PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

The Supreme Court will hear an appeal challenging Obamacare and uphold the acts in 2011. —Capitol Commentary ( 40% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-23.

Night 23: pill was Vitamin D ( 35% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-23; known on 2012-01-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-23.

I will squat my own bodyweight or more for 5 sets of 5 reps with 1 minute rests before June 2012. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-06-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-23.

I will deadlift my own bodyweight or more for 5 sets of 5 reps with 1 minute rests before June 2012. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-06-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-23.

Will submit my database case study before the deadline. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-13; known on 2012-01-17; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-23.

My interpretation of wedrifid's position is “about right”. ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-22; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-22.

Night 22: pill was Vitamin D ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-22; known on 2012-01-22; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-22.

“Michele Bachmann to win the 2012 South Carolina Primary” —Intrade ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-01-28; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-22.

Night 21: pill was Vitamin D ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-21; known on 2012-01-21; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-21.

Night 20: pill was Vitamin D ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-20; known on 2012-01-20; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-20.

GJP: #1027 Who will win the January 2012 Taiwan Presidential election? (Ma Ying-jeou of the KMT) ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-20.

GJP: #1048 Will S&P downgrade the AAA long-term credit rating of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) by 30 March 2012? ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-14; known on 2012-03-30; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-20.

After going to the hexagonal plane, but before a plot-required exit to the world map in Ar Tonelico, you fight Bourd and Misha rejoins your party. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-01-19; known on 2012-01-20; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2012-01-19.

After going to the hexagonal plane, but before a plot-required exit to the world map in Ar Tonelico, you fight Bourd. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-01-19; known on 2012-01-20; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2012-01-19.

After going to the hexagonal plane, but before a plot-required exit to the world map in Ar Tonelico, Misha rejoins your party. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-01-19; known on 2012-01-20; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2012-01-19.

Night 19: pill was Vitamin D ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-19; known on 2012-01-19; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-19.

Google Search will be inaccessible to US visitors for at least 4 hours due to a “blackout” protesting pending legislation, before 2013 ( 5% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.

Google Search will be inaccessible to US visitors for at least 4 hours due to a “blackout” protesting pending legislation, before 2013 ( 5% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.

Night 18: pill was Vitamin D ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-18; known on 2012-01-18; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-18.

HonoreDB's 'universally correct method' is a mathematical construct. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-16; known on 2012-01-20; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-18.

Nobody will independently recreate my idea in response to http://lesswrong.com/r/lesswrong/lw/9eo/a_call_for_solutions_and_a_tease_of_mine/. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by HonoreDB on 2012-01-16; known on 2012-01-19; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-01-18.

In the next three days, somebody will post an idea on http://lesswrong.com/r/lesswrong/lw/9eo/a_call_for_solutions_and_a_tease_of_mine/ that I find novel and intriguing. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by HonoreDB on 2012-01-16; known on 2012-01-19; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-01-18.

I scored a 90 or higher on my calc quiz today. ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ahartell on 2012-01-12; known on 2012-01-26; judged right by ahartell on 2012-01-17.

Night 17: pill was Vitamin D ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-17; known on 2012-01-17; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-17.

I will be defrauded, stolen from, robbed, burgled, or assaulted during my stay in Mexico City. ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-17.

I will be murdered during my stay in Mexico City. ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-17.

Night 16: pill was Vitamin D ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-16; known on 2012-01-16; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-16.

“Michele Bachmann to win the 2012 South Carolina Primary” —Intrade ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-01-28; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-22.

“Michele Bachmann to win the 2012 South Carolina Primary” —Intrade ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-01-28; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-22.

Gold will be $2000 by Jan 2012 ( 45% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by eduffy on 2011-11-03; known on 2012-01-16; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-16.

In the comments of http://lesswrong.com/r/lesswrong/lw/9eo/a_call_for_solutions_and_a_tease_of_mine/, somebody will mention prediction markets in the next three days. ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by HonoreDB on 2012-01-16; known on 2012-01-19; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-16.

In the comments of http://lesswrong.com/r/lesswrong/lw/9eo/a_call_for_solutions_and_a_tease_of_mine/, somebody will mention prediction markets in the next three days. ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by HonoreDB on 2012-01-16; known on 2012-01-19; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-16.

SpaceX to successfully dock with the ISS by January 15, 2012 ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-19; known on 2012-01-15; judged wrong by kiba on 2012-01-15.

Night 15: pill was Vitamin D ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-15; known on 2012-01-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-15.

I will like the second season of Top Shot more than the first. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-15.

Will have changed Windows' display language to Japanese by next Sunday. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-01-15; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-15.

Asif Ali Zardari will be ousted from the presidency of Pakistan during 2011 due to huge military-civilian clashes and be replaced by a president who will forbid US drone flights ( 4% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-14.

Average global temperature will be higher for 2011 than 2010. ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-14.

'At year's end, the district court will still not have issued a final judgment on the Google Book Search settlement.' —FtT ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-02-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-14.

GJP: #1025 Will the Freedom and Justice Party win at least 20 percent of the seats in the first People's Assembly (Majlis al-Sha’b) election in post-Mubarak Egypt? ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-14.

'the first flight of SpaceX's Falcon 1e rocket' —Sketerpot ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-14.

Blue Waters built, fully online, and capable of >1 sustained petaflops ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-14.

The USA will refuse again to commit to new Emmissions Regulations at COP17 ( 70% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by general on 2011-11-17; known on 2011-12-09; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-14.

On 31 Dec 2011, there will be no generally available consumer-level PC, as delivered from the factory, that has a clock speed of more than 5 GHz. ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Richard_Kennaway on 2011-01-02; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-14.

Night 14: pill was Vitamin D ( 60% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2012-01-14; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-14.

France to lose AAA credit rating before midnight ET 30 Jun 2012 —Intrade ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-08; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-13.

Sarah Palin is mounting a 2012 presidential campaign ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-07-04; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-13.

Night 13: pill was Vitamin D ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-13; known on 2012-01-13; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-13.

the dog will have a good life ( 79% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by kim13579 on 2012-01-12; known on 2012-01-26; judged right by kim13579 on 2012-01-12.

Night 12: pill was Vitamin D ( 70% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-12; known on 2012-01-12; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-12.

Statistics

Judged Predictions