HP MoR: chapter 100 will, after 7 days, have 66-383 reviews posted on FF.net ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-11-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-14.

HP MoR: chapter 100 will, after 1 month, have 215-792 reviews posted on FF.net ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-11-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-14.

My application for Y Combinator will be good enough to get me an interview. ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by ggreer on 2012-11-03; known on 2013-11-16; judged wrong by ggreer on 2012-11-16.

DNB/nicotine day 36: active? ( 55% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-11-03; known on 2012-11-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-11-03.

Gene Munster: Apple will sell 1-1.5 million iPad Minis this weekend (compared with 3 million 3rd Gen iPads sold in its launch weekend in March). ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-02; known on 2012-11-30; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-12.

Reed Hastings will not be CEO of Netflix by 2015 ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-01; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2015-01-11.

Summly, news summary app created by 16 yr old, will be a flop (as judged in Jan 2015) ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-01; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-03-25.

I will watch Dexter 7×06 before 2013 ( 1% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-11-01; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.

I will finish mixing my song in 3 days ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by SorcererofDM on 2012-10-31; known on 2012-11-03; judged wrong by SorcererofDM on 2012-11-03.

Cure for baldness discovered by 2014 — The Telegraph. ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-31; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Pablo on 2015-01-01.

In at least one state Obama wins in 2012, Gary Johnson will win a number of votes greater than the margin by which Obama defeats Romney in that state. ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-30; known on 2012-12-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-27.

Marijuana legalization will be a significant issue in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. ( 33% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-30; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.

Rossi's energy black box actually harnesses a third type of nuclear reaction ( 4% confidence; 10 wagers; 15 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-30; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.

Romney will win Iowa ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-12-08; judged wrong by smijer on 2012-11-07.

Romney will win Florida ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-11-08; judged wrong by smijer on 2012-11-07.

In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ( 14% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-29; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-29.

Within 6 months, a nationally-known Democratic strategist, pundit, or politician will claim that Obama's performance in the first 2012 debate was a clever strategy to lower expectations. ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-28; known on 2013-05-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.

Regardless of who wins the election, there'll be a major “debt deal” before mid 2013 ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-28; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-06-09.

Conditional on a reply and clear answer, Charles Parlapanides will claim Parlapanides' authorship. ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-10-28; known on 2012-11-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-11-28.

Charles Parlapanides will reply to my message on Twitter within 1 month and will clearly confirm or deny authorship. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-10-28; known on 2012-11-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-11-28.

LSD microdosing experiment: pair 2: placebo then active? ( 55% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-10-26; known on 2012-10-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-26.

Mitt Romney will win the popular vote in the 2012 US election ( 37% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-26; known on 2012-11-10; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-08.

DNB/nicotine day 32: active? ( 45% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-10-25; known on 2012-10-25; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-25.

Lorne will not clean the bathroom during October ( 90% confidence )

Created by SaramMueller on 2012-10-24; known on 2012-11-01; judged wrong by SaramMueller on 2012-11-01.

Assuming Obama wins second term, Bernanke will continue as Fed chairman ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-24; known on 2014-02-15; judged wrong by dk on 2014-03-23.

Assuming Obama wins second term, repubs will try to impeach him sometime during the his second term ( 11% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-24; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.

Self-driving cars will be available for sale or lease in most US states within ten years (2022). ( 41% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Aticper on 2012-10-24; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by mad on 2023-01-17.

Within five years (2017), motion-controlled augmented reality headsets will be widespread in the consumer market, selling millions of units and beginning to overtake multitouch screens as the primary mode of mobile computer interaction. ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Aticper on 2012-10-24; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.

By the end of 2014, the market for virtual reality headsets will exceed a million units. ( 23% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Aticper on 2012-10-24; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.

I will start to learn Korean before 2015 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-10-23; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2015-01-23.

DNB/nicotine day 31: active? ( 55% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-10-23; known on 2012-10-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-23.

There will be 2 or more Gangnam style touchdown celebrations in the NFL next week (10/25 to 10/29) ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-22; known on 2012-10-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-10-30.

There are at least 4 false things reported as “rumors” in this ValueWalk article about the iPad Mini, starting with the $329 price ( 65% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-22; known on 2012-10-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-10-23.

DNB/nicotine day 30: active? ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-10-22; known on 2012-10-22; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-22.

Time team 7.1 will be repeated on Discovery History Later today ( 80% confidence )

Created by Purplerabbits on 2012-10-21; known on 2012-10-21; judged wrong by Purplerabbits on 2012-10-21.

Nick Corrado will pass ENG 111. ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Catmando on 2012-10-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Catmando on 2013-01-05.

The SWP will split with 5-15 members joining the ULA. The SWP will decide to remain in the ULA for at least one year after the event. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jacobian on 2012-10-21; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by jacobian on 2014-01-01.

Microsoft will release an official “Start menu” app for Windows 8 by June 2013 ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by bknakker on 2012-10-18; known on 2013-06-16; judged wrong by hedges on 2013-06-16.

I will win the HATCH competition this year. ( 65% confidence )

Created by huggins on 2012-10-18; known on 2013-04-16; judged wrong by huggins on 2013-04-16.

Housemate one-boxes ( 60% confidence )

Created by Jach on 2012-10-17; known on 2012-10-17; judged wrong by Jach on 2012-10-17.

DNB/nicotine day 28: active? ( 55% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-10-17; known on 2012-10-17; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-17.

Will google's new javascript replacemant, “Dart”, have significant use in the next 3 years ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by drpowell on 2012-10-16; known on 2015-10-16; judged wrong by drpowell on 2015-10-23.

By the end of 2013, I will have made at least 500 predictions on PB.com. ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by chemotaxis101 on 2012-10-15; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2014-01-03.

The current world record for the highest exit altitude for a freefall (unofficially set on October 14, 2012: 39,045 m / 128,100 ft) will not be broken until 2020. ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by chemotaxis101 on 2012-10-15; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2021-01-01.

“Google's self-driving cars will be available [for purchase at a reasonable price to buy and drive legally] for everyone [the same market that can currently afford to buy a car] within five years” – Sergey Brin ( 16% confidence; 32 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by Qiaochu on 2012-10-14; known on 2017-09-26; judged wrong by Tanner on 2017-09-26.

I will post a formal version of my primary argument for simulation-theism on Less Wrong before 2014. ( 30% confidence; 38 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-10-14; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-16.

DNB/nicotine day 27: active? ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-10-14; known on 2012-10-14; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-14.

A paper written or co-written by me is accepted for publication in the journal “Information Sciences” by 2013. ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by chemotaxis101 on 2012-10-13; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2014-01-03.

DNB/nicotine day 26: active? ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-10-13; known on 2012-10-13; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-13.

By 2020, it'll be common for some jobs to require your Klout score (or something similar) as part of the hiring criteria. ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-14.

I will complete Remembering the Kanji 1 before 2014. ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 13 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-10-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-16.

Fed: unemployment won't reach 7.5% until 2014 ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-05-03.

DNB/nicotine day 24: active? ( 60% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-10-09; known on 2012-10-09; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-09.