PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

Statistics

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Recent Predictions

Ozy will get back together with internet feminism by 2014 ( 68% confidence )

Created by shlevy on 2013-07-28; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by shlevy on 2014-01-01.
SMBC Comics: A comic involving penis size as the cross product of legs will appear before September 2013 ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by jasticE on 2013-07-28; known on 2013-09-01; judged right by mfb on 2013-08-02.
HP MoR: Harry will, at some point in the story or an epilogue, literally tear apart stars (for star lifting purposes perhaps), and this is what the “tear apart the very stars in heaven” phrase in the prophecy was referring to. ( 62% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by ygert on 2013-07-28; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-31.
HP MOR: “And then he greeted Death as an old friend and went with him gladly, departing this life as equals.” this is a quote from harry potter cannon. my prediction is that being marked as an equal in HPMOR refers to the invisibility cloak. ( 12% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by esran on 2013-07-28; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
<i>To the Stars</i>: Homura will achieve peace when Madoka manages to manifest in reality. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by linkhyrule5 on 2013-07-27; known on 2020-01-01.
Alexei Navalny becomes president or prime minister of Russia by the year 2028. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-07-26; known on 2028-12-31.
Unequally Yoked: Ideological Turing Test - Christian Entry #12 is written by an atheist. ( 90% confidence )

Created by modernalgebra on 2013-07-26; known on 2013-09-01; judged right by modernalgebra on 2013-09-25.
Unequally Yoked: Ideological Turing Test - Christian Entry #11 is written by an atheist. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by modernalgebra on 2013-07-26; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by modernalgebra on 2013-09-25.
Unequally Yoked: Ideological Turing Test - Christian Entry #10 is written by an atheist. ( 51% confidence )

Created by modernalgebra on 2013-07-26; known on 2013-09-01; judged right by modernalgebra on 2013-09-25.
Unequally Yoked: Ideological Turing Test - Christian Entry #9 is written by an atheist. ( 15% confidence )

Created by modernalgebra on 2013-07-26; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by modernalgebra on 2013-09-25.
Unequally Yoked: Ideological Turing Test - Christian Entry #8 is written by an atheist. ( 30% confidence )

Created by modernalgebra on 2013-07-26; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by modernalgebra on 2013-09-25.
Unequally Yoked: Ideological Turing Test - Christian Entry #7 is written by an atheist. ( 35% confidence )

Created by modernalgebra on 2013-07-26; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by modernalgebra on 2013-09-25.
Unequally Yoked: Ideological Turing Test - Christian Entry #6 is written by an atheist. ( 20% confidence )

Created by modernalgebra on 2013-07-26; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by modernalgebra on 2013-09-25.
Unequally Yoked: Ideological Turing Test - Christian Entry #5 is written by an atheist. ( 65% confidence )

Created by modernalgebra on 2013-07-26; known on 2013-09-01; judged right by modernalgebra on 2013-09-25.
Unequally Yoked: Ideological Turing Test - Christian Entry #4 is written by an atheist. ( 55% confidence )

Created by modernalgebra on 2013-07-26; known on 2013-09-01; judged right by modernalgebra on 2013-09-25.
Unequally Yoked: Ideological Turing Test - Christian Entry #3 is written by an atheist. ( 45% confidence )

Created by modernalgebra on 2013-07-26; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by modernalgebra on 2013-09-25.
Unequally Yoked: Ideological Turing Test - Christian Entry #2 is written by an atheist. ( 35% confidence )

