PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

My RTC abstract will be accepted ( 66% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-11-07; known on 2012-02-15; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-25.

I will complete my paper to a standard acceptable to the conference review panel. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-01; known on 2012-02-08; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-25.

Zea will take an extended break from KS either before he finishes Shizune's route, or he will switch to some other heroine. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by meisnewbie on 2012-02-11; known on 2012-02-18; judged right by meisnewbie on 2012-03-03.

Zea will take an extended break from KS either before he finishes Shizune's route, or he will switch to some other heroine. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by meisnewbie on 2012-02-11; known on 2012-02-18; judged right by meisnewbie on 2012-03-03.

Stopping Bupropion won't reduce my happiness by more than 10%. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-02; known on 2012-02-16; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-24.

I will have achieved a heart rate of 165 for 15 minutes straight which is my aerobic fitness goal. ( 80% confidence )

Created by waveman on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-02-28; judged right by waveman on 2012-02-23.

I will have listened to Dorothy's memories tape and mailed her a letter with my comments and thoughts. ( 40% confidence )

Created by waveman on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-02-28; judged right by waveman on 2012-02-23.

Seth Roberts will link to http://www.gwern.net/Zeo#vitamin-d within the week. ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-14; known on 2012-02-21; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-23.

Mercenaries 4 will not have started in one month ( 95% confidence )

Created by meisnewbie on 2012-01-23; known on 2012-02-22; judged right by meisnewbie on 2012-02-22.

Rain at apt. tonight or tomorrow morning. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-20; known on 2012-02-21; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-21.

Nanoha is involved in with the Drexler group, either as a Dominion believer or in protecting certain members. ( 60% confidence )

Created by meisnewbie on 2012-02-09; known on 2012-02-28; judged right by meisnewbie on 2012-02-21.

In Nanoha's route, conditional upon the events not happening later in her route, the simulation featuring Nanoha is from Rain's route. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by meisnewbie on 2012-02-20; known on 2012-04-20; judged right by meisnewbie on 2012-02-21.

Temperature outside between 30 and 40 F inclusive ( 60% confidence )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-20; known on 2012-02-20; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-20.

Temperature outside below 30 ( 30% confidence )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-20; known on 2012-02-20; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-20.

Temperature outside above 40 ( 10% confidence )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-20; known on 2012-02-20; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-20.

Obama will not run for a second term. (http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=312393 ) ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-21; known on 2012-02-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-20.

I will have 1000 Anki cards in my compounds deck by the time I play two week's worth of Baldr Sky ( 80% confidence )

Created by meisnewbie on 2012-01-23; known on 2012-02-07; judged right by meisnewbie on 2012-02-20.

“Reduce term of copyrights to a maximum of 56 years” petition will reach 25k signatures by the deadline. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-26; known on 2012-02-20; judged wrong by ahartell on 2012-02-20.

I will be able to solve a rubix cube in less than 1 minute and 30 seconds by July ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by ahartell on 2012-01-04; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by ahartell on 2012-02-20.

Tchaikovsky was a known drug addict. ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Leo on 2012-02-20; known on 2012-02-20; judged wrong by Leo on 2012-02-20.

The Drexler group escaped from the lab because they believed the self destruct system would work and prevent a grey goo scenario. (Baldr Sky) ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by meisnewbie on 2012-02-18; known on 2012-03-03; judged wrong by meisnewbie on 2012-02-18.

GJP: #1060 Will Christian Wulff resign or vacate the office of President of Germany before 1 April 2012? ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-04-01; judged right by faws on 2012-02-18.

“I predict that I or my team will win (1st place) for the Quantified Health Prize. (70%)” —Kevin ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-02-18.

“I will place in the top 5 for the Quantified Health Prize” —Kevin ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2012-03-01; judged right by Grognor on 2012-02-18.

Singularity Institute's new website design will go live before February 16, 2012. ( 70% confidence )

Created by lukeprog on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-02-16; judged wrong by lukeprog on 2012-02-17.

GJP: #1077 Will Egypt officially announce by 15 February 2012 that it is lifting* its travel ban on Americans currently in Egypt? ( 45% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-31; known on 2012-02-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-17.

My armodafinil shipment will arrive within 4 weeks ( 75% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-06; known on 2012-03-03; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-17.

My armodafinil shipment will arrive within 3 weeks ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-06; known on 2012-02-25; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-17.

My armodafinil shipment will arrive within 2 weeks ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-06; known on 2012-02-18; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-17.

I will purchase Deus Ex 3 within 1 week and complete it (at least once) in less than 2 weeks after purchase. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-08; known on 2012-02-29; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-17.

My comment on Shiny Ogre's blog will be approved in 24 hours. ( 50% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-16; known on 2012-02-17; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-02-17.

France's Sarkozy to run for presidency. ( 96% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-01-24; known on 2012-02-15; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-02-15.

Iran's upcoming statement on its nuclear programme will not concern development of weapons ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by modulus on 2012-02-11; known on 2012-04-01; judged right by modulus on 2012-02-15.

There will be one sitting of Phantasmagoria of Flower View in the next month where I will go positive against Drakeryn. (Sitting = More than 5 matches where Merlin is not picked) ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by meisnewbie on 2012-01-23; known on 2012-02-22; judged right by meisnewbie on 2012-02-15.

Drakeryn gets shot by Chris or gets lynched next Touhou mafia day (numbers) ( 60% confidence )

Created by meisnewbie on 2012-02-11; known on 2012-02-14; judged wrong by meisnewbie on 2012-02-15.

GJP: #1079 Who will win the 2012 Venezuela presidential primary for a unified opposition candidate to Hugo Chavez? Henrique Capriles Radonski ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-07; known on 2012-02-14; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-14.

I will get a B in my LinAlg class. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Lemmih on 2011-12-22; known on 2012-02-20; judged wrong by Lemmih on 2012-02-14.

'Multiple Wikileaks alternatives will pop up, and pundits will start to realize that mass leaks are enabled by technology trends, not just by one freaky Australian dude.' —FtT ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-02-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-14.

Night 42: pill was Vitamin D ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-13; known on 2012-02-13; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-13.

“Congress will pass an electronic privacy bill along the lines of the principles set out by the Digital Due Process Coalition.” —FfT ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-02-13; known on 2012-02-13; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-13.

HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will update within the next three months. ( 61% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by ceterisparibus on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-02-12; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-13.

Vi tager på staden før vi går iseng ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OptiMind on 2012-02-04; known on 2012-02-04; judged right by OptiMind on 2012-02-13.

Night 41: pill was Vitamin D ( 25% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-12; known on 2012-02-12; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-12.

Pill was modafinil. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Lemmih on 2012-02-11; known on 2012-02-12; judged right by Lemmih on 2012-02-12.

Lopen has not done an hour of grammar today ( 70% confidence )

Created by meisnewbie on 2012-02-12; known on 2012-02-12; judged right by meisnewbie on 2012-02-12.

The DirectTV guy won't be able to install our satellite dish on our West facing balcony. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Primeval on 2012-02-10; known on 2012-02-11; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-11.

Pill was Bupropion ( 30% confidence )

Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-11; known on 2012-02-11; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-11.

My armodafinil shipment will arrive within 1 week ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-06; known on 2012-02-11; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-11.

Night 40: pill was Vitamin D ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-11; known on 2012-02-11; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-11.

Pill was Bupropion ( 40% confidence )

Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-10; known on 2012-02-10; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-10.

Statistics

Judged Predictions