Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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HPMoR lidz 2013. gada 1. martam netiks turpinats ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by zaarcis on 2012-12-10; known on 2013-03-01; judged wrong by Arets Paeglis on 2012-12-20.
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P = NP problema lidz 2018. gada 1. janvarim netiks atrisinata. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by zaarcis on 2012-12-10; known on 2018-01-01.
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Turkey / NATO war with Syria. ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by khorporative on 2012-12-10; known on 2013-02-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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Opportunity rover to function until June, 1 2013 ( 75% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-09; known on 2013-06-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-06-01.
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NFL: Dallas Cowboys will beat the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 14 of the 2012 Season ( 55% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-09; known on 2012-12-12; judged right by RandomNFL on 2012-12-10.
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NFL: Jacksonville Jaguars will beat the NY Jets in Week 14 of the 2012 Season ( 55% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-09; known on 2012-12-12; judged wrong by RandomNFL on 2012-12-10.
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NFL: St. Louis Rams will beat the Buffalo Bills in Week 14 of the 2012 Season ( 55% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-09; known on 2012-12-12; judged right by RandomNFL on 2012-12-10.
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NFL: Baltimore Ravens will beat the Washington Redskins in Week 14 of the 2012 Season ( 55% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-09; known on 2012-12-12; judged wrong by RandomNFL on 2012-12-10.
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NFL: New England Patriots will beat Texas Texans in Week 14 of the 2012 Season ( 65% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-09; known on 2012-12-12; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-11.
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NFL: Chicago Bears will beat the Minnesota Vikings in Week 14 of the 2012 Season ( 65% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-09; known on 2012-12-12; judged wrong by RandomNFL on 2012-12-10.
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NFL: NY Giants will beat the New Orleans Saints in Week 14 of the 2012 Season ( 55% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-09; known on 2012-12-12; judged right by RandomNFL on 2012-12-10.
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NFL: Atlanta Falcons will beat the Carolina Panthers in Week 14 of the 2012 Season ( 55% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-09; known on 2012-12-12; judged wrong by RandomNFL on 2012-12-10.
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NFL: Indianapolis Colts will beat the Tennessee Titans in Week 14 of the 2012 Season ( 75% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-09; known on 2012-12-12; judged right by RandomNFL on 2012-12-10.
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NFL: Cleveland Browns will beat the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 14 of the 2012 Season ( 75% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-09; known on 2012-12-12; judged right by RandomNFL on 2012-12-10.
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NFL: Green Bay Packers will beat the Detroit Lions in Week 14 of the 2012 Season ( 75% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-09; known on 2012-12-12; judged right by RandomNFL on 2012-12-10.
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NFL: Pittsburgh Steelers will beat the San Diego Chargers in Week 14 of the 2012 Season ( 75% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-09; known on 2012-12-12; judged wrong by RandomNFL on 2012-12-10.
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NFL: SF 49ers will beat the Miami Dolphins in Week 14 of the 2012 Season ( 85% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-09; known on 2012-12-12; judged right by RandomNFL on 2012-12-10.
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NFL: Seattle Seahawks will beat the Arizona Cardinals in Week 14 of the 2012 Season ( 75% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-09; known on 2012-12-12; judged right by RandomNFL on 2012-12-10.
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NFL: Tampa Bay Bucs will beat the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 14 of the 2012 Season ( 75% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-09; known on 2012-12-12; judged wrong by RandomNFL on 2012-12-10.
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One important result in whole brain emulation ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by tsathoggua on 2012-12-09; known on 2013-04-01; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2013-04-01.
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The top 3 most watched YouTube videos will stay the same till February 1st. ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by cyblifeformnode on 2012-12-09; known on 2013-02-01; judged right by Sarokrae on 2013-04-04.
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Standard & Poor's Ratings Services will change the unsolicited long-term sovereign credit rating on the Republic of France (from 'AA+') or on the Federal Republic of Germany (from 'AAA') till February 1st. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by cyblifeformnode on 2012-12-09; known on 2013-02-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2014-07-09.
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There will not be made any announcement by NASA of significant discovery on Mars by rover Curiosity until the end of 2012. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by cyblifeformnode on 2012-12-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-02-16.
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The Euro won’t be the official currency in Greece at the end of 2015 ( 4% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ChristianKl on 2012-12-06; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-31.
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The Euro won't be the official currency in Greece at the end of 2013. ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ChristianKl on 2012-12-06; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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I will not donate any money to SIAI or its associated organizations during Winter 2012 ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by papermachine on 2012-12-06; known on 2013-03-20; judged right by papermachine on 2013-03-20.
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NFL: The Denver Broncos will beat the Oakland Raiders in Week 14 of the 2012 season ( 85% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-06; known on 2012-12-07; judged right by RandomNFL on 2012-12-07.
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The Winter 2012 Singularity Institute fundraiser will max out its dollar-matching quota. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by DaFranker on 2012-12-06; known on 2013-01-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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By the end of January bond and stock markets will crash. (things my dad says) ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by drethelin on 2012-12-06; known on 2013-01-30; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2013-01-30.
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The first LW Purdue meetup will happen on January 11 ( 60% confidence )
Created by papermachine on 2012-12-06; known on 2013-01-11; judged right by papermachine on 2013-01-11.
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At least one of gwern's R snippets posted to LW before December 5th, 2012 was falsified to test if any LWer actually double-checked his work. ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2012-12-05; known on 2013-01-31; judged wrong by papermachine on 2013-01-31.
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LSD microdosing experiment: pair 6: placebo then active? ( 60% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-05; known on 2012-12-06; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-05.
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>=1 Longecity users will claim my (swapped) sets of iodine eye photographs will reveal a lightening trend of my iris. ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-05; known on 2013-01-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-05.
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The sun will rise tomorrow ( 100% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by xtat on 2012-12-05; known on 2012-12-06; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2012-12-05.
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44 views will show up in YouTube analytics tomorrow to match Insight API reports. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2012-12-05; known on 2012-12-06; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2012-12-05.
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Assad will remain in power in Syria until end of 2012. ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by fiftytwo on 2012-12-04; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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I will study for final exams for >5 hours today ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cy Fleming on 2012-12-04; known on 2012-12-05; judged wrong by Cy Fleming on 2012-12-05.
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I will get in >10 minutes of walking/running today ( 95% confidence )
Created by Cy Fleming on 2012-12-04; known on 2012-12-05; judged wrong by Cy Fleming on 2012-12-05.
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Plastic lightbulbs will be for sale by the start of 2014 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-20553143 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by beo_shaffer on 2012-12-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by beo_shaffer on 2014-01-01.
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John Kerry won't be the Secretary of State but will win re-election in 2014. ( 73% confidence )
Created by alecbrooks on 2012-12-02; known on 2014-11-04; judged wrong by alecbrooks on 2013-01-29.
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The LHC will not make any new major discoveries until the end of 2012. ( 76% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Arets Paeglis on 2012-12-01; known on 2013-01-05; judged right by Qiaochu on 2013-01-05.
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Discovering the water and/or oxygen traces in some exoplanets ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by tsathoggua on 2012-12-01; known on 2013-05-16; judged right by Tuxedage on 2013-05-26.
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Curiosity discovers ancient life forms in Martioian soil ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by tsathoggua on 2012-12-01; known on 2013-05-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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The Upperthong vs Paddock game will go ahead ( 50% confidence; 7 comments )
Created by onthestairs on 2012-11-30; known on 2012-12-02; judged wrong by onthestairs on 2012-12-14.
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I will still live in Berlin at the end of 2014 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ChristianKl on 2012-11-29; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by ChristianKl on 2015-01-01.
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Over the next 20 years loop quantum gravity will dominate the efforts to reconcile Relativity with Quantum Mechanics. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-29; known on 2032-01-01.
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Bitcoin will be exchanged at a rate higher than $20/BTC at the end of 2013. ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by ChristianKl on 2012-11-29; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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My LessWrong karma will be over 2000 at the end of 2013 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ChristianKl on 2012-11-29; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.
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My LessWrong karma will be over 1000 at the end of 2013 ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ChristianKl on 2012-11-29; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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I will weight less than 54 kg on 2012-12-31 ( 30% confidence )
Created by ChristianKl on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by ChristianKl on 2013-01-07.
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I will weight more than 58 kg on 2012-12-31 ( 15% confidence )
Created by ChristianKl on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by ChristianKl on 2013-01-07.
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I will weight more than 57 kg on 2012-12-31 ( 35% confidence )
Created by ChristianKl on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by ChristianKl on 2013-01-07.
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I will weight more than 60 kg at the end of 2013. ( 60% confidence )
Created by ChristianKl on 2012-11-29; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by ChristianKl on 2014-01-04.
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I will still live in Berlin at the end of 2013 ( 85% confidence )
Created by ChristianKl on 2012-11-29; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by ChristianKl on 2014-01-04.
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I won’t try the Everyman sleep shedule in 2013. ( 70% confidence )
Created by ChristianKl on 2012-11-29; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by ChristianKl on 2014-01-04.
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I won’t try uberman sleep in 2013. ( 90% confidence )
Created by ChristianKl on 2012-11-29; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by ChristianKl on 2014-01-04.
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NFL: Cleveland Browns will beat the Oakland Raiders in Week 13 of the 2012 season ( 65% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-06; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-03.
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NFL: Cincinnati Bengals will beat the San Diego Chargers in Week 13 of the 2012 season ( 55% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-06; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-03.
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NFL: NY Jets will beat the Arizona Cardinals in Week 13 of the 2012 season ( 55% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-06; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-03.
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NFL: NY Giants will beat the Washington Redskins in Week 13 of the 2012 season ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-06; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-12-04.
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NFL: Buffalo Bills will beat the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 13 of the 2012 season ( 65% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-06; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-03.
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NFL: Baltimore Ravens will beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 13 of the 2012 season ( 65% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-06; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-12-03.
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NFL: Detroit Lions will beat the Indianapolis Colts in Week 13 of the 2012 season ( 65% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-06; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-12-03.
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NFL: Carolina Panthers will beat the KC Chiefs in Week 13 of the 2012 season ( 75% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-06; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-12-03.
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NFL: New England Patriots will beat the Miami Dolphins in Week 13 of the 2012 season ( 75% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-06; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-03.
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NFL: GB Packers will beat the Minnesota Vikings in Week 13 of the 2012 season ( 75% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-06; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-03.
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NFL: Dallas Cowboys will beat the Philly Eagles in Week 13 of the 2012 season ( 85% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-06; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-03.
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NFL: Houston Texans will beat the Tennessee Titans in Week 13 of the 2012 season ( 85% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-06; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-03.
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NFL: Denver Broncos will beat the Tampa Bay Bucs in Week 13 of the 2012 season ( 85% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-06; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-03.
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NFL: Chicago Bears will beat the Seattle Seahawks in Week 13 of the 2012 season ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-05; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-12-03.
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NFL: SF 49ers will beat the St. Louis Rams in Week 13 of the 2012 season ( 75% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-05; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-12-03.
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NFL: Atlanta Falcons will beat the New Orleans Saints in Week 13 of the 2012 Season ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-30.
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Within 50 years, excavations on Flores Island will show that Homo floresiensis survived into historical times. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-28; known on 2063-01-01.
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Intrade (or a similar real money prediction market) will be legal in the US by 2026 ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-28; known on 2026-01-01.
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I will NOT win the power ball lotto ( 99% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rbhamilton@gmail.com on 2012-11-28; known on 2012-11-29; judged right by rbhamilton@gmail.com on 2012-11-29.
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We will go over the fiscal cliff in some fashion but it wont be as bad as people say. ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by rbhamilton@gmail.com on 2012-11-28; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-03-05.
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mortgage rates in Canada won't rise above 5% for a 1 year term within the next year. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kjaques on 2012-11-27; known on 2013-11-27; judged right by kjaques on 2013-11-27.
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NFL: Harbaugh will name Alex Smith as his starter for the 49ers this week ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-27; known on 2012-12-02; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-29.
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The Bush tax cuts will be extended for under-100k single earners before they expire. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by banx on 2012-11-27; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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Connie Srinivasan will visit Louisiana in 2013. If she does, I get $60. If not, I give her $10. ( 17% confidence )
Created by GuySrinivasan on 2012-11-26; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by GuySrinivasan on 2014-01-01.
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GB/$ of Flash/SSD=hard-drives in or by 2016 —William Hertling ( 33% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-11-26; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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LSD microdosing experiment: pair 5: placebo then active? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-11-26; known on 2012-11-27; judged right by gwern on 2012-11-26.
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Martian “dark sand cascades” are found to be evidence of microbial activity. ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-25; known on 2062-01-01.
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“I estimate there is a 79.4357 percent probability that Susan Rice will be confirmed early next year as secretary of State, and the vote won’t even be close.” —John Heilemann, NY Magazine ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-25; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-02-24.
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Gangnam Style to reach 1,000,000,000 views by December 1st 2012. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bZkp7q19f0 ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-11-25; known on 2012-12-01; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-12-01.
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Gangnam Style to reach 1,000,000,000 views by December 11th 2012. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bZkp7q19f0 ( 33% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-11-25; known on 2012-12-11; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-12-11.
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Gangnam Style to reach 1,000,000,000 views by December 21st 2012. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bZkp7q19f0 ( 53% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-11-25; known on 2012-12-21; judged right by army1987 on 2012-12-21.
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Gangnam Style to reach 1,000,000,000 views by December 31st 2012. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bZkp7q19f0 ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-11-25; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by army1987 on 2012-12-21.
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War won't happen between China and Usa before June 2030 ( 66% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by randomlurker13 on 2012-11-25; known on 2030-06-01.
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Jesus returns to planet earth before the end of 2012. ( 0% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Torquil on 2012-11-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Flipnash on 2013-08-17.
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Apple will hit 450 by February 2013. ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by andrevan on 2012-11-24; known on 2013-02-15; judged right by andrevan on 2013-02-15.
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By 2020, [nearly] all hybrids will be plug-ins. —Alyssa Vance ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-11-24; known on 2023-01-01.
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By 2022, some roads will be self-driving-only. —Alyssa Vance ( 51% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-11-24; known on 2023-01-01.
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By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. — Alyssa Vance ( 41% confidence; 14 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-11-24; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-01-08.
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NFL: Indianapolis Colts will beat Buffalo Bills in Week 12 of the 2012 Season ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-22; known on 2012-11-28; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-26.
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NFL: Green Bay Packers will beat NY Giants in Week 12 of the 2012 Season ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-22; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-26.
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NFL: Carolina Panthers will beat Philadelphia Eagles in Week 12 of the 2012 Season ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-22; known on 2012-11-28; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-27.
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NFL: Arizona Cardinals will beat St Louis Rams in Week 12 of the 2012 Season ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-22; known on 2012-11-28; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-26.
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NFL: SF 49ers will beat New Orleans in Week 12 of the 2012 Season ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-22; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-26.
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NFL: Jacksonville Jaguars will beat Tennessee Titans in Week 12 of the 2012 Season ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-22; known on 2012-11-28; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-26.