Upcoming Predictions
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Created by krazemon on 2021-06-27; known on 2031-06-27.
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Created by krazemon on 2021-06-27; known on 2031-06-27.
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Created by krazemon on 2021-06-27; known on 2031-06-27.
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The appearance of complex numbers in quantum mechanics has something to do with information propagating backwards through time regarding constraints on which possible world(s) may obtain. This is related to getting bits of Chaitin's omega by observing app ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-24; known on 2031-09-24.
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S identifies as vegetarian by 15 ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by penten on 2016-10-31; known on 2031-10-31.
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The cure for cancer will be released to the world. ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by amandopando805 on 2021-11-06; known on 2031-11-06.
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I will successfully commit suicide in the next 10 years ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tuxedage on 2021-11-02; known on 2031-11-16.
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Caffeine will not be the primary stimulant (measured by daily users) ( 19% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2016-12-13; known on 2031-12-13.
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In 20 years, mainland China's TI Corruption Perceptions Index will be lower (better) than the USA. ( 22% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2031-12-28.
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All freshwater fisheries fed on processed jellyfish by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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Chocolate a rare luxury by 2032. ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-25; known on 2032-01-01.
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Average global age higher in 2032 than 2012 —Charles Stross ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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“Cars will probably mostly be plug-in hybrids” in 2032 —Charles Stross ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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Automated driving infrastructure in First World; majority of new cars large/completely automated. —Charles Stross ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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Cultured mammalian meat commercially available by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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“oil will still be available and planes will still be burning it.” —Charles Stross ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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Over the next 20 years loop quantum gravity will dominate the efforts to reconcile Relativity with Quantum Mechanics. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-29; known on 2032-01-01.
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Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032 ( 70% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-25; known on 2032-01-01.
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By 2032, it will be generally accepted among neuroscientists that the brain substantially relies on non-quantum substrate-dependent computations. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sty.silver on 2022-02-26; known on 2032-01-01.
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“the trend towards urbanization continues” 2012-2032 —Charles Stross ( 85% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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Pilot net-energy fusion plant online by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 49% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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“HIV will be curable — either through better anti retroviral drugs or through gene therapy” by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 45% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032 ( 52% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-27; known on 2032-01-01.
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Total Chinese rice production to be less in 2032 than in 2012 ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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In 2032, solar power will be at least 150% of the second highest energy source of us consumption (in kwh). ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2012-07-28; known on 2032-01-01.
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“gigabit wireless connection speeds will be the norm outside the home or office” by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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Charles Stross will survive to 2032 ( 71% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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Genetically-modified-crop-caused famine by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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“Moore's Law will have played out by 2032” —Charles Stross ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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Climate change denial completely discredited – “about as respectable as Lysenkoism is today” —Charles Stross ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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“Newspapers as we know them today will either not exist, or no longer print ink on paper” by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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“Half of Facebook, Google, Apple, Microsoft, Hewlett-Packard, Nokia, Sony and IBM will no longer exist” —Charles Stross ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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By 2030, small nuclear power plants (around 60MW) were “popping up” around the USA. ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03; known on 2032-01-01.
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US bicycle mode share will be over 1% in the 2030 Census ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-07-19; known on 2032-01-01.
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Commercially sold driverless/self-driving cars in at least one OECD country by January 1 2032. ( 92% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-28; known on 2032-01-01.
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Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ( 54% confidence; 20 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2012-02-18; known on 2032-02-17.
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Rothfuss's The Doors of Stone (bk3) will end with the recounting of Kvothe's life up to opening the inn, with no further adventures. ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-05; known on 2032-02-18.
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I will be using Bash in 20 years ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2032-06-28.
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I will be using Firefox in 20 years ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2032-06-28.
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I will be using Emacs in 20 years ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2032-06-28.
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I will be using Linux in 20 years ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2032-06-28.
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A predictive intelligence will emerge in the year 2032 to accuse me of engaging in prediction-based warfare. ( 3% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by SmoothPorcupine on 2015-10-18; known on 2032-07-16.
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A predictive intelligence will emerge in the year 2031 to publicly accuse me of engaging in prediction-based warfare. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by SmoothPorcupine on 2015-10-18; known on 2032-07-16.
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Within 20 years the old river control structure will be intentionally disbanded by the US government or its successor and not replaced in any way, allowing the Mississippi to change course. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by beo_shaffer on 2012-08-29; known on 2032-08-29.
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Within 20 years the old river control structure will be destroyed, or fail* for reasons other than intentional decommissioning by the us government or its replacement. *The structure will be considered failed if for a month an average of 50% or greater la ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by beo_shaffer on 2012-08-29; known on 2032-08-29.
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At least one of Sasha and Malia Obama will say they have or had an eating disorder. ( 29% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2012-09-04; known on 2032-09-04.
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No Honduras R.E.D. will have >$100M GDP within 20 years. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-24; known on 2032-09-24.
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Aaron Simmons will be elected President of the United States of America. ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Messias on 2013-08-01; known on 2032-11-02.
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Kanye West elected President by 2032 — Scott Adams ( 0% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2015-09-23; known on 2032-11-10.
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The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be <50 years old at his inauguration. ( 22% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-01-11; known on 2032-11-10.