On August 12, “Chandra, Pyromaster” will be sold at 19.95$ or more on starcitygames.com ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Roxolan on 2013-07-12; known on 2013-08-12; judged wrong by Roxolan on 2013-08-12.

No confirmed sightings of Snowden in Moscow in the next month ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by phreeza on 2013-07-12; known on 2013-08-12; judged wrong by phreeza on 2013-07-12.

HP MoR: the troll attack in ch88-89 was executed by Lucius Malfoy ( 11% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Petruchio on 2013-07-11; known on 2015-06-30; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-21.

I will pass my Ohio Driver's Licensee Test today. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-10; known on 2013-07-10; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-10.

My current programming project will be at least 10,000 lines of code (including comments and whitespace) by the end of summer. ( 30% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-07-08; known on 2013-09-24; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2013-09-24.

I will take at least 50 credit hours during the 2013-14 school year. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-07-08; known on 2014-06-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-06-01.

I will take at least 45 credit hours during the 2013-14 school year. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-07-08; known on 2014-06-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-06-01.

By 1 January 2014, I will have at least 20,000 comment karma on Reddit. ( 5% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-07-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-01.

By 1 January 2014, I will have at least 100 link karma on Reddit. ( 25% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-07-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-01.

By 1 January 2014, I will have at least 15,000 comment karma on Reddit. ( 25% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-07-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-01.

By 1 January 2014, I will have at least 500 karma on Less Wrong. ( 25% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-07-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-01.

HP MoR: While the diamond was just transfigured from his father's rock, the ring itself was also transfigured from Hermione's remains or part thereof, thus getting past Dumbledore's scanning for transfigured objects that Harry may have had on his person ( 42% confidence; 28 wagers; 14 comments )

Created by ygert on 2013-07-08; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by tedks on 2015-02-28.

Airplanes are becoming less safe in the 2010's than they were in the 2000's in the U.S. ( 36% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-07-06; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2022-01-03.

My lungs will not be hurting. ( 30% confidence )

Created by High_Fiber_Twigs on 2013-07-06; known on 2013-07-06; judged wrong by High_Fiber_Twigs on 2013-07-06.

New Mersenne prime discovered by January 1, 2016. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-07-06; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Jach on 2016-01-10.

HP MoR: Snape kills Dumbledore ( 22% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Flailingjunk on 2013-07-06; known on 2015-01-02; judged wrong by ygert on 2015-03-23.

VLDL is associated with transfat and not with carbs such as fructose ( 70% confidence )

Created by meisnewbie on 2013-07-05; known on 2013-07-06; judged wrong by meisnewbie on 2013-07-06.

Powershame will release an alpha for Linux by July 22, 2013 ( 80% confidence )

Created by jaibot on 2013-07-03; known on 2013-07-22; judged wrong by jaibot on 2013-07-23.

HP MoR: The phrase “the very stars in heaven” in the prophecy refers to the Black family, as per http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/hvg/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/9ajh . ( 4% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by ygert on 2013-07-03; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by ygert on 2015-03-23.

Anyone in #lesswrong-prog will have a rudimentary or better “Vine for Audio” accessible online before 2013-07-08 00:00 UTC ( 9% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-07-02; known on 2013-07-08; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-07-08.

HP MoR: Minerva McGonagall said “Not your fault” in Chapter 89. ( 12% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by jaibot on 2013-07-02; known on 2013-09-02; judged wrong by jaibot on 2013-07-06.

HP MoR: the general consensus among the Wizengamot and/or the populus of magical Britain in the wake of the events of chapters 88-90 will blame Lucius Malfoy for releasing the troll in Hogwarts as a means of getting revenge on Hermione. ( 15% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by ygert on 2013-07-02; known on 2014-02-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-01-02.

HP MoR: The Philosopher's Stone is an Horcrux. ( 13% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Kurosymph on 2013-07-02; known on 2014-01-16; judged wrong by player_03 on 2015-03-16.

Snowden turns himself in to US authorities before 2016 ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by phreeza on 2013-07-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

Comprehensive immigration reform will get through the House of Representitives, that has a) path to legalizations for undocumented immigrants given they pay back tax debt b) skill/ merit based immigration decisions, and a deprioritization of family connec ( 23% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by hucavanagh on 2013-07-01; known on 2014-11-02; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-11-02.

HP MoR: Hermione will make a Horcrux chronologically before or during the events of ch89 ( 17% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-07-01; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2015-03-23.

HP MOR: Events of ch 89 aren't what they appear to be. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by bt_uytya on 2013-07-01; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by David on 2015-06-23.

HP MOR: Ch 90 will imply that sanity of Harry was damaged in the way that it isn't obvious that we should root for him as opposed to his foes. ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by bt_uytya on 2013-07-01; known on 2013-07-02; judged wrong by bt_uytya on 2013-07-02.

HP MoR: During the current crisis, after (in real time) end of chapter 89, no potentially dangerous person or creature will be loose and alone anywhere in Hogwarts where a student would normally be. ( 50% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by Robert on 2013-06-30; known on 2013-07-02; judged wrong by Robert on 2013-07-04.

