PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

I will have played Fate/stay night by the end of this year. ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-01.

PredictionBook's email notification system will be fixed by the end of this year. ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-02-29.

The Dow Jones will finish 2012 below 12000 pts ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by leejhancox on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.

The Bitcoin price will hit 5 $/฿ in December 2011. ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Mqrius on 2011-12-20; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Mqrius on 2012-01-01.

“Carry-on luggage on US airlines will be reduced to a single handbag that inspectors can search thoroughly, in 2010 or 2011.” —Phil Goetz ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.

“Construction of 'Ground Zero mosque' to commence before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 33% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-11; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.

Apple will announce a 128GB+ (non-HDD) iPod or closest iPod Touch successor, before 2012 ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-29; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.

Before 2012, the United States will lose its triple-A credit rating from Moody's or Fitch (or both) ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-23; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.

I will watch all 26 episodes of Gantz before 2012-01-01 UTC ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.

Duck Hunt revealed for 3DS —Game Informer ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-31.

Half-Life 3 announced by Valve in 2011. —Game Informer ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-31.

Diablo III port to consoles announced in 2011 —Game Informer ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-31.

Amazon opens Japanese Kindle store in 2011. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-31.

Owen will post an article about Direct Instruction on LW this year. ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-31.

Google will sell all hardware developing and producing parts of Motorola Mobile before 1. Jan 2012 ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2011-08-16; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

wedrifid will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-31.

'The unemployment rate in the United States will continue to be above 8%: 90%' —CronoDAS ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-31.

Intrade will close/merge/be sold by 2012. ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

Wikileaks will continue to exist as an organization through 2011. ( 89% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.

Syrian president Bashar al-Assad will lose control over his country in 2011. ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

Yahoo will spin off/sell Flickr in 2011. —Robert X. Cringely ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

katla volcano will not erupt in 2011 ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by scav on 2011-01-05; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.

CEO Steve Ballmer will not leave Microsoft's CEOship in 2011. —Robert X. Cringely ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.

'General AI will not be made in 2011.' —JoshuaZ ( 97% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.

The US Federal Reserve is not audited by the US government in 2011. —Kevin ( 84% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.

I will publish another article on my site this year. ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-31.

3D Televisions using a technology that doesn't require expensive glasses to view in 3D will outsell those that do require such glasses by the end of 2011 ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by scav on 2011-01-05; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-31.

“Magnitude 8.0 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )