PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Tamara(tutor of FPM) will give a chance to us to have Frank Gery's lecture next Tuesday (15th of March 2011). ( 65% confidence )

Created by Eunseo on 2011-03-08; known on 2011-03-15; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-03-16.

I will be right time for yoga class! ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by nam2001 on 2011-03-08; known on 2011-03-11; judged wrong by nam2001 on 2011-03-11.

I will remember to have lunch before 2pm for the next three days. ( 65% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-08; known on 2011-03-11; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-11.

I'll be massive drunk tmr night. ( 80% confidence )

Created by sailoryoon on 2011-03-08; known on 2011-03-10; judged wrong by sailoryoon on 2011-03-10.

ben will not make it back to comp lab by 4pm. ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jessica Hartany on 2011-03-08; known on 2011-03-08; judged right by Jessica Hartany on 2011-03-08.

Our class will end early today… ( 10% confidence )

Created by alvinTng on 2011-03-08; known on 2011-03-08; judged right by alvinTng on 2011-03-08.

Every student will come to join yoga class.20% of them will join another yoga class individually. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by dumun on 2011-03-08; known on 2011-03-31; judged wrong by dumun on 2011-03-31.

few ppl in our class will get cold this week! ;)) ( 90% confidence )

Created by nam2001 on 2011-03-08; known on 2011-03-11; judged wrong by nam2001 on 2011-04-16.

I will fall asleep reading World War Z tonight due to exhaustion! ( 95% confidence )

Created by DavidPercival on 2011-03-08; known on 2011-03-08; judged right by DavidPercival on 2011-03-08.

angelina will get a window seat when she start work next week. ( 90% confidence )

Created by Jessica Hartany on 2011-03-07; known on 2011-03-15; judged right by Jessica Hartany on 2011-03-15.

We will have released a nav-tool beta by the end of next week ( 65% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-07; known on 2011-03-18; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-20.

My house mate declared that she has quited smoking from today. However, she will restart smoking in a week. ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Eunseo on 2011-03-07; known on 2011-03-14; judged right by Eunseo on 2011-03-08.

Milan will beat Spurs on Wednesday. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-03-07; known on 2011-03-10; judged wrong by dumun on 2011-03-10.

Kelcey will text me tomorrow about something. ( 50% confidence )

Created by maxdemian on 2011-03-07; known on 2011-03-08; judged right by maxdemian on 2011-03-08.

I will read at least one chapter of a book tonight. ( 80% confidence )

Created by maxdemian on 2011-03-07; known on 2011-03-07; judged right by maxdemian on 2011-03-07.

Lee did not call Bethany tonight. ( 70% confidence )

Created by maxdemian on 2011-03-07; known on 2011-03-08; judged right by maxdemian on 2011-03-08.

Gaddafi will not be in power in Libya beyond 2011. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by maxdemian on 2011-03-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-10-21.

Facebook will be valued at less than $30 billion by 2015. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by maxdemian on 2011-03-07; known on 2015-12-30; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-29.

I will aquire a copy of 'Children of the Dust' and watch the TV series in an attempt to develop an understanding of post-apocalyptic survival following nuclear war. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by DavidPercival on 2011-03-07; known on 2011-03-14; judged wrong by DavidPercival on 2011-03-14.

I will finish reading the drowned world and at least 4 papers before class by Tuesday ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Jessica Hartany on 2011-03-07; known on 2011-03-08; judged wrong by Jessica Hartany on 2011-03-08.

I will finish reading the drowned world & island, and will read at least 2 of the papers by tuesday ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jessica Hartany on 2011-03-03; known on 2011-03-07; judged wrong by Jessica Hartany on 2011-03-07.

possible shower this weekend. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jessica Hartany on 2011-03-03; known on 2011-03-05; judged right by Jessica Hartany on 2011-03-07.

Yoshiyuki Sadamoto's Evangelion manga will be finished sometime in 2014 ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-03-03; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2015-01-01.

Yoshiyuki Sadamoto's Evangelion manga will be finished sometime in 2013 ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-03-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2014-01-02.

Yoshiyuki Sadamoto's Evangelion manga will be finished sometime in 2012 ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-03-03; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

Yoshiyuki Sadamoto's Evangelion manga will be finished sometime in 2011 ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-03-03; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-03.

I will call my brother on his birthday. ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-03-03; known on 2011-03-06; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-03-07.

Yoshiyuki Sadamoto will release >=9 stages of the Evangelion manga in 2011 ( 4% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-03-02; known on 2012-01-10; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.

Yoshiyuki Sadamoto will release 5-8 stages of the Evangelion manga in 2011 ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-03-02; known on 2012-01-10; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.

Yoshiyuki Sadamoto will release 3-5 stages of the Evangelion manga in 2011 ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-03-02; known on 2012-01-10; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.

Yoshiyuki Sadamoto will release 0-2 stages of the Evangelion manga in 2011 ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-03-02; known on 2012-01-10; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.

Iphone 5 shape is same as Iphone 4, the onlything different is the antenna will change a bit! ( 33% confidence; 13 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by nam2001 on 2011-03-02; known on 2013-03-16; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-09-18.

The final funnel form will be elliptical ( 40% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-02; known on 2011-05-02; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-02.