HP MOR: Dumbledore is Hat and Cloak ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by pkfalu92 on 2013-06-30; known on 2015-06-30; judged wrong by rictic on 2015-05-16.

HP MoR: the troll attack in ch88-89 was executed by Severus Snape ( 18% confidence; 23 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-06-30; known on 2015-06-30; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-03.

HP MoR: Hermione has or will become a magical Hogwarts ghost ( 13% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-06-30; known on 2015-06-30; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-16.

Half-Life 3 will be announced this summer ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by alecbrooks on 2013-06-29; known on 2013-09-23; judged wrong by alecbrooks on 2013-09-23.

I will gain 2 lbs (weight >= 120 lbs) in one month. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-06-27; known on 2013-07-27; judged wrong by ashrewdmint on 2013-07-30.

HP MoR: Bellatrix Black burned Narcissa Malfoy alive. ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by RobertLumley on 2013-06-24; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.

Snowden arrested by US authorities before 2014 ( 24% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by dhoe on 2013-06-23; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-12-31.

A 'human organ' grown in a non-human animal will be successfully transplanted into a human within 1 year. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-06-22; known on 2014-06-22; judged wrong by phreeza on 2014-07-29.

I will have submitted my paper on Artin repreentations by 11:30 AM EST Monay ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-06-20; known on 2013-06-24; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-06-28.

My final grade in THINK25 will be an A. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-06-16; known on 2013-06-21; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2013-06-19.

My final grade in Math108 will be a B+. ( 30% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-06-16; known on 2013-06-21; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2013-06-19.

My final grade in CS161 will be an A. ( 40% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-06-16; known on 2013-06-21; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2013-06-19.

I predict An1 exam is 3 hours long and re-exam is 4 hrs. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Mossa Nova on 2013-06-11; known on 2013-06-11; judged wrong by Mossa Nova on 2013-06-11.

Christine Quinn will be elected mayor of New York City in the upcoming election (regardless of whether there is a runoff election or not). ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-06-10; known on 2013-11-05; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-11-05.

The information collected by PRISM that's listed as being from Google and Facebook will turn out to have been collected via some means other than a backdoor API/access provided by the companies themselves. ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by zpinter on 2013-06-07; known on 2014-06-07; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-02.

A live-action Metal Gear movie will be released before 2020 and Kiefer Sutherland will play Snake or Big Boss. ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-06-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

Blizzcon 2014 will announce Titan, a game made by Blizzard Activision. During the announcement they will reveal that the game does not have a subscription fee, but shares one. They will plan to tie in WoW's sub fee with Titans sub fee, to make 1 sub fee.. ( 41% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Dodgson on 2013-06-02; known on 2013-06-02; judged wrong by quanticle on 2014-09-24.

General election will occur in Tunisia before the end of 2013 ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lilia on 2013-05-31; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.

Ubuntu will create its very own Kernel within the next five years, ( 13% confidence; 18 wagers; 20 comments )

Created by peterc on 2013-05-28; known on 2018-06-01; judged wrong by moyamo on 2018-06-13.

Not Beautiful Line is from Charlottenlund or another obscure fancy place. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Mossa Nova on 2013-05-27; known on 2013-05-31; judged wrong by Mossa Nova on 2013-05-28.

OOTS: Vaarsuvius's gender will be revealed in one of the comic strips or in the additional material of the published versions. ( 15% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by itaibn on 2013-05-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2020-01-02.

In the AFL, the Hawks will defeat Geelong in round 15. ( 55% confidence )

Created by atroche on 2013-05-26; known on 2017-07-06; judged wrong by atroche on 2013-09-17.

Clojure will move up in the rankings of The Transparent Language Popularity Index by the end of 2013. ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by atroche on 2013-05-26; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.

Segways will make a comeback before 12/31/2016 ( 29% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-24; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.

xkcd #1217 will be composed primarily of a graph or diagram. ( 17% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by itaibn on 2013-05-24; known on 2013-05-27; judged wrong by itaibn on 2013-05-27.

The Magic set “Theros” will have a legend subtheme, hereby defined as: at least 20 legends and at least 5 cards that explicitly interact with legends. ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Roxolan on 2013-05-23; known on 2013-09-27; judged wrong by Roxolan on 2013-09-14.

German Minister of Defence will resign before the election ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by dhoe on 2013-05-22; known on 2013-09-30; judged wrong by phreeza on 2013-09-23.

By 2014, US will have passed to law to give a tax break to corporations to bring their money back home ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-01-14.

One of the three things will lead to Udyr being Flavor of the Month: Ghost usage in the jungle, AS item buffs such as Wit's End and the gold efficiency of tank items. (Sytha) Conditioning on these things all still holding true before the deadline is up ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by meisnewbie on 2013-05-20; known on 2013-08-20; judged wrong by meisnewbie on 2013-08-24.