Created by modernalgebra on 2013-07-26; known on 2013-09-01; judged right by modernalgebra on 2013-09-25.
Unequally Yoked: Ideological Turing Test Christian Entry 1 is written by an atheist. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by modernalgebra on 2013-07-26; known on 2013-09-01; judged right by modernalgebra on 2013-09-25.
Max will be non-vegan for at least two of the following six days, starting today. ( 30% confidence )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-26; known on 2013-08-02; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-08-02.
HP MoR: Quirinus Quirrell is actually Nymphadora Tonks. ( 0% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by ygert on 2013-07-25; known on 2014-07-25; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-13.
HP MoR: The snake patronus is from Quirrell. ( 1% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by ygert on 2013-07-25; known on 2013-08-21; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2013-08-15.
HP MoR: The snake patronus is from Draco. ( 90% confidence; 22 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by ygert on 2013-07-25; known on 2013-08-21; judged right by lavalamp on 2013-08-15.
A manned flyby of Venus will happen in the next 20 years ( 6% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by anotherfate on 2013-07-25; known on 2033-07-25.
HP MoR: Harry will learn the killing curse by the end of the year or Quirrell will be disappointed that Harry has not learned the killing curse by the end of the year. ( 31% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Cakoluchiam on 2013-07-24; known on 2014-05-15; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
Canonical will be acquired before 2015 ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by dhoe on 2013-07-23; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by dhoe on 2014-12-31.
Ubuntu Edge will raise 32 million dollar on IndieGoGo ( 22% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by dhoe on 2013-07-23; known on 2013-08-21; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-08-22.
Colorado Springs city council will vote against the opt-out of Amendment 64. ( 60% confidence )

Created by PrinceMachiavelli on 2013-07-23; known on 2013-07-24; judged wrong by PrinceMachiavelli on 2013-07-23.
There will be a university/college-affiliated study on polyphasic sleep that begins within a year. ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-07-22; known on 2014-07-22; judged wrong by Malcolm Ocean on 2014-07-23.
At least 5 people taking part in the July2013 Leverage polyphasic adaptation will be sleeping polyphasically as of Aug 1, 2014. ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-07-22; known on 2014-08-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
At least 5 people taking part in the July2013 Leverage polyphasic adaptation will be sleeping polyphasically as of Oct 1, 2013. ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-07-22; known on 2013-10-01; judged wrong by Malcolm Ocean on 2014-01-03.
At least 3 people taking part in the July2013 Leverage polyphasic adaptation will be sleeping polyphasically as of Jan 1, 2014. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-07-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Malcolm Ocean on 2014-01-03.
At least 3 people taking part in the July2013 Leverage polyphasic adaptation will be sleeping polyphasically as of Aug 1, 2014. ( 60% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-07-22; known on 2014-08-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
At least 1 person taking part in the July2013 Leverage polyphasic adaptation will STILL be on a nap-only schedule (e.g. uberman) as of Sept 1, 2013. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-07-22; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-09-01.
At least 3 people taking part in the July2013 Leverage polyphasic adaptation will be sleeping polyphasically as of Oct 1, 2013. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-07-22; known on 2013-10-01; judged right by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-10-02.
At least 1 person taking part in the July2013 Leverage polyphasic adaptation will STILL be on a nap-only schedule (e.g. uberman) as of Nov 1, 2013. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-07-22; known on 2013-11-01; judged wrong by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-09-01.
At least 5 people taking part in the July2013 Leverage polyphasic adaptation will be sleeping polyphasically as of Jan 1, 2014. ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-07-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Malcolm Ocean on 2014-01-03.
I will complete a total of at least 24 blog posts in 2013. ( 95% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-07-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Malcolm Ocean on 2014-01-02.
I will make my fifth prediction within a week ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-07-22; known on 2013-07-29; judged right by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-07-22.
Joey and Xio's study will find further evidence in favor of vegetarianism advocacy ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-20; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2014-03-20.
Nick will come over for Fun Time at least once within the next seven days. ( 40% confidence )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-20; known on 2013-07-27; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-21.
Max will be non-vegan for at least two of the following seven days, starting today. ( 30% confidence )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-20; known on 2013-07-26; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-26.
GSoC 2013: “Haskell Qt Binding Generator” ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-07-20; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-13.
GSoC 2013: “Extending GHC to support building modules in parallel” ( 33% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-07-20; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2014-01-13.
GSoC 2013: “Parallelise `cabal build`” ( 33% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-07-20; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-13.
GSoC 2013: “Improve the feedback of the cabal-install dependency solver” ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-07-20; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-13.
GSoC 2013: “Communicating with mobile devices” ( 25% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-07-20; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-13.
GSoC 2013: “Better record command for darcs” ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2013-07-20; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2014-01-10.
GSoC 2013: “Port Charts to use Diagrams” ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2013-07-20; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2014-01-08.
GSoC 2013: “interactive-diagrams and a paste site with the ability for dynamic rendering of diagrams” ( 35% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-07-20; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2014-01-08.
GSoC 2013: “Overloaded record fields for GHC” ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-07-20; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-08.
GSoC 2013: “Enhancing Darcsden” ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2013-07-20; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2014-01-08.
Vitor will crawl at least 6 feet in less than 30 seconds before he is 7 months old. ( 65% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-07-19; known on 2013-09-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-08-29.
MX will accept my friend request within a week ( 70% confidence )

