By 2040, people will be able to eat as much as they'd like without getting fat ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-04; known on 2041-01-01.

P!=NP, and proven by 2040 —Ken ( 44% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2041-01-01.

The Arab-Israeli conflict is not over by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 72% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.

By 2040 the US remains the world's strongest economic power, as measured by GDP. — Axel Boldt ( 33% confidence; 9 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.

Twitter to finally allow ppl to autoorganize tweets into folders by 2040 ( 40% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-15; known on 2041-01-01.

Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 9% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.

'Global average temperatures have risen by 2°C' ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-07; known on 2041-01-01.

Linux most widely used operating system for personal desktop and laptop computers in the world by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.

A “theory of everything” combining quantum mechanics and general relativity found by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.

Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 31% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.

Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 69% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.

Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 32% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.

Bicycling mortality rate in US will be above 0.09 in 2040 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-24; known on 2041-01-01.

Effective herpes vaccine developed by 2040 ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by btrettel on 2015-10-12; known on 2041-01-01.

Most human conception occurs via IVF/Embryo Selection ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-08; known on 2041-01-01.

Working system wherein VR/AR is actually presented to the user from within the nervous system ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-03; known on 2041-07-01.

No euthanasia coaster will be built in the next 30 years. (See http://news.discovery.com/tech/euthanasia-sucicide-rollercoaster-ride-110919.html ) ( 87% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-21; known on 2041-09-21.

USA economy's long-run rate of growth of per-capita real GDP over the next 25 years will be 0.9% due to demography, education, inequality, and the federal debt —Robert J Gordon Stanley G. Harris Professor,Social Sciences Northwestern University. ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 19 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-19; known on 2041-12-25.

By January 1, 2042, proven that at least 9/10ths of the non-trivial zeros of the Riemann zeta function lie on the real line (proportionally). ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-27; known on 2042-01-01.

Someone without foot and with artificial legs will do under 10 seconds at the 100 meters sprint before 2041. ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-09; known on 2042-01-01.

NTRU found to be fundamentally vulnerable to quantum computer based attacks by January 1, 2042. ( 65% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-12; known on 2042-01-01.

By 2042, solar energy will cost half or less of what fossil-fuel based alternatives do. ( 53% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-15; known on 2042-01-01.

Of the total-coloring conjecture, list coloring conjecture, the EFL conjecture, and the Hardwiger conjecture, by Jan 1, 2042, either a triplet of them shown to imply the other, or one of them shown to be undecidable. ( 52% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-15; known on 2042-01-01.

social movement with explicit reference to kyriarchy as a tenet commits mass murder (>10,000 people) ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-18; known on 2042-01-01.

Level 5 autonomous cars will be commercially available by 2042. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Mati on 2020-02-29; known on 2042-01-01.

Fully artificial kidney will be publicly available by 2042. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Mati on 2020-02-29; known on 2042-01-01.

At least one commercial fusion reactor adding power to the grid by 2041. ( 49% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-26; known on 2042-01-01.

Food will be commercially synthesized from chemical stocks like coal or atmospheric nitrogen. —J.B.S. Haldane ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-18; known on 2043-01-01.

The weekly newspaper The Economist will be in continuous publication until at least 2043. ( 46% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2043-01-01.

In 20 years, Eve and I will agree that the Long Wharf area of New Haven looks substantially aesthetically nicer than it does right now. ( 61% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-03-17; known on 2043-03-16.

Human extinction caused by AI before my 50th birthday. ( 19% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-02-28; known on 2043-10-10.

The fusion energy gain factor of a fusion reactor will reach a Q >= 1 before January 1st 2044, conditional on no existential catastrophes or wins. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2044-01-01.

More people will get born in Russia in year 2040 than in Russia in year 2037 ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by kuudes on 2021-10-27; known on 2045-01-01.

By 2045 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2045-01-01.

The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding citizenship from a country not already listed, and/or all other catchall outcomes. ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 17 comments )

Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.

The first full body transplantation of a human will have been successfully done before 2045. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Mati on 2015-02-26; known on 2045-01-01.

By 2045, electric powered passenger jets will exist. ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-20; known on 2045-01-01.

Before January 1 2045, no normal material substance (that is composed of atoms made from neutrons and protons with electrons) will be discovered that blocks more neutrinos than a factor of 10 over what a pure density argument would suggest. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-25; known on 2045-01-01.

By 2045, ZPP contained in P^(A,B) proven, where A is a ring isomorphism oracle, and B is an MSCP oracle. ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-26; known on 2045-01-01.

There is no odd perfect number N such that N is not divisible by a 6th power of a prime- proven by January 1, 2045. ( 65% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-19; known on 2045-01-01.

At least one Apollo astronaut to live to see Artificial General Intelligence ( 5% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2045-01-01.

By 2045, at least one of the following will occur: group isomorphism in P^factoring/poly, integer factoring in P^GI/poly, group isomorpism in BQP. ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-25; known on 2045-01-01.

P=ZPP proven by 2045 ( 82% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-06-07; known on 2045-01-01.

Within a generation, the “Aquatic Ape Theory” will become a significant minority opinion within anthropology. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-27; known on 2045-01-01.

A258107 to be proven to be finite by January 1, 2045. ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-10; known on 2045-01-01.

By January 1, 2045, a superconductor with a critical temperature of at least 240 K will be discovered. ( 65% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-21; known on 2045-01-01.

By 2046 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125 ( 62% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-16; known on 2045-01-01.

There will be a continual presence on Mars of at least one person or probe either on the surface or in orbit until at least 2045 ( 50% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-31; known on 2045-01-01.

The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045. ( 25% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-11-24; known on 2045-01-01.