 18th. ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by williamycai on 2012-03-07; known on 2012-03-19; judged wrong by williamycai on 2012-03-19.

I will finish Capes by Thursday 15 March 2012 ( 75% confidence )

Created by richardw on 2012-03-04; known on 2012-03-15; judged right by richardw on 2012-03-18.

XiXiDu will not comment or post to LW for 5 years, round two. ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by papermachine on 2012-03-16; known on 2017-03-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-03-16.

XiXiDu will not post or comment on LW for one year. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by papermachine on 2012-03-16; known on 2013-03-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-03-16.

I will finish reading any of my books to completion ( 50% confidence )

Created by Jach on 2012-02-09; known on 2012-03-16; judged wrong by Jach on 2012-03-16.

HP MoR: HPMOR will update at least twice in 2012 ( 95% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Isaac on 2012-03-16.

I will bench press my own bodyweight or more for 5 sets of 5 reps with 1 minute rests before June 2012. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-06-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-16.

HP MoR: “A new chapter of HP:MoR, which would be more than two pages in length, will be posted” —Bugmaster ( 97% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-03-15.

I will be allowed to take the internal exams. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-18; known on 2012-03-15; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-03-15.

This magic the gathering ebay auction will sell for more than $190 (pre-shipping): http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=170797982659#ht_500wt_1413 ( 85% confidence )

Created by gsaines on 2012-03-14; known on 2012-03-15; judged right by gsaines on 2012-03-15.

Grognor (http://lesswrong.com/user/Grognor) will reach 1000 karma on LessWrong by September 27, 2012, one year after his first comment. ( 87% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Grognor on 2012-01-04; known on 2012-09-27; judged right by Grognor on 2012-03-13.

90% of us will be drunk on the first night of camp ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by dkim126 on 2012-03-08; known on 2012-03-09; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-13.

The week end class trip won't happen due to rain ( 29% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by wajdiatwah on 2012-03-06; known on 2012-03-09; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-13.

I will score above 100 in at least one of the two “IQ tests” I take today. (iqout.com and iqtest.dk) ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-12; known on 2012-03-12; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-03-12.

I will not consider any of the next four chapters of HPMR to be as good as chapter 74. ( 64% confidence; 6 wagers; 13 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-29; known on 2012-03-15; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-03-12.

CDS on Greek Debt will be triggered by May 1 (about 6 weeks) ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-05; known on 2012-05-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-03-11.

I will read through Alicorn's Living Luminously sequence by the end of March. Any skimming not made up for will result as a failure. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Christopher on 2012-03-06; known on 2012-04-01; judged right by Christopher on 2012-03-10.

Zeo vitamin D morning: Week 1 & 2: placebo then vitamin D ( 65% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-03-09; known on 2012-03-09; judged right by gwern on 2012-03-09.

There will be a general strike in Spain on 2012 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by modulus on 2012-01-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by modulus on 2012-03-09.

Statistics

Judged Predictions