PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

I got an 80 or higher on my calc quiz. ( 100% confidence )

Created by ahartell on 2012-01-17; known on 2012-02-04; judged right by ahartell on 2012-02-10.

I got a 90 or higher on my calc quiz today. ( 90% confidence )

Created by ahartell on 2012-01-17; known on 2012-02-04; judged right by ahartell on 2012-02-10.

I will eat a slice of bread with cheese next Friday. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-02-03; known on 2012-02-10; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-02-10.

I will make it to the top of camelback mountain tomorrow morning. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Primeval on 2012-02-10; known on 2012-02-10; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-10.

'The FCC’s recently-announced network neutrality rules will continue to attract criticism from both ends of the political spectrum, and will be the subject of critical hearings in the Republican House, but neither Congress nor the courts will overturn the ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-02-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-10.

I will still be using prediction book by January 2012 ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by roshni on 2011-11-18; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-10.

Miley Cyrus will fade out of the spotlight in 2 years with the cut from Hannah Montana ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by kimmjaynedowling on 2010-02-10; known on 2012-02-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-10.

Night 39: pill was Vitamin D ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-10; known on 2012-02-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-10.

I will pass the Institute of Actuaries' entry exam. ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-20; known on 2012-02-15; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-02-10.

Pill was Bupropion ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-09; known on 2012-02-09; judged right by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-10.

My Network+ exam guide will arrive on or before 02/17/2012. ( 90% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-08; known on 2012-02-18; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-10.

My Network+ exam guide will arrive on or before 02/13/2012. ( 33% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-08; known on 2012-02-14; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-10.

Recompile of qutecom depending on boost-1.42 instead of boost-1.46 will by itself fix segfault error ( 70% confidence )

Created by Jach on 2012-02-09; known on 2012-02-09; judged right by Jach on 2012-02-10.

The Opportunity rover will continue doing science (either mobile or as a fixed station) for at least another six months. ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-09; known on 2012-02-09; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-09.

Jeff will defriend me on Facebook sometime in the next three days. ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 16 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-26; known on 2012-01-29; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-09.

Pill was Bupropion ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-09; known on 2012-02-09; judged right by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-10.

Night 38: pill was Vitamin D ( 25% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-09; known on 2012-02-09; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-09.

Pill was Bupropion ( 65% confidence )

Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-08; known on 2012-02-08; judged right by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-08.

GJP: #1074 Will Libyan government forces regain control* of the city of Bani Walid before 6 February 2012? ( 60% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-31; known on 2012-02-06; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-08.

I will obtain a PS3 on or before 6/8/2012. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-06; known on 2012-06-08; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-08.

Part 2 of Shikamaru vs the Logical Fallacies to be ready within a month ( 45% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-08; known on 2012-02-08; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-08.

Night 37: pill was Vitamin D ( 55% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-08; known on 2012-02-08; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-08.

I'll get an A in “history of psychology” ( 50% confidence )

Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-02; known on 2012-02-27; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-08.

I will complete exercise 11 of Learning Ruby the Hard Way within the next 28 hours. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-07; known on 2012-02-08; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-08.

androidx86 generic_x86-20120208.iso will boot to a working GUI in VMWare ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-02-08; known on 2012-02-08; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-02-08.

Pill was Bupropion ( 35% confidence )

Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-07; known on 2012-02-07; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-07.

Train on Monday arrives on time (within 5 minutes) ( 80% confidence )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-03; known on 2012-02-07; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-07.

Train on Sunday arrives on time (within 5 minutes) ( 80% confidence )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-03; known on 2012-02-07; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-07.

Night 36: pill was Vitamin D ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-07; known on 2012-02-07; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-07.

“Ron Paul to dropout of the 2012 Presidential race before midnight ET 05 Feb 2012” -Intrade ( 6% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-19; known on 2012-02-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-06.

Night 35: pill was Vitamin D ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-06; known on 2012-02-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-06.

“Rescind mandate asking Catholic employers to provide contraceptives” petition to the White House will reach 25k signatures by the end of this week. ( 50% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-02; known on 2012-02-06; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-02-06.

Salminen 2012's “reasoning abilities”/“reasoning skills” measure will be a matrix-style IQ/Gf/fluid intelligence test. ( 80% confidence; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-28; known on 2012-02-28; judged right by gwern on 2012-07-25.

Average daily global oil production (crude+condensate according to EIA figures) will not exceed 75 million barrels/day in any month of 2011 ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by scav on 2011-01-11; known on 2012-01-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-05.

'the death toll for Americans will be higher than it was for 2010' in 2011 in Afghanistan —Capital Commentary ( 85% confidence; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-05.

“The U.S Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics (www.bts.gov) will report a lower number of total highway vehicle miles traveled in 2010 than in 2005.” ( 42% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2012-01-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-05.

Pill was modafinil. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Lemmih on 2012-02-04; known on 2012-02-05; judged right by Lemmih on 2012-02-05.

papermachine will not donate to the Internet Archive ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-04; known on 2012-02-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-04.

I will continue to work on the game “The City” by next month. ( 33% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by kiba on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-04.

Night 34: pill was Vitamin D ( 70% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-04; known on 2012-02-04; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-04.

Night 33: pill was Vitamin D ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-03; known on 2012-02-03; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-03.

Eureqa will generate a (reasonably) elegant relation between the marks and attendance of Computer Science and Statistics. ( 20% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-03; known on 2012-02-03; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-02-03.

Eureqa will generate a (reasonably) elegant relation between the marks and attendance of Computer Science and Statistics. ( 20% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-03; known on 2012-02-03; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-02-03.

Eureqa will generate a (reasonably) elegant relation between the marks and attendance of Computer Science and Statistics. ( 20% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-03; known on 2012-02-03; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-02-03.

Eureqa will generate a (reasonably) elegant relation between the marks and attendance of Computer Science and Statistics. ( 20% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-03; known on 2012-02-03; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-02-03.

I will sleep more than 5 hours tonight, although I took Modafinil. ( 60% confidence )

Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-02; known on 2012-02-03; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-03.

Pill was modafinil. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Lemmih on 2012-02-02; known on 2012-02-03; judged right by Lemmih on 2012-02-02.

My self-promoting link on /r/shakespeare will have karma >0 and <11. http://www.reddit.com/r/shakespeare/comments/oy0rb/the_tragedy_of_prince_hamlet_and_the_philosophers/ ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by HonoreDB on 2012-01-26; known on 2012-02-02; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-02-02.

GJP: #1026 Will Joseph Kabila remain president of the Democratic Republic of the Congo through 31 January 2012? ( 60% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-02.

LW User:Morendil will tag >=500 predictions on PB.com using my suggested ad hoc scheme. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-04; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-02.