PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Night 32: pill was Vitamin D ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-02; known on 2012-02-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-02.

“Submit ACTA to Senate” petition will reach 25k signatures by the end of this month. ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-26; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-02-02.

'Facebook will have an IPO within 1 year: 40% confidence' —Arthur Breitman ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-09; known on 2012-06-09; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-02.

“Facebook will back into an IPO by buying Yahoo” —Mr Windows ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-05; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-02.

“No IPO for Facebook” —Cringely ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-05; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-02.

‘Facebook will have an IPO within 2 years: 80% confidence’ —Arthur Breitman ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-09; known on 2013-06-07; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-02.

GJP: #1038 Will Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa remain King of Bahrain through 31 January 2012? ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by faws on 2012-02-01.

“iPad 3 to be formally announced in January 2012” -ipredict ( 9% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-26; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-02-01.

“The Prime Minister of New Zealand as a result of the 2011 New Zealand General Election was an electorate candidate for the National Party in that election and/or appears on that party's list.” -ipredict ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-17; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by faws on 2012-02-01.

Pill was modafinil. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Lemmih on 2012-02-01; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by Lemmih on 2012-02-01.

Grognor will host a meetup at his university by the end of January 2012, and I will successfully convince either gwern or drethelin that I attended Grognor's meetup. ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by papermachine on 2011-11-30; known on 2012-02-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.

GJP: #1039 Will Bashar al-Assad remain President of Syria through 31 January 2012? ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-01.

Grognor will hold a meetup at his university by the end of January 2012, and me & drethelin will donate $10 to charity as agreed in #lesswrong ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-30; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.

Grognor will hold a meetup at his university by the end of January 2012. ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-30; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.

The Bitcoin price will hit 8 $/฿ in January 2012 UTC. ( 55% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Mqrius on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.

Bitcoin >$9000 by February. ( 0% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.

Night 31: pill was Vitamin D ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-01; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-01.

Homework due this week will be done on time ( 70% confidence )

Created by Jach on 2012-01-30; known on 2012-02-04; judged right by Jach on 2012-02-01.

I will eat no more than 1000kcal/day (± 10%) in January. ( 95% confidence )

Created by Lemmih on 2012-01-12; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by Lemmih on 2012-02-01.

Pill was modafinil. ( 20% confidence )

Created by Lemmih on 2012-01-31; known on 2012-01-31; judged wrong by Lemmih on 2012-01-31.

Night 30: pill was Vitamin D ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-31; known on 2012-01-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-31.

“The Dishonest Minority” does not appear in the final title of Bruce Schneier's book with that working title. ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-05-10; known on 2014-05-10; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2012-01-30.

Night 29: pill was Vitamin D ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-30; known on 2012-01-30; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-30.

I will ask out the person I currently have a crush on. They will say no. ( 65% confidence; 11 wagers; 15 comments )

Created by Leo on 2012-01-25; known on 2012-02-09; judged right by Leo on 2012-01-30.

3rd Test Australia v India at Perth: India Wins ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Akshay Rawat on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-01-17; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-30.

Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal will play a 5-set match this sunday (Australian Open: men's final). ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by chemotaxis101 on 2012-01-28; known on 2012-01-29; judged right by chimpsky on 2012-06-10.

TechDirt: CLT's 'Security Theater' will be featured in this week's “funniest/most insightful comments”. ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-28; known on 2012-01-30; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-30.

PD will have 50 or more paid trucks on the system before the end of 2011. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Matt on 2011-02-11; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Matt on 2012-01-30.

Night 28: pill was Vitamin D ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-29; known on 2012-01-29; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-29.

My nausea will end within 30 minutes of taking 520mg of activated charcoal. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-29; known on 2012-01-29; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-29.

I will regret not attending the IAI President's speech. ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-01-30; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-29.

“Michele Bachmann to dropout of the 2012 Presidential race before midnight ET 05 Feb 2012” —Intrade ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-02-05; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-28.

Eliezer will reply to my PM in the next 2 days. The reply will be a go-ahead. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-27; known on 2012-01-29; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-28.

Eliezer will have replied to my PM by tomorrow morning. The reply will be a go-ahead. ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-27; known on 2012-01-28; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-28.

Night 27: pill was Vitamin D ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-27; known on 2012-01-27; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-27.

I will receive <10 items of anonymous feedback on my form. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-27; known on 2012-01-27; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-27.

I will receive <10 pull requests for the GitHub repo for gwern.net. ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-27; known on 2012-01-27; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-27.

Night 26: pill was Vitamin D ( 35% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-26; known on 2012-01-26; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-26.

Kefit will die before stage 8 in Asakura P ( 60% confidence )

Created by meisnewbie on 2012-01-26; known on 2012-01-26; judged right by meisnewbie on 2012-01-26.

GJP: #1059 Will Kim Jong-un attend an official, in-person meeting with any G8 head of government* before 1 April 2012? ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-04-01.

GJP: #1059 Will Kim Jong-un attend an official, in-person meeting with any G8 head of government* before 1 April 2012? ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-04-01.

Night 25: pill was Vitamin D ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-25; known on 2012-01-25; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-25.

“Michele Bachmann to win the 2012 New Hampshire Primary” —Intrade ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-25.

The Japanese Language pack install will be successful. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-25; known on 2012-01-25; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-25.

My PC will realise Japanese isn't an installed language after I run CCleaner's registry cleanup. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-25; known on 2012-01-25; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-25.

End Acta petition to the White House will have 25k signatures by Monday. ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-24; known on 2012-01-30; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-25.

End Acta petition to the White house will have 25k signatures in 2 weeks. ( 99% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-24; known on 2012-02-07; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-25.

Night 24: pill was Vitamin D ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2012-01-24; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-24.

Will have college tomorrow. ( 40% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-23; known on 2012-01-24; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-24.

“Leprechauns” (http://leanpub.com/leprechauns) will top the $720 in sales suggested by pre-publication declarations of interest (60 interested readers at an average of $12), within two weeks. ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-01-05; known on 2012-01-19; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-01-24.

Statistics

Judged Predictions