Created by PineapplesBlue on 2013-07-19; known on 2013-07-26; judged right by PineapplesBlue on 2013-07-21.
I will have read at least 40 books during 2013. ( 1% confidence )

Created by azax1 on 2013-07-19; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by azax1 on 2014-01-01.
My favorite (fiction) book will be “Earth Abides” on January 1, 2015. ( 40% confidence )

Created by azax1 on 2013-07-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by azax1 on 2015-01-27.
My favorite (fiction) book will be “Earth Abides” on January 1, 2014. ( 90% confidence )

Created by azax1 on 2013-07-19; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by azax1 on 2014-01-01.
Dumbledore is the mastermind behind the troll plot. ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by azax1 on 2013-07-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by azax1 on 2015-03-09.
I will have read at least 35 books during 2013. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by azax1 on 2013-07-19; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by azax1 on 2014-01-01.
I will have read at least 30 books during 2013. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by azax1 on 2013-07-19; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by azax1 on 2014-01-01.
I will have read at least 25 books during 2013. ( 95% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by azax1 on 2013-07-19; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by azax1 on 2015-06-23.
Yvain will be fired (or asked to resign) from his Psychiatrist position due to breach of confidentiality in the next 2 years. ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Tenoke on 2013-07-18; known on 2015-07-18; judged wrong by Malcolm Ocean on 2015-07-19.
HP MoR: An event will take place between May 14th and May 16th which either narrowly invokes or narrowly avoids Professor McGonagall's ch.17 threat to “string [Harry] up by the gates of Hogwarts with [his] own intestines and pour ﬁre down [his] throat.” ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cakoluchiam on 2013-07-18; known on 2014-05-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.
HP MoR: Harry had a hand in the disappearance of Hermione's corpse. ( 80% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by ygert on 2013-07-18; known on 2015-06-23; judged right by Roxolan on 2015-03-01.
HP MoR: Professor Quirrel is manipulating Harry into getting the Philosopher's stone for him (as of ch95) ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Kurosymph on 2013-07-18; known on 2014-01-16; judged right by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
Nick will actually move out today (defined as not sleeping for any amount of time greater than twenty minutes at this house within the next ten hours) ( 95% confidence )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-17; known on 2013-07-18; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-18.
HP MoR: It will be revealed (either in the story or by Eliezer outside it) that it is impossible to lie in Parseltongue. ( 45% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by 75th on 2013-07-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-03.
In addition to Pluto's 5 known moons, at least 3 additional satellites will be identified following the New Horizons fly-by. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by dusk on 2013-07-17; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-31.
Apple to introduce a flatscreen TV product within 2 years. Cf. http://qz.com/104796/heres-all-the-evidence-that-apple-is-making-an-actual-tv-and-the-remote-will-likely-be-your-hand/ ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2013-07-16; known on 2015-07-16; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2015-08-22.
I will be finished with this transcription task by 5pm ( 75% confidence )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-16; known on 2013-07-16; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-16.
Elon Musk's Hyperloop will consist of vehicles travelling in a tunnel or enclosed tube ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by phreeza on 2013-07-16; known on 2013-08-13; judged right by phreeza on 2013-08-12.
Elon Musk's Hyperloop will be some variation of a Lofstrom loop ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by phreeza on 2013-07-16; known on 2013-08-13; judged wrong by phreeza on 2013-08-12.
At some point before 2014, 1% or more of my investment portfolio will be in Bitcoin. ( 40% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-07-16; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-11-11.
In one week, I will own or borrow a bike. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-15; known on 2013-07-23; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-23.
Within one week, I will have one month membership to a local gym in the UK. ( 40% confidence )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-15; known on 2013-07-23; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-23.
Within one week (through either my action or inaction) my phone will function normally (i.e., be used to send texts and calls at a rate less than $0.50 per text and $2.50 per minute) in the United Kingdom. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-15; known on 2013-07-23; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-23.
OoTS: It will take the Order of the Stick 1-3 strips to escape from Team Evil. (In other words, they will escape in #903 or before.)(From http://www.giantitp.com/forums/showpost.php?p=15617403&postcount=15) ( 70% confidence )

Created by ygert on 2013-07-15; known on 2013-08-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-07-22.
Elon Musk's hyperloop method of transportation will not be an underground solution. ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by zpinter on 2013-07-15; known on 2013-09-01; judged right by zpinter on 2013-08-12.
Minotaurs will be a tribe in Theros. ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Mathias Zaman on 2013-07-15; known on 2013-09-21; judged right by Mathias Zaman on 2014-11-19.
Amazon will purchase 50% of PayPal from Ebay by the end of 2014. ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by dovfischer on 2013-07-15; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by ericlefevre on 2014-12-31.
HPMOR updates this Wednesday. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by tedks on 2013-07-15; known on 2013-07-18; judged right by tedks on 2013-07-18.
At the end of the EA Weekend Away Debate, at least one person will change their opinion to favor animal welfare. ( 10% confidence )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-14; known on 2013-07-14; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-14.
At the end of the EA Weekend Away Debate, at least one person will change their opinion to favor existential risk. ( 30% confidence )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-14; known on 2013-07-14; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-14.
At the end of the EA Weekend Away Debate, at least one person will change their opinion to favor poverty. ( 10% confidence )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-14; known on 2013-07-14; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-14.
In the EA Weekend Away Debate, the majority of people will favor animal welfare as their top cause. ( 1% confidence )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-14; known on 2013-07-14; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-14.
In the EA Weekend Away Debate, the majority of people will favor existential risk as their top cause. ( 40% confidence )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-14; known on 2013-07-14; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-14.
In the EA Weekend Away Debate, the majority of people will favor poverty as their top cause. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-14; known on 2013-07-14; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-14.
I will get a A or better in CSE 110: Principles of Programming with Java. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-07-14; known on 2013-09-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-08-17.
I will get a B or better in CSE 110: Principles of Programming with Java. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-07-14; known on 2013-09-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-08-17.
I will get a C or better in CSE 110: Principles of Programming with Java. ( 95% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-07-14; known on 2013-09-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-08-17.
Within the next week there will be one or more riots attributed to the Zimmerman verdict by a mainstream news outlet. ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by beo_shaffer on 2013-07-14; known on 2013-07-21; judged right by beo_shaffer on 2013-07-21.
There is an mobile version of the PredictionBook website as of July 13th, 2013 ( 65% confidence )

Created by Cakoluchiam on 2013-07-14; known on 2013-07-14; judged wrong by Cakoluchiam on 2013-07-14.
There is no PredictionBook app nor official quicklink for a mobile version of PredictionBook as of July 13th, 2013. ( 65% confidence )

Created by Cakoluchiam on 2013-07-14; known on 2013-07-14; judged right by Cakoluchiam on 2013-07-14.
There is no PredictionBook app as of July 13th 2013. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Cakoluchiam on 2013-07-14; known on 2013-07-14; judged right by Cakoluchiam on 2013-07-14.
Within five years, Gwern will be hired as a “statistician columnist” by a mainstream blog; “mainstream blog” is defined as a blog with no less than 1/6th of the annual traffic theverge.com currently gets. ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by halfwit on 2013-07-13; known on 2018-07-14; judged wrong by enolan on 2018-08-27.
Dexter Season 8: Dexter goes to jail ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jasticE on 2013-07-13; known on 2013-09-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-09-23.
Dexter Season 8: Harrison draws pictures involving murder or dead people. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jasticE on 2013-07-13; known on 2013-09-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-09-23.
Dexter Season 8: Harrison shows development of a “dark passenger”; Debra takes the role of his guide, as Harry was for Dexter. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jasticE on 2013-07-13; known on 2013-09-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-09-23.
Dexter Season 8: Batista dies ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jasticE on 2013-07-13; known on 2013-09-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-09-23.
30 copies of the “Further reading an exercises” will be sufficient at the talk on intermediate complexity classes at the Less Wrong meetup. ( 65% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-07-13; known on 2013-07-14; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-07-14.
HP MoR: Dumbledore was involved in the attack that ended Narcissa Malfoy's life, but did not cast the spell that killed her. ( 41% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by 75th on 2013-07-13; known on 2016-01-05; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.