PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

'Hewlett-Packard will buy SAP' in 2011 —Chris O'Brien ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.

'Yahoo CEO Carol Bartz will go.' in 2011 —Chris O'Brien ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.

'Facebook will pass 1 billion users.' in 2011 —Chris O'Brien ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.

We will have <=7 inches of snow in a flat part of the garden tomorrow. ( 80% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2010-12-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-27.

50-100 US municipal debt defaults by 2012. —Meredith Whitney ( 30% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-23; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-03.

'I think it is probable that we could get a connectome of the human brain within 4 to 7 years.' —Mike ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2017-01-06; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-06.

'high-end gaming PCs will still have dedicated GPU chips somewhere in them in 2020, and that those chips will cost at least $200 for top-of-the-range and at least $100 for mid range' —Roko ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.

“Everything goes very multi-core, even your cell phone.” by 2020 —Shane Legg ( 96% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-07.

'Computers will become about 50x faster' by 2020 —Shane Legg ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-08-16.

'The graphics card market collapses due to them overshooting consumer demand* and possibly being subsumed by new CPUs.' by 2020 —Shane Legg ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.

India's GDP in PPP will be roughly half that of the EU or USA in 2020. —Shane Legg ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-30.

'Chinese GDP on a PPP basis will be roughly comparable to that of the US and the EU (i.e. within 25%)' in 2020 —Shane Legg ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

I think that I'll have some predictions into predictionbook by the end of this week ( 90% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by bretcav on 2010-12-05; known on 2010-12-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-10.

Julian Assange will not be convicted in Sweden of charges related to August 2010 ( 73% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-03; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.

Bret's spreadsheet issue is screen resolution related. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Matt on 2010-12-01; known on 2010-12-02; judged right by bretcav on 2010-12-05.

“[In 2036, most] Companies that are currently large, debt-laden, listed on an exchange… and paying bonuses will be gone.” – Nassim Taleb (I interpret this less literally to large cap companies as usually structured now, 2010, based on context – NS) ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2010-11-28; known on 2037-01-01.

“[In 2036] The great top-down nation-state will be only cosmetically alive… The pre-modernist robust model of city-states… will prevail” — Nassim Taleb ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2010-11-26; known on 2037-01-01.

The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030. ( 16% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by PatrickAchtelik on 2010-11-24; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by muflax on 2010-12-12.

A large-scale persistant Alternate Reality game is created which sets a “cyberspace grafitti” sort of layer on top of reality; sells poorly, but trudges on with a cult following. ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by kallman on 2010-11-22; known on 2030-01-01.

The fad for 3d will turn out to be just that, a fad, and not vanish, but not really go anywhere either. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by kallman on 2010-11-20; known on 2015-06-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-28.

The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade ( 67% confidence; 22 wagers; 17 comments )

Created by kallman on 2010-11-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2021-09-10.

60% or more of the population of any one country will use public transit more frequently than driving by 2025 ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by kallman on 2010-11-20; known on 2025-12-31.

Implanted RFIDs and similar cybernetics will be mainstream (popular?) by 2030 ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by kallman on 2010-11-20; known on 2030-01-01.

Water reserves in Victoria, Australia will be back up to 100% by 2013 ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by raavin on 2010-11-18; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by EvanB on 2014-01-18.

Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022 ( 6% confidence; 20 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by raavin on 2010-11-18; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-12-31.

Apple will release their desktop OS as software only before 2015 ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by raavin on 2010-11-18; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by btrettel on 2015-06-11.

“Friends of the Earth (US) will no longer be fighting against nuclear power by December 2015.” —Stewart Brand ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-17; known on 2015-12-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-01.

Over the next year or two, Apple will bring Cocoa development to the Windows desktop via an App Store that sells titles to a broad audience — Daniel Eran Dilger http://bit.ly/aXTPXK ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by TheScholar on 2010-11-15; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.

'more than half of Baby Boomers will live healthy lives beyond 100' —Ron Klatz ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-14; known on 2049-01-01.

I will finish my Evangelion research and write my essay/book on it by 2020. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-13; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.

Most human workers spend the majority of their time acquiring new skills and knowledge by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 2% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

Most learning is accomplished through intelligent, adaptive courseware presented by computer-simulated teachers. In the learning process, human adults fill the counselor and mentor roles instead of being academic instructors. —Ray Kurzweil ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

Computers have made paper books and documents almost completely obsolete by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 16% confidence; 17 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

Massively parallel neural nets and genetic algorithms are in wide use by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 95% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-02-09.

Three-dimensional nanotube lattices are the dominant computing substrate by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.

North Korea will attack G20 summit with chemical or biological weapons ( 0% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2010-11-14; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-11-14.

Wireless electricity is ubiquitous in 2026 ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-11; known on 2027-01-01.

The United States of Africa is established by 2026 ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-11; known on 2027-01-01.

Construction of the Sagrada Família is complete in 2026 ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-11; known on 2027-01-01.

Contact with the Voyager probes is lost by 2026 ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-11; known on 2027-01-01.

“I would put the odds of an independent [Bloomberg] candidacy for President in 2012 or 2016 at probably sixty to seventy per cent” —Joe Trippi ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-09; known on 2016-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-06-01.

