PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Det tager mig <30 minutter at køre på cykel fra Lundsgade til Scandiagade ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OptiMind on 2012-01-12; known on 2012-01-12; judged right by OptiMind on 2012-01-12.

'ICANN still will not have introduced new generic TLDs.' —FtT ( 70% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-02-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-11.

Night 11: pill was Vitamin D ( 30% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-11; known on 2012-01-11; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-11.

'Apple launches its long-awaited music streaming service' in 2011 —Chris O'Brien ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-10.

The price of gold will fall in real terms. —Costanza ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-10.

'The rate of inflation of U.S. dollars will rise.' —Costanza ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-10.

'“Core inflation” of the U.S. dollar (which ignores food and energy prices) shall remain below 2.0%: 80%' —CronoDAS ( 75% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-10.

Obama's approval rating will be lower 1 Jan 2012 than 1 Jan 2011. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-10; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-10.

Night 10: pill was Vitamin D ( 35% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-01-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-10.

An e-reader device incorporating an “electrowetting” display (irrespective of maker) will clear FCC approval, or be available from online stores in US or EU, by the next CES show. ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-09-04; known on 2012-01-15; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-01-10.

LSU will win the BCS national championship for the 2011 season. ( 70% confidence )

Created by RobertLumley on 2011-11-10; known on 2012-01-11; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2012-01-10.

Project and finance management will turn from 6 credit points to 12 credit points by the end of this year. ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by puya on 2011-04-06; known on 2011-12-29; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2012-01-10.

Immigration will reduce by 50 percent until the end of this year. ( 24% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by puya on 2011-03-30; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2012-01-10.

Nadal will regain the #1 ranking at some point this year ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-03; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2012-01-10.

Night 9: pill was Vitamin D ( 65% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-01-09; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-09.

I have heard 'raging waves' before. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-01-09; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-09.

Tomorrow morning, I will have negative karma on LessWrong. ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-08; known on 2012-01-09; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-09.

Joseph is at Elizabeth's apartment ( 40% confidence )

Created by RobertLumley on 2012-01-08; known on 2012-01-08; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2012-01-08.

'The removal of DADT by the US military will result in fewer than 300 soldiers leaving the military in protest.' —JoshuaZ ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-08.

Someone from the IAI will ring me up on the day of the President's speech. The call will be regarding my non-attendance. ( 20% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-01-09; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-08.

'Facebook credits expand beyond facebook' in 2011 —Brian Breslin ( 20% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-29; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-08.

'WordPress ecosystem grows up' in 2011 —Brian Breslin ( 20% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-29; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-08.

Night 8: pill was Vitamin D ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-08; known on 2012-01-08; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-08.

Googling 'real websites' will throw up at least one amusing hit or autocomplete. (only first-page hits count) ( 20% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-08; known on 2012-01-08; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-08.

Googling 'real websites' will throw up at least one bizarre hit or autocomplete. (only first-page hits count) ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-08; known on 2012-01-08; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-08.

I will enjoy this random youtube thing. ( 20% confidence )

Created by yurifury on 2012-01-08; known on 2012-01-08; judged wrong by yurifury on 2012-01-08.

Won't have broadband tomorrow morning. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-01-08; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-08.

“Dec 2011 unemployment rate to be 9.4% or higher” —Intrade ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-01-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-07.

Night 7: pill was Vitamin D ( 35% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-01-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-07.

Will try out Trello today. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-01-08; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-07.

Will have changed Windows' display language to Japanese by Sunday. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-08; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-07.

I will brainstorm ideas for anything for the first 5-10 minutes after I wake up in the mornings, and record them all. I will do this every day for at least 1 month. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by divad12 on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-12-15; judged right by divad12 on 2012-01-07.

Reading my classmates’ public argument on Facebook will amuse me greatly ( 20% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-01-07; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-07.

Reading my classmates' public argument on Facebook will amuse me moderately. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-01-07; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-07.

Electronics project due Wednesday. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-01-07; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-07.

Stats assignment for today will include χ^2 or student's-t distributions. ( 10% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-01-07; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-07.

I will go to school tomorrow and friday. ( 100% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by ahartell on 2012-01-04; known on 2012-01-07; judged right by ahartell on 2012-01-06.

“There will be a major war, starting in the Middle East. Israel will lose (75%). China will probably join in on the radical-Muslim side. Iran will try to use its nukes but they will be duds. Israel will not use theirs…” —jdgalt ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-01-01.

Australian refugees will be processed through Nauru again by the end of 2011. ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by DavidPercival on 2011-06-06; known on 2012-01-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-06.

Night 6: pill was Vitamin D ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-01-06; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-06.

Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )

Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.

No contact with intelligent aliens be made in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 31 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.

Yoshiyuki Sadamoto will release 5-8 stages of the Evangelion manga in 2011 ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-03-02; known on 2012-01-10; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.

Yoshiyuki Sadamoto will release 3-5 stages of the Evangelion manga in 2011 ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-03-02; known on 2012-01-10; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.

Yoshiyuki Sadamoto will release >=9 stages of the Evangelion manga in 2011 ( 4% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-03-02; known on 2012-01-10; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.

Yoshiyuki Sadamoto will release 0-2 stages of the Evangelion manga in 2011 ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-03-02; known on 2012-01-10; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.

Will have completed the maths FAC for ACET by Saturday. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-07; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.

'Ame Nochi Kumochi Nochi Hare' was the theme song of one of the 'Aa Megamisama' animes/OVAs. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-01-06; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.

Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )

Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.

No contact with intelligent aliens be made in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 31 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.

Statistics

Judged Predictions