The final funnel form will be oval ( 52% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-02; known on 2011-05-02; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-02.

Someone will be sick during or after the field trip on the beach. The trip will be very hard for contemporary well protected people to undergo difficult circumstance. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Eun on 2011-03-01; known on 2011-03-08; judged right by Eunseo on 2011-03-08.

We will receive rain Friday, Saturday and Sunday because we are going to camp on a deserted beach! ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by DavidPercival on 2011-03-01; known on 2011-03-06; judged wrong by DavidPercival on 2011-03-07.

Initial shipments of iPad 2 will have a display that emits circularly polarized light ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-03-01; known on 2011-04-03; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-04-05.

There’s between $5 and $50 in the change jar (inclusive, counted by machine) ( 99% confidence )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-02-27; known on 2011-02-28; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-01.

There’s between $11 and $36 in the change jar (inclusive, counted by machine) ( 90% confidence )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-02-27; known on 2011-02-28; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-01.

There's between $16 and $26 in the change jar (inclusive, counted by machine) ( 75% confidence )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-02-27; known on 2011-02-28; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-01.

There's between $18.00 and $24.00 in the change jar (counted by machine). ( 50% confidence )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-02-27; known on 2011-02-28; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-01.

There is between $20.00 and $22.00 in my change jar (as determined by counting machine). ( 5% confidence )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-02-27; known on 2011-02-28; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-01.

My estimate of the change in my change jar, $21.06, is exactly right (as determined by counting machine). ( 0% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-02-27; known on 2011-02-28; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-01.

'As for [Korean] reunification, I see it in the next five years.' —B.R. Myers ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-02-26; known on 2016-02-23; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-23.

'bitcoins will be unobtainable or obtainable for less than 1 cents (2010 dollars)/btc on 24 February 2021' —ivan ( 45% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-02-24; known on 2021-02-25; judged wrong by gwern on 2021-02-25.

I will complete both canyons (measured from bike to bike) in under 10 hours (http://bit.ly/eftmXP) ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-02-19; known on 2011-02-20; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-02-20.

I will complete both canyons (measured from bike to bike) in under 6 hours (http://bit.ly/eftmXP) ( 50% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-02-19; known on 2011-02-20; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-02-20.

http://www.longbets.org/601 will be a broken link in 11 years —Jeremy Keith ( 13% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-02-19; known on 2022-02-18; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-18.

'1000 dollars per Bitcoin by the end of the year.' —Bruce Wagner ( 4% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-02-17; known on 2012-01-01; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2011-03-07.

80% of my students will have signed up to prediction book and make eight or more predictions by the end of May ( 40% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-02-16; known on 2011-05-30; judged right by DavidPercival on 2011-03-01.

the new guy will continually to wear well ironed shirts into the office until at least the 10th of March 2011. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-02-16; known on 2011-03-10; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-02-24.

'The FCC’s recently-announced network neutrality rules will continue to attract criticism from both ends of the political spectrum, and will be the subject of critical hearings in the Republican House, but neither Congress nor the courts will overturn the ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-02-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-10.

'ICANN still will not have introduced new generic TLDs.' —FtT ( 70% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-02-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-11.

'A distributed naming system for Web/broadcast content will gain substantial mindshare and measurable US usage after the trifecta of attacks on Wikileaks DNS, COICA, and further attacks on privacy-preserving or anonymous registration in the ICANN-sponsore ( 15% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-02-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-02.

'Multiple Wikileaks alternatives will pop up, and pundits will start to realize that mass leaks are enabled by technology trends, not just by one freaky Australian dude.' —FtT ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-02-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-14.

'The market for Internet set-top boxes like Google TV and Apple TV will continue to be chaotic throughout 2011, with no single device taking a decisive market share lead. The big winners will be online services like Netflix, Hulu, and Pandora that work wi ( 75% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-02-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-08-28.

'At year's end, the district court will still not have issued a final judgment on the Google Book Search settlement.' —FtT ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-02-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-14.

'However, Android's gains will mostly be at the low end of the market; the iPhone will continue to outsell any single Android smartphone model by a wide margin.' —FtT ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-02-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-08-28.

'The seemingly N^2 patent lawsuits among all the major smartphone players will be resolved through a grand cross-licensing bargain, cut in a dark, smoky room, whose terms will only be revealed through some congratulatory emails that leak to the press. Non ( 30% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-02-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-01.

“Congress will pass an electronic privacy bill along the lines of the principles set out by the Digital Due Process Coalition.” —FfT ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-02-13; known on 2012-02-13; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-13.

“Copyright and patent issues will continue to be stalemated in Congress, with no major legislation on either subject.” —FfT ( 75% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-02-13; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-08-28.

PD will have 50 or more paid trucks on the system before the end of 2011. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Matt on 2011-02-11; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Matt on 2012-01-30.

80% of my students will sign up to prediction book and make two or more predictions by the end of March ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-02-11; known on 2011-04-01; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2011-04-16.

Melbourne water storages will not drop below 50% during 2011 ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by leejhancox on 2011-02-04; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by muflax on 2012-01-01.

Mubarak will cease to be Egypt's President by 2012. ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-02-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-02-11.

Toy Story 3 will win 2011 Best Animated Oscar. —John Scalzi ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )