PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

If XiXiDu has taken a typical IQ test in the last 10 years or takes one this year, he will score at least 115. ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by muflax on 2012-03-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-03-08.

Tutor will post up choice results and I will get my choice of selected reading; delirious new york, for the subjection “the city” ( 20% confidence )

Created by williamycai on 2012-03-07; known on 2012-03-08; judged right by williamycai on 2012-03-08.

Part 2 of Shikamaru vs the Logical Fallacies to be ready within 2 months ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-08; known on 2012-03-08; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-08.

iPad 3 will have a quad-core CPU ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-14; known on 2012-03-08; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-03-07.

Next iPad refresh (“iPad 3” or similar) will have a model with a >= 240 dpi primary display ( 85% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-10; known on 2012-04-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-03-07.

I will finish the translation of the first 13 chapters of “Facing the Singularity” until the end of february. ( 81% confidence )

Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-03; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2012-03-06.

Votes in Russian legislative elections will be re-counted (due to vote fraud and other irregularities). ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Serge on 2011-12-06; known on 2012-03-06; judged wrong by Serge on 2012-03-06.

GJP: #1075 Will a run-off be required in the 2012 Russian presidential election? ( 35% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-31; known on 2012-03-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-06.

[Russia] Vladimir Putin will receive at least 60% of the vote (official election results). ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by chemotaxis101 on 2012-03-02; known on 2012-03-09; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-03-05.

I will be able to complete 100 good-form push ups in 6 weeks' time following the program at hundredpushups.com. ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by roshni on 2011-11-23; known on 2012-01-04; judged wrong by roshni on 2012-03-05.

My guinea pig will learn to move in a circle on command in 2 months time. ( 37% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by roshni on 2011-11-23; known on 2012-01-30; judged wrong by roshni on 2012-03-05.

Chrome will be ahead of Internet Explorer (all versions) in the StatCounter daily Global Stats for next Sunday. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by faws on 2012-02-27; known on 2012-03-05; judged wrong by faws on 2012-03-05.

UCSB Gauchos men's basketball team will win 20 or more games in the 2011 – 2012 regular season. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by dakyne on 2011-07-14; known on 2012-03-04; judged wrong by dakyne on 2012-03-05.

GJP: #1044 Will the United Kingdom's Tehran embassy officially reopen by 29 February 2012? ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-03-05.

GJP: #1043 Will Lucas Papademos resign, lose re-election/confidence vote, or vacate the office of Prime Minister of Greece before 1 March 2012? ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-03-05.

I will become a Peter Thiel Fellow. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Grognor on 2012-01-08; known on 2012-08-06; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-03-05.

JG will bail on this project ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-01; known on 2012-03-04; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-05.

Flight TT543 will be within 10 minutes of on time arrival into Melbourne ( 60% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-02; known on 2012-03-03; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-05.

I will get a remote researcher position at the Singularity Institute before the end of the month. ( 15% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-06; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-04.

I will complete The Pragmatic Programmer before March, 2012. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-07; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-04.

Zea will take an extended break from KS either before he finishes Shizune's route, or he will switch to some other heroine. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by meisnewbie on 2012-02-11; known on 2012-02-18; judged right by meisnewbie on 2012-03-03.

My Introduction to Java deck will be the most downloaded Anki deck containing the word “Java” on 03-01-2012. ( 66% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-02; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-03-03.

“At least one serious contender for the Republican nomination in 2012 will be someone newly elected to his or her state's governorship in 2010.” —Nate Silver ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known on 2012-03-02; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-03-03.

GJP: #1034 Will Japan officially become a member of the Trans-Pacific Partnership before 1 March 2012? ( 30% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2012-03-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-03.

I will have done more than 5000cals of exercise by the end of Friday ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-27; known on 2012-03-02; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-02.

'The seemingly N^2 patent lawsuits among all the major smartphone players will be resolved through a grand cross-licensing bargain, cut in a dark, smoky room, whose terms will only be revealed through some congratulatory emails that leak to the press. Non ( 30% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-02-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-01.

NGE: Sadamoto's Eva manga, Asuka will try to go berserk and will be killed by the MPEs; 3rd Impact subsequently starts ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-01.

GJP: the Saudi monarchy continue to rule Saudi Arabia as of March 1, 2012 ( 93% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2012-03-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-03-01.

I will move out of the small suburban city in northern California where I have lived for 14 years, before March 1, 2012 ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-07-21; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-03-01.

GJP: #1070 Will Israel release Palestinian politician Aziz Duwaik from prison before 1 March 2012? ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-23; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-01.

IT / Scarlet Tea & Cakes 1/3/2012 ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by doctor_regtools on 2012-03-01; known on 2012-03-01; judged right by Michael Stevens on 2012-03-01.

PredictionBook's email notification system will be fixed by the end of this year. ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-02-29.

PredictionBook's email notification system will be fixed by the end of this year. ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-02-29.

“New Zealand to be in recession in December 2011 quarter” -ipredict ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-16; known on 2012-02-22; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-29.

“NZ Government to announce before 2012 it will waive visitor visa requirement for India passport holders” -ipredict ( 2% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-29.

I'll make it out of studio by 4:45 ( 50% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-27; known on 2012-02-28; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-28.

I will earn 300 dollars worth of bitcoin by the end of the month. ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by kiba on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by kiba on 2012-02-28.

Google Code Search or an equivalent/better successor product from Google will be publicly accessible on 2012-02-15 UTC ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-15; known on 2012-02-15; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-02-28.

I will go to New York city on feb 14 and build an awsome construction ( 95% confidence )

Created by b.crouzier on 2012-01-17; known on 2012-02-14; judged right by b.crouzier on 2012-02-28.

I will have enough student's to run my studio ( 80% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-27; known on 2012-02-28; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-28.

“Rescind mandate asking Catholic employers to provide contraceptives” petition to the White House will reach 25k signatures by the deadline. ( 90% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-02; known on 2012-02-27; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-02-28.

The final name for the SI spinoff currently called “rationality org” will be announced on Less Wrong within a week. ( 15% confidence; 7 comments )

Created by beo_shaffer on 2012-02-18; known on 2012-02-25; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-02-28.

I will finish reading the EML archives by 2012. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-25; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-27.

The final name for the SI spinoff currently called “rationality org” will be announced on Less Wrong within a week. ( 15% confidence; 7 comments )

Created by beo_shaffer on 2012-02-18; known on 2012-02-25; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-02-28.

I'll get a flight quote by 6pm ( 60% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-27; known on 2012-02-27; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-27.

I will attend the next Chicago LW meetup. ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-16; known on 2012-03-16; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-26.

GJP: #1066 Will Yemen's next presidential election commence before 1 April 2012? ( 65% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-23; known on 2012-04-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-25.

I will enter at least 10 Boy Charlton Biathlons this season – http://goo.gl/BCmJt ( 55% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-03-30; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-25.

Dan's RTC abstract will be accepted ( 54% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-11-07; known on 2012-02-15; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-25.

Both RTC abstracts will be accepted ( 35% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-11-07; known on 2012-02-15; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-25.

Statistics

Judged Predictions