PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Yahoo will buy Tumblr for over $1b. ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-19; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2013-06-02.

Google will release or support the release of a browser-based api for interacting with devices over bluetooth. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by zpinter on 2013-05-18; known on 2016-05-18; judged right by kuudes on 2016-05-21.

Virtual Retinal Displays become the dominant technology for heads up displays ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PrometheanFaun on 2013-05-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-14.

The US deficit will not fall below $300 billion at any point in the second term of President Obama. ( 74% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by elmerfudd1 on 2013-05-16; known on 2016-11-11; judged right by elmerfudd1 on 2016-11-15.

Schreiber will be bought and employee stock cashed out. ( 50% confidence )

Created by viveutvivas on 2013-05-15; known on 2017-12-16.

The Stig is Sabine Schmitz and this will be reported by a mainstream newspaper before 2020. ( 5% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-05-15; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

US government will indicts MtGox or its officers on criminal charges. ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by kiba on 2013-05-15; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.

There exist infinitely many primes no more than 500,000 apart, proven by 2035 ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-05-14; known on 2035-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-06-06.

Twin prime conjecture solved by 2020 ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-05-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

Twin prime conjecture solved by 2050 ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-05-14; known on 2050-01-01.

In the 15 June 2013 episode of Welcome to Night Vale, the army from the lost city beneath the bowling alley will invade Night Vale and the Apache Tracker will be killed (but not mourned). ( 80% confidence )

Created by zozo on 2013-05-14; known on 2013-06-15; judged right by zozo on 2013-06-17.

JB will win. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Matt on 2013-05-14; known on 2013-05-17; judged right by Matt on 2013-05-22.

OOTS: Comic #887 is Elan's prophesized happy ending. ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by itaibn on 2013-05-13; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by itaibn on 2013-05-22.

A “reformist” will be elected president of Iran ( 55% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-13; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.

Mathematician Shinichi Mochizuki's proof on the ABC Conjecture will be verified to be valid by 2035. ( 22% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Tuxedage on 2013-05-11; known on 2035-01-01.

HP MoR: neither Quirrellmort, nor Snape, nor Dumbledore, nor Lucius, nor Hermione is responsible for framing Hermione. ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-05-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by DrDiaphanous on 2015-02-19.

HP MoR: Hermione alone is responsible for the attempted murder. ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-05-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by DrDiaphanous on 2015-02-19.

HP MoR: Lucius Malfoy is responsible for framing Hermione. ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-05-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by DrDiaphanous on 2015-02-19.

HP MoR: Dumbledore is responsible for framing Hermione. ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-05-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by DrDiaphanous on 2015-02-19.

In HPMOR, Snape is responsible for framing Hermione. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-05-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by DrDiaphanous on 2015-02-19.

HP MoR: Quirrellmort is responsible for framing Hermione. ( 59% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-05-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by DrDiaphanous on 2015-02-19.

'Abigail Boyd' will respond with a link or other form of an auction website instead of a real offer. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-05-09; known on 2013-07-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-17.

I will graduate with a degree in any field other than economics from Washington University in St Louis ( 25% confidence )

Created by Isaac on 2013-05-09; known on 2017-05-09; judged wrong by Isaac on 2017-05-24.

I will graduate from Washington University in St Louis with a degree in Economics in 2017 ( 75% confidence )

Created by Isaac on 2013-05-09; known on 2017-05-16; judged right by Isaac on 2017-05-24.

I will receive an economics PhD within the next 10 years ( 20% confidence )

Created by Isaac on 2013-05-09; known on 2023-05-09.

I will receive my first choice of dorming at Washington University in St Louis ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Isaac on 2013-05-09; known on 2013-08-09; judged wrong by Isaac on 2013-08-09.

Rep. Edward Markey (D) defeats Gabriel Gomez® in the Massachusetts Senate special election ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-05-09; known on 2013-06-26; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-06-26.

Conditioned on his political affiliation being outed before the year 2024, Mark Zuckerberg will be outed as a Republican ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-09; known on 2024-01-01.

As of when this prediction was made, the US government routinely saves a recording of a majority of domestic phone calls and emails, as per www.overcomingbias.com/2013/05/us-record-all-calls.html. ( 45% confidence; 8 wagers; 17 comments )

Created by ygert on 2013-05-08; known on 2033-05-08.

The press will report a DYI synthetic organism product is banned, before a 3D printed gun product is banned ( 65% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-08; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-05-10.

Kickstarter will ban at least one high profile DYI synthetic organism project by 2015 ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by phreeza on 2015-01-08.

I will attempt suicide within the following decade. ( 6% confidence; 4 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by Tuxedage on 2013-05-08; known on 2020-01-01; judged unknown by Tuxedage on 2021-11-02.

I will be accepted into a top 10 Economics PHD program in the following decade. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Tuxedage on 2013-05-08; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2021-11-02.

ArenaNet will sponsor a Guild Wars 2 PvP tournament with grand prize valued at at least $100,000 in 2013. ( 66% confidence )

Created by tylercurtis on 2013-05-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by tylercurtis on 2014-08-01.

Conditional on civilization not collapsing, emulations will be developed sometime between 25 and 150 years from now. — Robin Hanson ( 75% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Pablo on 2013-05-06; known on 2162-01-01.

Every planeswalker printed until 2017 will have at least one planeswalker ability that can always be used (regardless of board state or remaining loyalty). ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Roxolan on 2013-05-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Roxolan on 2017-01-01.

Google Nexus tablets survive longer than Microsoft Surface tablets as a business ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-03; known on 2025-01-01.

Larry Page will survive 5 years as Google CEO ( 76% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by davatk on 2018-05-08.

Google Chrome browser will survive 5 years ( 93% confidence; 27 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.

Google Chrome OS will survive 5 years ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by crabman on 2018-05-16.

Rhode Island will legalize gay marriage within two weeks ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-05-03; known on 2013-05-17; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-05-03.

Google Translate will survive 5 years ( 90% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-03; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2013-05-04.

Google Search will survive 5 years ( 98% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-03; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.

Google Project Glass will survive 5 years ( 57% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-03; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-28.

Google Voice will survive 5 more years ( 46% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )