The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship. ( 46% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.

The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Brazilian citizenship. ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.

The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Iranian citizenship. ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.

The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Chinese citizenship. ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.

The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Indian citizenship. ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.

The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Pakistani citizenship. ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.

The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Russian citizenship. ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.

Relationship between P and BPP resolved by 2045 ( 69% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-16; known on 2045-01-01.

The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding German citizenship. ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.

The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding French citizenship. ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.

George Church to win the Nobel Prize (in any category) ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2045-01-01.

By 2045 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ( 38% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2045-01-01.

The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding UK citizenship. ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.

u(1/2)<=.15 by 2045. Here mean u(1/2) in the Lindelof hypothesis. ( 95% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-19; known on 2045-01-01.

At least one WWII veteran will live to see Artificial General Intelligence ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2045-01-01.

By January 1, 2045, each of the cities of Flagstaff, Las Vegas, Albuquerque, Clovis, Prescott, Henderson, Hobbs, and Abilene will have a population of at most 10% its population compared to the population in 2015. ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-06; known on 2045-01-03.

A polynomial time factoring algorthim (on a classical computer) will be discovered by 2045. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-04; known on 2045-01-16.

Finite group isomorphism problem found to be in P by 2045. ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-04; known on 2045-01-16.

The ever increasing difficulty of pushing the economies of the world forward will force the nations of the world to band together into supranational entities. Not like the E.U. but more like a federation of nations banding together like the U.S.A. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by FarOutFuture1988 on 2015-05-21; known on 2045-02-01.

Superintelligence will be created within 30 years from 7th May 2015 ( 30% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by AlexLundborg on 2015-05-07; known on 2045-05-08.

As of 2015-08-19, Eliezer Yudkowsky has solved the hard problem of consciousness. ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2015-08-20; known on 2045-08-20.

Humans on Mars by August 30, 2045 ( 50% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-08-30; known on 2045-08-30.

Within 30 years, the University of Maine will have a PhD program in mathematics (this does not count interdisciplinary with math). ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-04; known on 2045-10-04.

Toyota said by 2050, gas-electric hybrids, plug-in hybrids, fuel-cell cars and electric vehicles will account for most of its global vehicle sales. That means gasoline- and diesel-engine powered cars(85%) will be near zero. ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-17; known on 2045-10-18.

Jimmy Wales and/or the WMF and/or any of its employees will be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize within 34 years. ( 24% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2045-12-04.

Yoshimoto Banana will win a Nobel Prize for Literature. ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-07; known on 2046-01-01.

'2045 The totally self-contained mobile home (envisaged almost a century ago by Buckminster Fuller) is perfected. Any additional carbon needed from food synthesis is obtained by extracting carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2046-01-01.

The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045 ( 56% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2046-01-01.

" I’m reasonably certain that [>1b pub library circulation] will also be true 35 years from now" ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-12; known on 2046-09-01.

51%+ of remaining humanity are muslims ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-03; known on 2046-09-03.

github still exists ( 7% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-30; known on 2046-10-31.

jason scott still alive, running a javascript emulator ( 25% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-30; known on 2046-10-31.

Humans to land on Mars by November 24, 2046 ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-10-24; known on 2046-11-24.

By 2046 0% children under 5 will be underweight globally. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-21; known on 2046-12-25.

Luminiferous Aether Theory turned out to be correct after all, big screw up/coverup dating to Michelson–Morley ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-13; known on 2047-01-01.

Earth's magnetic poles reverse by 2047. ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-04-13; known on 2047-01-01.

Milo Yiannopoulos still politically active/relevant in 30 years ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-20; known on 2047-08-17.

Finished the water ( 20% confidence )

Created by jhairguz.t@gmail.com on 2018-09-23; known on 2048-09-23.

Bharat's HDI will be > 0.856 by 2048. ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-15; known on 2048-12-25.

Half-Life 3 will be released in the next 30 years. ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-03; known on 2048-12-31.

'more than half of Baby Boomers will live healthy lives beyond 100' —Ron Klatz ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-14; known on 2049-01-01.

At least 10k people are living on Mars by the end of 2049. ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Mathieu_Putz on 2020-06-06; known on 2049-12-31.

“Human population of the world will peak at or below 8 billion in the 2040s and then drop dramatically.” ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2049-12-31.

Humanity will experience an outside context problem before 2050 ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by TheScholar on 2010-09-18; known on 2050-01-01.

Light speed will still be the same In 2050. In detail: assuming Quantum Field Theory still holds, the model of a free photon will still be massless and therefore its speed will be unavoidably fixed to the speed limit for Lorentz Transformations. ( 82% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Expipiplusone on 2016-11-17; known on 2050-01-01.

By 2050 most computer hardware will no longer be binary. ( 18% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by TheScholar on 2010-10-31; known on 2050-01-01.

X-Risk, Nuclear – Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, conditioonal on there being an offensive detonation anywhere? ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-07-11; known on 2050-01-01.

Personal – I try to develop a “potential breakthrough” as my choiceworthiness model of today puts it before 2050. ( 20% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-17; known on 2050-01-01.

By the year 2050, Nuclear weapons would have been abolished globally for the benefit of mankind. ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15; known on 2050-01-01.

2050: Less than 5% of the global population lives in autonomous units with populations between 10 million and 1 billion. ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-02; known on 2050-01-01.