The next US president (after Obama) will also be a Democrat. ( 53% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Osuniev on 2013-04-15; known on 2016-11-15; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-11-09.

The Supreme Court will overturn the ability to patent genes. ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Tuxedage on 2013-04-14; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-06-13.

By 2015, evidence (such as a full-text paper) will emerge indicating that the supposed results of the 1995 Jarzombek study of US Defense software projects were in fact the result of error, distorsion or fraud rather than conclusions from an actual survey ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2013-04-13; known on 2015-01-16; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2015-08-22.

By 2015, evidence (such as a full-text paper) will emerge indicating that the 1995 Jarzombek study of US Defense software projects exists, was collected independently of the 1979 GAO data set, and independently found the same frequencies. ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2013-04-13; known on 2015-01-16; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2015-08-22.

Within two months of making this prediction, the US Senate will pass some form of bill with the stated intention of making it more difficult to buy guns (gun registry, assault weapons ban, etc.). ( 38% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-04-12; known on 2013-06-12; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.

OOTS: While lambasting V about hir familicide, Qarr will unintentionally inspire hir to start acting. ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by itaibn on 2013-04-12; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by itaibn on 2013-04-26.

If I donate blood today, then I will feel sick within 60 minutes from finishing. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-04-11; known on 2013-04-12; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-04-11.

After March 9th, 2013, BTC will hit $300 before it hits $200. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by FestiveBleak on 2013-04-10; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by FestiveBleak on 2013-04-10.

The upcoming Magic: The Gathering set, Dragon's Maze, will contain at least one legendary creature with precisely four colors. ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-04-08; known on 2013-04-27; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-04-22.

Within two months of making this prediction, US President Obama will sign into law some form of bipartisan immigration reform. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-04-08; known on 2013-06-08; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-06-09.

Gold price will be up this year ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by tkosiba on 2013-04-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.

There will be a New York Times article about reactionaries before 2014 ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by dhoe on 2013-04-06; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by dhoe on 2014-01-01.

Spam comments will routinely outnumber real comments/votes on Predictionbook.com by 2014 ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 13 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.

A nuclear disaster equal to or worse than Fukushima will happen this year. ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers )

Created by hedges on 2013-04-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.

Facebook stock will go below 20 this month. ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by hedges on 2013-04-04; known on 2013-05-01; judged wrong by hedges on 2013-05-01.

North Korea will be in direct military conflict with another nation during this year. ( 15% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by hedges on 2013-04-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.

Bitcoin is exchanged at or below $2 by early July ( 2% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jach on 2013-04-03; known on 2013-07-08; judged wrong by Jach on 2013-07-08.

Bitcoin will hit the $30 mark (currently $100) sometime in the next 2 months. ( 30% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Tuxedage on 2013-04-01; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by phreeza on 2013-07-02.

Now that Goodreads has been acquired by Amazon, “I doubt it will survive in its current form for more than 2 years.” — Joey Hess ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by alecbrooks on 2013-04-01; known on 2015-04-01; judged wrong by alecbrooks on 2015-04-04.

Yomi will be released for iOS by May 15th ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by FestiveBleak on 2013-03-31; known on 2013-05-15; judged wrong by FestiveBleak on 2013-05-15.

The Fantasy Strike UI upgrade for Yomi will go live by May 15th ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by FestiveBleak on 2013-03-31; known on 2013-05-15; judged wrong by FestiveBleak on 2013-05-15.

There will be a computer input device that is faster at text input than a keyboard (average of 1.5x speedup or more), reasonably quiet (not standard text dictation), and does not require the use of the eyes. Used by 20% of software developers. ( 25% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by zpinter on 2013-03-31; known on 2018-03-31; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-04-05.

xkcd “Time” will show its last unique frame before May 1 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by itaibn on 2013-03-31; known on 2013-05-01; judged wrong by itaibn on 2013-05-01.

Supremes make same-sex marriage law of the land. ( 38% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-03-27; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2014-01-01.

The Magic: the Gathering card previewed in ReConstructed during the first week of Dragon's Maze previews will be Selesnya's Guild Champion. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Thelas on 2013-03-26; known on 2013-04-02; judged wrong by Thelas on 2013-04-09.

Italian Supreme Court in Rome will confirm acquittal of Amanda Knox and Raffaele Sollecito on charge of killing Meredith Kercher. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by komponisto on 2013-03-25; known on 2013-03-26; judged wrong by komponisto on 2013-03-26.

Miami Heat will break the Lakers 33 game consecutive win streak in 2013 ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-03-25; known on 2013-04-15; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-03-28.

HPMoR: Quirrels prediction that Voldemort killed the snake in the chamber of secrets will turn out to incorrect. ( 16% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by ChristianKl on 2013-03-24; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by player_03 on 2015-03-04.

My second wisdom teeth will emerge in the next month ( 90% confidence )

Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-03-23; known on 2013-04-23; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-04-27.

Cyprus will leave the EU before 2017 ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-03-23; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.

One of the G-20 governments (or superentities like EU) will ban bitcoins before 2017 ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-03-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.

Harvard will make it to the round of 16 in the 2013 NCAA tournament ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-03-22; known on 2013-04-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-03-24.

Cyprus will leave the Euro in 2013 ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by phreeza on 2013-03-21; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by hedges on 2013-12-31.

Cyprus will leave the EU before 2014 ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by dhoe on 2013-03-20; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-12-31.

UFO ET ORBITS MONDAY ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-03-19; known on 2013-03-25; judged wrong by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-03.

The Veronica Mars movie Kickstarter will break the all-tme Kickstarter record of $10.3 million. ( 20% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by alecbrooks on 2013-03-17; known on 2013-04-12; judged wrong by hedges on 2013-04-12.

Italy's President (Napolitano) will resign before May 2013 ( 27% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-03-15; known on 2013-05-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-04-22.

There will be five or six newcomers at the next Brussels LessWrong meetup. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Roxolan on 2013-03-12; known on 2013-03-16; judged wrong by Roxolan on 2013-03-16.

Detection of free oxygen on an exoplanet by end of the year. ( 17% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-03-12; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by phreeza on 2014-01-01.

The deep dark web will come under fire from a murder for hire plot setup on the dark web 'hidden wiki' ( 30% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by ledzep6551 on 2013-03-11; known on 2013-09-11; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-02-08.

Angelo Scola will be the next pope. ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-03-11; known on 2013-04-01; judged wrong by simplicio on 2013-03-13.

MetaMed to face legal challenges from regulators by 2016 (S.T. Rev via Twitter). ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by simplicio on 2013-03-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2015-09-02.

“In 2022 more than 60% of US engineering undergraduate seniors will have tried a legal brain enhancing supplemental substance.” (Kevin Fischer XFF 2012) [excluding Caffeine] ( 50% confidence; 11 comments )

Created by dusk on 2013-03-05; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-12.

I will have my drivers license by May 1, 2013. ( 95% confidence )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-03-04; known on 2013-05-01; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-05-01.

Falkland islanders to vote No (i.e., against British-administered status quo) in referendum March 10-11. ( 5% confidence )

Created by simplicio on 2013-03-02; known on 2013-03-12; judged wrong by simplicio on 2013-03-12.

C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring) will hit Mars ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by dhoe on 2013-03-02; known on 2014-11-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-10-28.

The professor will offer some sort of reward to the students who show up at today's optional class ( 30% confidence )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-03-01; known on 2013-03-02; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-03-01.

Today's optional class will be worth attending ( 40% confidence )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-03-01; known on 2013-03-02; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-03-01.