Jeb Bush will announce a candidacy for president in 2016 ( 30% confidence; 11 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-09; known on 2016-06-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-08.

Jeb Bush will announce a candidacy for president in 2012 ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-09; known on 2012-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-06-01.

“Within 50 years it will be the dominant paradigm within particle physics that all leptons and quarks are each composed of three pairs of two opposite types of black hole and that a pair of these black holes, when merged, form the underlying units from wh ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-08; known on 2060-11-07.

“China's current regime will be overthrown or reformed (another political Party come into power) before 2020” ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.

By 2050 most computer hardware will no longer be binary. ( 18% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by TheScholar on 2010-10-31; known on 2050-01-01.

In about a year this website will have more then 20 active participants per week. ( 27% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by TheScholar on 2010-10-31; known on 2011-10-31; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-02.

Mass casaulties (>3000) from bioterrorism by 2030 ( 51% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-30; known on 2031-01-01.

'China's economy continues to boom' in 2025 ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-29; known on 2026-01-01.

'Vertical farms are appearing in many cities' by 2025 ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-29; known on 2026-01-01; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-09.

'Africa and the Middle East are linked by a transcontinental bridge' by 2025 ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-29; known on 2026-01-01.

'Experiments at a university have yielded the first 10 year old mice' by 2025 ( 44% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-29; known on 2026-01-01.

The New York Jets will win the Superbowl in 2011. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by pdaveybean on 2010-10-29; known on 2011-02-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-02-07.

Rotating computer hard drives are no longer used. —Ray Kurzweil ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

Cables connecting computers and peripherals have almost completely disappeared. —Ray Kurzweil ( 29% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

Most people own more than one P.C., though the concept of what a “computer” is has changed considerably: Computers are no longer limited in design to laptops or CPUs contained in a large box connected to a monitor. Instead, devices with computer capabilit ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.

Most business transactions or information inquiries involve dealing with a simulated person. —Ray Kurzweil ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.

People communicate with their computers via two-way speech and gestures instead of with keyboards. Furthermore, most of this interaction occurs through computerized assistants with different personalities that the user can select or customize. —Ray Kurz ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.

These special glasses and contact lenses can deliver “augmented reality” and “virtual reality” in three different ways. First, they can project “heads-up-displays” (HUDs) across the user's field of vision, superimposing images that stay in place in the en ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.

People experience 3-D virtual reality through glasses and contact lenses that beam images directly to their retinas (retinal display). Coupled with an auditory source (headphones), users can remotely communicate with other people and access the Internet. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-14.

Computers are embedded everywhere in the environment (inside of furniture, jewelry, walls, clothing, etc.). —Ray Kurzweil ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2020-01-02.

The summed computational powers of all computers is comparable to the total brainpower of the human race. —Ray Kurzweil ( 55% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.

Three-dimensional nanotube lattices are the dominant computing substrate. —Ray Kurzweil ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

A $1,000 personal computer has as much raw power as the human brain. —Ray Kurzweil ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03.

'African elephants are on the brink of extinction' in 2024 ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known in 9 days.

Petabyte storage devices are available in 2024 ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known in 9 days.

Solar Probe Plus flies into Sun's corona in 2024 ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known in 9 days.

'2095 The development of a “Space Drive” – a propulsion system reacting against the structure of space-time – makes the rocket obsolete and permits velocities close to that of light. Human explorers set off to nearby star systems.' ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2096-01-01.

'2090 Burning of fossil fuels is resumed to replace carbon dioxide “mined” from the air and to try to postpone the next Ice Age by promoting global warming.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2091-01-01.

“2061 Halley's Comet returns – first landing by humans, And the sensational discovery of both dormant and active life forms vindicates Wickramasinghe and Hoyle's century-old hypothesis that life exists through space.” —Arthur C. Clarke ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2062-01-01.

'2057 On October 4, the centenary of Sputnik 1, the dawn of the space age is celebrated by humans on Earth, the Moon, Mars, Europa, Ganymede and Titan, and in orbit around Venus, Neptune and Pluto.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2058-01-01.

'2050 Bored in this era, millions decide to use cryonic suspension to emigrate into the future in search of adventure.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2051-01-01.

'2045 The totally self-contained mobile home (envisaged almost a century ago by Buckminster Fuller) is perfected. Any additional carbon needed from food synthesis is obtained by extracting carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2046-01-01.

'2040 The “Universal Replicator,” based on nanotechnology, is perfected: any object, however complex, can be created – given the necessary raw materials. Diamonds or gourmet meals can, literally, be made from dirt.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2041-01-01.

'2025 Neurological research finally leads to an understanding of all the senses, and direct input becomes possible, bypassing ears, eyes, skin, etc. The result is the metal “Braincap.” Anyone wearing this close-fitting helmet can enter a whole universe of ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2026-01-01.

'2024 Infrared signals are detected coming from the centre of the Galaxy, obviously the product of a technologically advanced civilisation. All attempts to decipher them fail.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known in 9 days.

'2023 Dinosaur facsimiles are cloned from computer-generated DNA.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )