PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

“There will be a major war, starting in the Middle East. Israel will lose (75%). China will probably join in on the radical-Muslim side. Iran will try to use its nukes but they will be duds. Israel will not use theirs…” —jdgalt ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-01-01.

I will have stopped wasting time on Omegle by 2:30. (It's 1:25 now.) ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-01-06; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.

The Bitcoin price will hit 7 $/฿ in January 2012 UTC. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Mqrius on 2012-01-05; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-06.

“NZ Government to announce before 2012 it will waive visitor visa requirement for China passport holders” -ipredict ( 0% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-06.

“Average Global Temperature for 2011 to be among five warmest years on record” —Intrade ( 70% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-15; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-05.

“Average Global Temperature for 2011 to be the warmest on record” —Intrade ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-15; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-05.

Bebo.com sold by Criterion Capital Partners in 2011. —Ben Parr ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-05.

MySpace is sold by Fox News Corp in 2011. —Ben Parr ( 20% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-05.

The US Mint has resumed printing $2 bills since I checked in 2005 (thus explaining the new-looking $2 I received as change at IFC). ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-05; known on 2012-01-05; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-05.

The IFC Center will detect me sneaking into the second movie & kick me out. ( 30% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-05; known on 2012-01-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-05.

Night 5: pill was vitamin D. ( 60% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-05; known on 2012-01-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-05.

I will continue wasting time on Omegle until 8 PM. (It's 5 PM now.) ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-05; known on 2012-01-05; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-05.

I will not open facebook between now and midnight. ( 100% confidence )

Created by ahartell on 2012-01-04; known on 2012-01-05; judged right by ahartell on 2012-01-05.

The Bitcoin price will hit 6 $/฿ in January 2012 UTC. ( 81% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Mqrius on 2012-01-01; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-05.

I will burn any kind of optical disc between 2012-01-01 00:00 UTC and 2013-01-01 00:00 UTC ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-04.

Night 4: pill was Vitamin D ( 60% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-04; known on 2012-01-04; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-04.

Ron Paul will win the Iowa Caucus. ( 39% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RobertLumley on 2011-12-20; known on 2012-01-03; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-01-04.

Kunikida (from Haruhi) is written country-tree-field. ( 20% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-04; known on 2012-01-04; judged right by faws on 2012-01-04.

Taniguchi (from Haruhi) is written valley-mouth. ( 90% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-04; known on 2012-01-04; judged right by faws on 2012-01-04.

'Hewlett-Packard will buy SAP' in 2011 —Chris O'Brien ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.

'Yahoo CEO Carol Bartz will go.' in 2011 —Chris O'Brien ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.

'Facebook will pass 1 billion users.' in 2011 —Chris O'Brien ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.

Asif Ali Zardari will cease to be president of Pakistan during 2011 ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-03.

Puella Magi Madoka Magica will win a Nihon Taisho SF award ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-21; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-03.

'Fox sells off Myspace for LESS than it bought it for' in 2011 —Brian Breslin ( 10% confidence; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-29; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-03.

Subversion will not be released by 2011. ( 70% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-24; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-03.

50-100 US municipal debt defaults by 2012. —Meredith Whitney ( 30% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-23; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-03.

Yoshiyuki Sadamoto's Evangelion manga will be finished sometime in 2011 ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-03-03; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-03.

“125 or more US banks to fail during 2011” —Intrade ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-01-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-03.

I have heard Life before. ( 20% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-03; known on 2012-01-03; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-03.

'Kimi ni aeta Yokatta' is from one of the Slayers series. ( 30% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-03; known on 2012-01-03; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-03.

'Sakura saku' is the first Love Hina OP. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-03; known on 2012-01-03; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-03.

Night 3: pill was Vitamin D ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-03; known on 2012-01-03; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-03.

Share will download one of the files I'm looking for tomorrow. ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-04; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-03.

gwern will make a prediction on PredictionBook any time during 2012 (UTC) ( 96% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-03.

Civil conflict will break out in the US by the end of 2011. ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by max on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.

'The first Youtube millionaire emerges' in 2011 —Brian Breslin ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-29; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.

'Twitter hits 200M users' in 2011 —Brian Breslin ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-29; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.

Wikileaks will release the AES key to their insurance file in 2011 ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.

“22 nanometer chips are in mass production” during 2011 ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.

No Facebook IPO in 2011 —Ben Parr ( 89% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.

'Bre Pettis will appear on the cover of Bloomberg Businessweek magazine in 2011.' —Joris Peels ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-02.

'Despite media hysterics as to its imminent demise the current coalition of parties in government in Australia will remain in power. (70%)' —luminosity ( 70% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-02.

Cannabis will be legalised within Australia by 2012 ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by d403 on 2010-02-28; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-02.

'A distributed naming system for Web/broadcast content will gain substantial mindshare and measurable US usage after the trifecta of attacks on Wikileaks DNS, COICA, and further attacks on privacy-preserving or anonymous registration in the ICANN-sponsore ( 15% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-02-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-02.

WTI Oil front month (96 US$ today) will go lower and reach 50 US$ by the end of 2012 ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by herb on 2011-11-21; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-31.

Night 2: pill was Vitamin D. ( 35% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-02.

I will make a prediction on PB in 2012. ( 87% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by muflax on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2012-01-02.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average* will finish 2011 below 12.000 points *high (close) in 2011 12.810 & low (close) in 2011 10.655 ( 55% confidence )

Created by herb on 2011-12-01; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by herb on 2012-01-02.

送る　is pronounced そうる ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-02.

Statistics

Judged Predictions