'SpaceX will successfully complete orbit-matching and docking with the International Space Station' —Sketerpot ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

'Largest living animal filmed: a 76-metre octopus in the Mariana Trench. By coincidence, even larger creatures are then discovered when the first robot probes drill through the ice of Europa.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 0% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

“Any US Supreme Court Justice to announce retirement/resignation before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

Roberts/Scalia/Thomas/Alito will resign from the Supreme Court and be replaced by a more liberal justice in 2011 —Capitol Commentary ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

'Hillary Clinton will step down as Secretary of State' in 2011 —Capitol Commentary ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

“For all practical purposes, the Mexican state won’t survive to see 2012.” —Jeff Vail ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

Obama's approval rating will fall below 23% during 2011. —Capital Commentary ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

There will be an earthquake in California that results in at least 1000 human deaths before 2012. ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

“Bashar al-Assad to no longer be President of Syria before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

“USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran by 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 6% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

“Robert Mugabe to no longer be President of Zimbabwe before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

“By 2012, scientists will have announced a cure for breast cancer and mastectomies will have become almost obsolete” ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

“Euro/US Dollar to close ON or ABOVE 1.4000 on 30 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-01.

“Feb 2012 (G12) Gold Futures to close ON or ABOVE 1600 on 30 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-01.

“Feb 2012 (G12) Gold Futures to close ON or ABOVE 1700 on 30 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-01.

“The US Economy will go into Recession during 2011” —Intrade ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-01.

Apple will release the iPhone 5 and it will be available in white in 2011. ( 51% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-01.

Oil prices at >=$120 by Jan 2012 ( 52% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-01.

'Iran will test a nuclear weapon.' in 2011 —Capitol Commentary ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.

'Iran will test a nuclear weapon.' in 2011 —Capitol Commentary ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.

Wikileaks will release files from a major American bank in 2011 ( 44% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.

'Google will buy Twitter' in 2011 —Chris O'Brien ( 18% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.

I will be the primary developer of an app in Apple's iOS App Store, where such app is published and publicly available before 2012-01-01 UTC ( 27% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.

'In 2011, a new law will be proposed in some jurisdiction which specifically: Protects cryonics patients.' —icebrand ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-01-01.

PragmataPro open-sourcing campaign will reach its $220,000 goal ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-11; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.

C1 marks are more strongly correlated with S1 attendance than C1 attendance. ( 10% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-01.

Dow Jones below 10,000 at end of year. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-05; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

'In 2011, a new law will be proposed in some jurisdiction which specifically: Restricts cryonics activity.' —icebrand ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

'The complexity class BQP, bounded-error quantum polynomial time, will be shown to lie in the polynomial hierarchy.' in 2011 —Lipton ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

by 2012 America will become an undeveloped nation, that there will be a revolution marked by food riots, squatter rebellions, tax revolts and job marches, and that holidays will be more about obtaining food, not gifts. —Gerald Celente ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

'A Clay problem will be solved by two independent researchers at about the same time.' in 2011 —Lipton ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

'Graph Isomorphism will be proved to be reducible to the Graph Reconstruction Problem.' in 2011 —Lipton ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

'At least one head pastor of a Protestant megachurch in the US will be found to be engaging in homosexual activity. For purposes of this prediction “megachurch” means a church with regular attendance of 3000 people at Sunday services.' —JoshuaZ ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

'Ryan Williams's recent bound on ACC circuits of NEXP will be tightened' —JoshuaZ ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

'Clashes between North Korea and South Korea will result in fatalities' —JoshuaZ ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.