Second Falklands War before 2035 ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-07; known on 2035-01-01.

Ralph Nader will hit age 100 ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2035-01-01.

Coal burning will amount for less than 5% of the energy consumed in Germany by the year 2035 ( 25% confidence )

Created by omni on 2021-07-23; known on 2035-01-01.

Professional sports still banning many performance-enhancing drugs. —Mike Lee ( 80% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2035-01-01.

Live commercial sports broadcasts in holograms by 2035. —Mike Lee ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2035-01-01.

'In 25 years, I bet there'll be many products we'll be allowed to buy but not see advertised – the things the government will decide we shouldn't be consuming because of their impact on healthcare costs or the environment but that they can't muster the po ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2035-01-01.

AIDS vaccine by 2035 —Tachi Yamada ( 57% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2035-01-01.

Magic to return on a large scale (like in Shadowrun) by January 1, 2035. ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-12; known on 2035-01-01.

“By the year 2035 non-invasive devices will allow us to interface with the internet (including accessing information in a similar sense to recalling memories) using electro-stimulus from neuron signals.” ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2035-01-01.

>50% of all electrical power worldwide will be a result of nuclear energy by 2035 ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by jesselevine on 2015-05-04; known on 2035-01-01.

At least 45% of electric power worldwide will be due to solar power by 2035. ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-03; known on 2035-01-01.

Facebook will be the most popular social network (by montly unique visitors) at the end of 2034. ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Mati on 2014-04-28; known on 2035-01-01.

Google+ will be the most popular social network (by montly unique visitors) at the end of 2034. ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Mati on 2014-04-28; known on 2035-01-01.

LinkedIn will be the most popular social network (by montly unique visitors) at the end of 2034. ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Mati on 2014-04-28; known on 2035-01-01.

By January 1, 2035 superconductor with critical temperature at least 200 K at 1 atmosphere of pressure will be discovered. ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-27; known on 2035-01-01.

“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.” ( 35% confidence; 23 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2035-01-01.

The solar cell efficiency record will be at 60% by January 1st, 2035. ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-12-06; known on 2035-01-01.

At least one substantial improvement on the finite group isomorphism problem will occur before 2035. ( 95% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-19; known on 2035-01-01.

A general factoring algorithm better than the number field sieve by 2035 ( 65% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-19; known on 2035-01-01.

Mathematician Shinichi Mochizuki's proof on the ABC Conjecture will be verified to be valid by 2035. ( 22% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Tuxedage on 2013-05-11; known on 2035-01-01.

Greater than 25% of US utility companies that exist as of 2015 will file for bankruptcy by 2035 ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-16; known on 2035-01-01.

“there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years.” – Scott Adams ( 20% confidence; 11 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by rebellionkid on 2015-01-13; known on 2035-01-13.

At least one Apollo astronaut will see man land on Mars ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2035-01-16.

By March 10, 2035, "the sum of (a) those who own cars and use them at least once a week (b) those who use a ride-sharing program with self-driving cars at least once a week, not counting twice those who do both will be less than 40% of the U.S. populatio ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-10; known on 2035-03-10.

By March 22, 2035, at least one currently OECD country will have at least 20% of all cars be self-driving. ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-22; known on 2035-03-22.

Schizophrenia will popularly be considered a part of the Autism spectrum, supporting imprinted brain theory. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-09; known on 2035-04-09.

Among the top 10% highest-earning jobs (incl. self-employment) in the US, >=75% of the total hours worked will be worked from home. ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by sh on 2015-06-25; known on 2035-06-01.

Pedophilia will be legalized in 20 years or in DSM6, whichever comes LATER. Legalized in particular means: age-of-consent abolished completely in any single country of so-called First World (or whatever is analogous to that in 20 years); ownership and dis ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jkadlubo on 2015-07-04; known on 2035-07-03.

Humans will be sent to Mars ( 59% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by espore on 2015-08-02; known on 2035-10-16.

According to a study by researchers at Oxford University, it's 90% likely that my current job as an HR administrative worker will be automated in 20 years. ( 90% confidence )

Created by Lissy on 2015-11-06; known on 2035-11-06.

Seb Henbest, Bloomberg New Energy Finance: “The CO² content of the atmosphere is on course to exceed 450 parts per million by 2035". The world will fail to keep temperature rise below 2 °C. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-06; known on 2035-12-25.

IEA: By 2035, Iraq's output rate will rise to more than 8 million barrels [per day], overtaking Russia to become the world’s second-largest exporter. ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-12; known on 2035-12-31.

Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035. ( 19% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by lavalamp on 2013-06-27; known on 2035-12-31.

Demonstration of energy-positive fusion power plant by the end of 2035. ( 31% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2018-05-10; known on 2035-12-31.

“By year 2036, there will be at least 1 man alive in the U.S. who has fathered 150 children.” ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2036-01-01.

We will reach “longevity escape velocity” by 2035 ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2036-01-01.

At least one of the Apollo astronauts will become a centenarian ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2036-01-01.

The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035 ( 51% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2036-01-01.

Among all US high-tech (IT, all computer {soft, hard}ware development) jobs, of the total hours worked in 2035, >=75% will be worked from home. ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by sh on 2015-06-25; known on 2036-01-01.

“That the average level of innovation between 2025 and 2035 exceeds the average level of innovation of the past 5 years (2002-2007.) I suggest using metrics as determined and published by the US Dept of Commerce, Economics & Statistics Administration as d ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2036-01-01.

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/ will be resolved as ambiguous or cancelled before resolution ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by sortega on 2021-09-07; known on 2036-01-01.

The average age of the United States senate will be 48 years old by 2035 ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jprettner on 2017-05-18; known on 2036-01-01.

easy autotranscriptions of mp3's into text files will become commonplace by 2035 ( 35% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-15; known on 2036-01-01.

By 2036 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125 ( 35% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-16; known on 2036-01-01.

Level 4 autonomous cars will be commercially available by 2036. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Mati on 2020-02-29; known on 2036-01-01.

'We will eradicate malaria, I believe, to the point where there are no human cases reported globally in 2035' —Tachi Yamada ( 39% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2036-01-01.

1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035 ( 41% confidence; 13 wagers; 15 comments )

Created by amcknight on 2011-11-11; known on 2036-01-01.

By January 1, 2036, shown that at least the first 10^15 non-trivial zeros of the Riemann Zeta function obey the Riemann hypothesis (that is lie on the s= 1/2 line) ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-27; known on 2036-01-01.

In the United States, manual labor will make up a larger percentage of the total workforce in 2035 than it does in 2015. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-14; known on 2036-01-01.