Upcoming Predictions
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If all EA community building Slack Workspaces are replaced with Mattermost instances, user participation in those spaces will drop by more than 5% ( 60% confidence )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2031-01-01.
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Acemoglu wins a Nobel Prize by 2030 ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06; known on 2031-01-01.
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A “New Keynesian” economist wins a Nobel Prize by 2030, e.g. Summers, Mankiw, Yellen, Woodford, etc. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06; known on 2031-01-01.
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[The next interstellar object will be discovered] before 2031 ( 95% confidence )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2031-01-01.
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The European Union will start raising Union-level taxes (similar to US' federal taxation) by 2030 ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-19; known on 2031-01-01.
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Global warming: warming of 2 C in under 15 years. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2016-12-04; known on 2031-01-01.
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[The next interstellar object will be discovered] before 2024 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2031-01-01.
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At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030 ( 28% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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At least 10% of 18-year olds in the US will be unschooled by 2030 ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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[The next interstellar object will be discovered] before 2023 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2031-01-01.
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[The next interstellar object will be discovered] before 2022 ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2031-01-01.
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The three “Deep South” states — Paraná, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul – to secede from Brazil sometime before 2030 ( 24% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2031-01-01.
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Mass casaulties (>3000) from bioterrorism by 2030 ( 51% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-30; known on 2031-01-01.
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There will be a magnitude 7+ earthquake in SF bay area between 2020 and 2030 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.
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Chen Ning Yang will die before Tsung Dao Lee ( 55% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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Minnesota to break the longest Democrat-voting streak by 2030 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-03; known on 2031-01-01.
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By 2030 consensus will be that low Earth orbit is undergoing Kessler syndrome. ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known on 2031-01-01.
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The Riemann Hypothesis will be proven before 2031 ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-20; known on 2031-01-01.
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United States institutes price controls on physicians before 2030 ( 30% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-06-14; known on 2031-01-01.
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By January 1, 2031, known that there is no odd perfect number less than 10^2500 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-06-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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LSD to no longer be a Schedule I drug by 2030 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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Solar Energy to reach 25% of total world energy generation by 2030 ( 27% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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Kakapo will go extinct by 2030 ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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Kea (Nestor Notabilis) to go extinct in the wild by 2030 ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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Bonobos to go extinct in the wild by 2030 ( 30% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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Gorillas will go extinct in the wild by 2030 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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Alzheimer's to be a curable illness by 2030 ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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A human has set foot on Mars ( 9% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-08-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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Bisphenol A to be classified as a IARC Group 2A/2B carcinogen by 2030 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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Will Issa Rice become a wizard? ( 60% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2031-01-01.
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There will be more Scarlet Macaws in 2030 than 2010 ( 20% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.
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Harvard to make tuition free for all undergraduates (at least once) by 2030 ( 25% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.
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Miami population to be higher in 2030 than 2010 ( 30% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.
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Seattle population to be higher in 2030 than 2010 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.
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US obesity rate above 31.6% in 2030 ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-26; known on 2031-01-01.
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Climate change catastrophes cause more property damage over than 2020-2030 period than the purported $300bn USD (as reported by Time via Bloomberg, october 24, 2019) that would need to be invested to limit the worst of the effects. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kallman on 2020-01-02; known on 2031-01-01.
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US will ally with Iran by 2030 – Alex Lightman ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-29; known on 2031-01-01.
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Cascadia megathrust earthquake (of magnitude 8+) to hit Seattle before 2030 ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2031-01-01.
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Cuba to become the fastest growing world economy during the 2020s – Alex Lightman ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-29; known on 2031-01-01; judged unknown by InquilineKea on 2015-08-03.
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“by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system” ( 5% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-26; known on 2031-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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There will be a Second US civil war before 2031 ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2031-01-02.
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4% of my 2031 savings (including rental property value) will be greater than my 2031 expenses ( 65% confidence )
Created by trishume on 2016-04-07; known on 2031-01-16.
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At 30, I will have never been married. ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ejh3141 on 2020-02-20; known on 2031-02-04.
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I will be awesome in 20 years. ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by zwsaz1 on 2011-03-22; known on 2031-03-22.
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Either mean, median or mode truck drivers in either globally or US will make <= .027 BTC/hr or equivalent ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-26; known on 2031-04-26.
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Will there be at least another 3 episodes of the Hello Internet podcast? The Podcast had a rather irregular schedule, but there hasn't been another episode since the 28th February 2020. ( 42% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Morpheus on 2021-05-14; known on 2031-05-15.
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Created by krazemon on 2021-06-27; known on 2031-06-27.
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Created by krazemon on 2021-06-27; known on 2031-06-27.
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Created by krazemon on 2021-06-27; known on 2031-06-27.
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The appearance of complex numbers in quantum mechanics has something to do with information propagating backwards through time regarding constraints on which possible world(s) may obtain. This is related to getting bits of Chaitin's omega by observing app ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-24; known on 2031-09-24.