Clathrate gun fires ( rapid ( 1 C / year or more ) increase in global mean temp for 5 years attributed to clathrate methane deposit release) ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-13; known on 2040-01-01.

Final Gerald F. Ford-class carrier launched by 2040. ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2040-01-01.

EU to dissolve by 2040. ( 39% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-25; known on 2040-01-01.

GRRM dies before finishing A Song of Ice and Fire ( 49% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2040-01-01.

“By 2040, at least 40% of Americans making to age 65 will live to age 100.” ( 43% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2040-01-01.

“By 2040 the existence of Qi will be accepted by the mainstream scientists, and Qi research will revolutionize our mechanical scientific TOE into a true TOE.” ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2040-01-01.

“Automated freight transport” widespread by 2030s ( 84% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-19; known on 2040-01-01.

“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.” ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2040-01-01.

Internal communications of an EA organisation be part of a data leak by 2040 ( 80% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2040-01-01.

By 2040, no other country will have both more active nuclear warheads and higher GDP than the United States. ( 64% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-10-02; known on 2040-01-01.

The petrodollar will be dismantled by 2040. ( 51% confidence )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-01-19; known on 2040-01-01.

Yoshua Bengio to eventually cash out into private industry (at least once) ( 40% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2040-01-01.

Bioviva's Liz Parrish to have demonstrated convincing evidence of age reversal with gene therapy ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2040-01-01.

World governments will ban chemical/Biological/Nuclear weapons after The Third World War (WW III) and make it a penalty of death to all who develop such weapons … anywhere … on Earth. ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2040-01-16.

Nuclear war in 25 years. ( 10% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by argothiel on 2015-03-04; known on 2040-03-16.

People will use Wine (the windows non-emulator) on Windows to play older games within 20 years ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by qznc on 2020-04-20; known on 2040-04-20.

Chinese economy will be larger than the US in the future. After that, India is the next best candidate that could surpass US economy in the next 25 years. After that China and India could be competing for number one — Masoyoshi Son, Softbank ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-17; known on 2040-06-24.

Lindsay Lohan will die before 50 ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jande417 on 2010-08-19; known on 2040-08-19.

Cognitive Implants will be available for consumer use by 2040. ( 62% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2040-11-17.

Terrorism in the Middle East Will Decline By Half By 2040. ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-08-08; known on 2040-12-16.

Worldwide capacity of rooftop, building-integrated and local PV soar from 104GW in 2014 to nearly 1.8TW in 2040, a 17-fold increase. ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-06; known on 2040-12-25.

European Union long term growth rate will average 1.4% real gdp annually. ( 100% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-19; known on 2040-12-25.

56% share of world generation for zero carbon energy sources(renewables+nuclear) by 2040. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-06; known on 2040-12-25.

If a second civil war starts/continues in the USA, and Republicans and Democrats are opposing belligerents, out of possibly more belligerents, Australia will fight on the side of Republicans. ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by najdorf on 2020-09-10; known on 2040-12-31.

They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040 ( 55% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-05; known on 2040-12-31.

China will win more gold medals than India in 2040 ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-15; known on 2040-12-31.

Fareed Zakaria: US will be #1 in gold medals in 2040 ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-15; known on 2040-12-31.

Fareed Zakaria: Indonesia will win more gold medals than Brazil in 2040 ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-15; known on 2040-12-31.

Universal literacy worldwide by 2040 for 15-24 year olds. ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-09; known on 2040-12-31.

Canadian government will pass an “Anti-Cyberbullying law”, and this will be used to enforce copyrights ( 58% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-10; known on 2041-01-01.

Attention Deficit Disorder more prevalent in hacker community(based on multiple, broad criteria) than baseline at a statistically significant level (at least in 2010s) ( 63% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-01; known on 2041-01-01.

A professional athlete will not voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041. ( 38% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-11; known on 2041-01-01.

Commercial fusion reactors by end of 2040. ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-22; known on 2041-01-01.

Human-level AI by 2040 (Richard Sutton: Eyes On The Prize talk, 2022) ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by YuxiLiu on 2022-10-26; known on 2041-01-01.

'2040 The “Universal Replicator,” based on nanotechnology, is perfected: any object, however complex, can be created – given the necessary raw materials. Diamonds or gourmet meals can, literally, be made from dirt.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2041-01-01.

[Humans will understand human-level intelligence… (Richard Sutton: The Future of Artificial Intelligence Belongs to Search and Learning)] after 2040 ( 15% confidence )

Created by YuxiLiu on 2022-10-26; known on 2041-01-01.

[Humans will understand human-level intelligence… (Richard Sutton: The Future of Artificial Intelligence Belongs to Search and Learning)] by 2030 ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by YuxiLiu on 2022-10-26; known on 2041-01-01.

[Humans will understand human-level intelligence… (Richard Sutton: The Future of Artificial Intelligence Belongs to Search and Learning)] by 2040 ( 50% confidence )

Created by YuxiLiu on 2022-10-26; known on 2041-01-01.

[Humans will understand human-level intelligence… (Richard Sutton: The Future of Artificial Intelligence Belongs to Search and Learning)] never ( 10% confidence )

Created by YuxiLiu on 2022-10-26; known on 2041-01-01.

Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 68% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.

Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 33% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.

Alcor will perform >=1 cryopreservations in 2040. ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2041-01-01.

The majority of Alcor cryopreservations as of 2011 will have maintained preservation continuity as of 2041. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2041-01-01.

Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 65% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.

Alcor's Patient Trust Fund will be solvent in 2041. ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2041-01-01.

By 2040, top athletes in their 50s will match the performance of athletes decades younger using advanced medicine (Daniel Lemire). ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-04; known on 2041-01-01.

HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire) ( 56% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-04; known on 2041-01-01.

Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen. ( 47% confidence; 23 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-03; known on 2041-01-01.

We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040 ( 52% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-04; known on 2041-01-01.