Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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[Fighting] Wilson Reis to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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[Fighting] Joseph Benavidez to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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[Fighting] Alexandre Pantoja to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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[Fighting] Tim Elliott to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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Taiwan to declare independence in 2019 ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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Trump Republicans split from GOP to start a third party. ( 10% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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[IPO] Didi IPO in 2019 ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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[In 2019 at least one country in Europe (other than UK) to] hold a vote in parliament/legislature on leaving the eurozone ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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[Fighting: As of 2019 EOY] Marlon Moraes is UFC bantamweight champion ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-11; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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[Fighting] Sijara Eubanks to be a UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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[Fighting] Joanna Jedrzejczyk to be a UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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[Fighting] Derrick Lewis to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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[Fighting] No more UFC “numbered events” to be canceled or rescheduled in 2019 ( 93% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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Trump's wall will never be built. At most, very small portions might. Definitely no wall the length of the border, as was his main campaign promise. ( 87% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by SeriousPod on 2017-05-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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No Magic: The Gathering film will have been released in more than 1000 theaters by January 1st, 2020. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by aarongertler on 2015-09-24; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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“SpaceX successfully launches and returns crewed spacecraft” ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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Saudi Arabia and Iran will be at war before the end of 2020. ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-06-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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[Fighting] Jon Jones to test positive for prohibited substances again in 2019 ( 24% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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[Fighting] Jon Jones to test positive for prohibited substances again in 2019 ( 24% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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[Fighting] Khabib Nurmagomedov to fight Conor McGregor in 2019 ( 9% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-22; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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PLA to use force against protesters in Hong Kong before 2020-01-01 ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-11-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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2019: HIV is able to be thrown into remission in HIV+ individuals carrying the HIV-1 strain, only. Further research is needed for HIV-2. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jarlathhealy on 2012-09-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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[The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] More than 7,500 (more than 3x growth) ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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Labor force participation rate will hit below 62% this decade. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-02-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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Sam Altman: Uber, Palantir, Airbnb, Dropbox, Pinterest, and SpaceX to be collectively worth over $200b by Jan 1, 2020 ( 45% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2015-03-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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Politics, US – Mick Mulvaney ceases to be Chief of Staff before the 1st of January, 2020 ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-02-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-01-01.
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Before 1 January 2020, any EU member state besides the UK sets a date for a referendum on leaving the EU or the eurozone. ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-02-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-01-01.
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Politics – Bashar al-Assad ceases to be president of Syria before 1 January 2020. ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-02-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-01-01.
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Arbital will merge content with LessWrong (proper or wiki) by 2020-01-01 ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2020-01-01.
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NGE: There will not be a live-action Evangelion movie before 2020 ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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In 2019, in the USA, it will be possible to have more than 99% of our genome sequenced for less than the median salary per household per day (averaged from the year 2019) divided by the average number of people per household. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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I will get to 67kg by EOY 2019 ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2019-03-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2020-01-01.
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No Brexit by EOY 2019 ( 37% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by waveman on 2019-03-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by waveman on 2020-01-01.
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I will have at least one more math paper published before the end of 2019. ( 69% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-12-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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Iraq splits into 3, (either 3 distinct states or a single federal government of 3 autonomous regions), before 2020 ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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PredictionBook exists on 01-01-2020 OR you will have some other way to access this prediction or other predictions made thus far. ( 100% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by asdf on 2014-05-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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SLS core to be finished by end of 2019. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2019-04-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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Construction of Hyperloop will be approved by 2020 ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Esuba on 2014-01-24; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Nick Szabo is the real Satoshi Nakamoto ( 19% confidence; 30 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-12-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Apple will sell smart glasses before 2020. ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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A live-action Metal Gear movie will be released before 2020 and Kiefer Sutherland will play Snake or Big Boss. ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-06-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Tesla goes bankrupt sometime before 01/01/2020. ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by FestiveBleak on 2018-07-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Trump is being drugged by the deep state/some 3-letter-agency, and this becomes verifiable ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-15; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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'Chinese GDP on a PPP basis will be roughly comparable to that of the US and the EU (i.e. within 25%)' in 2020 —Shane Legg ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Most learning is accomplished through intelligent, adaptive courseware presented by computer-simulated teachers. In the learning process, human adults fill the counselor and mentor roles instead of being academic instructors. —Ray Kurzweil ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Twitter will continue to exist without having been acquired through 2020-01-01. ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by bitbatbot on 2016-04-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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the Large Aral Sea gone in 2019 ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Bitcoin was created by a lone programmer who wanted to hide his identity ( 45% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-05-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Can be (legally) driven on standard roads between a majority of arbitrary street addresses in at least one major city or region (in any country) by a fully autonomous vehicle by 2020 Jan 1. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by brandyn on 2015-01-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by brandyn on 2020-01-01.
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Fusion used (not just demonstrated) as a general power source (>1 Watt) anywhere in the world before 2020 Jan 1. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by brandyn on 2015-01-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by brandyn on 2020-01-01.