PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

John Cena will defeat The Rock at WrestleMania 29, becoming the WWE Champion. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-29; known on 2013-04-07; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-04-08.

Yvain will mention the hand gesture the awkward turtle in http://squid314.livejournal.com/ within the next 7 days ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by beo_shaffer on 2013-01-28; known on 2013-02-04; judged wrong by beo_shaffer on 2013-02-04.

Mandatory paternity testing in some states of the USA by 2020. ( 33% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by tomokaicho on 2013-01-28; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-02-10.

Neither US nor Russian governments will make announcements claiming the existence of sentient aliens this year. http://www.eutimes.net/2013/01/russia-orders-obama-tell-world-about-aliens-or-we-will/ ( 98% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-01-27; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-12-31.

Technoviking will lose the lawsuit about usage of his image ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by dhoe on 2013-01-27; known on 2014-02-01; judged wrong by dhoe on 2014-02-01.

My Probability & Stats raw percentage will be strictly over 89.5% ( 69% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2013-01-27; known on 2013-04-01; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2013-02-19.

My Analysis raw mark will be between 34 and 44 marks out of 50 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2013-01-27; known on 2013-04-01; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2013-02-19.

My algebra lecturer will Facebook or Tweet or mention to me the psychoanalysis pun on my exam script. ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2013-01-27; known on 2013-04-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2013-02-19.

Obama will come to be ranked, on average, by presidential historians within two places of 17th best president. (ref: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/01/23/contemplating-obamas-place-in-history-statistically/) ( 38% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-01-26; known on 2113-01-01.

My friend and chapter brother, A. U., will not have a little by the end of the Spring 2014 semester (his estimated time of graduation) ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-25; known on 2014-05-12; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-18.

My friend and chapter brother, A. U., will not have a little by the end of this Spring 2013 semester. ( 98% confidence )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-25; known on 2013-05-01; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-18.

LSD microdosing experiment: pair 13: placebo then active? ( 60% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2013-01-25; known on 2013-01-26; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-25.

Apple share price to stay below $700 during 2013. ( 59% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by simplicio on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by dhoe on 2014-01-01.

North Korea to conduct a nuclear test in 2013. ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by simplicio on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-02-12.

Activision or EA will announce they have obtained the Homeworld 3 IP by Feb 1 2014. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by DaFranker on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-02-01; judged wrong by DaFranker on 2014-02-01.

Israeli Elections: The new government’s coalition will include Shas. ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by ygert on 2013-01-24; known on 2013-03-20; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-03-20.

Israeli Elections: The new government’s coalition will include HaBayit HaYehudi. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by ygert on 2013-01-24; known on 2013-03-20; judged right by ygert on 2013-03-20.

Israeli Elections: The new government’s coalition will include Labor. ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by ygert on 2013-01-24; known on 2013-03-20; judged right by ygert on 2013-03-20.

Israeli Elections: The new government's coalition will include Yesh Atid. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by ygert on 2013-01-24; known on 2013-03-20; judged right by ygert on 2013-03-20.

Israeli election: The new government's coalition will include Likud/Yisrael Beiteinu. ( 82% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ygert on 2013-01-24; known on 2013-03-20; judged right by ygert on 2013-03-20.

A digital 4K video camera will be available for under US$4000 by the end of 2013. ( 80% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by dusk on 2013-01-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by dusk on 2020-12-25.

Windows Phone 7.8 will roll out over-the-air to some consumer devices by the end of February 2013. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by dusk on 2013-01-24; known on 2013-03-01; judged right by dusk on 2013-01-31.

Microsoft will start selling Windows 9 by the end of 2014. ( 19% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by dusk on 2013-01-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.

Steve Ballmer will be the CEO of Microsoft at the end of 2014 ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by dusk on 2013-01-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.

Steve Ballmer will be the CEO of Microsoft at the end of 2013 ( 81% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by dusk on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by dusk on 2014-01-01.

Mencius Moldbug: Bitcoin <10 cents by end of 2013. ( 7% confidence; 26 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.

John Green will not publish a book in 2013. (Novellas written for charity don't count.) ( 90% confidence )

Created by alecbrooks on 2013-01-23; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by alecbrooks on 2014-01-01.

The US Supreme Court will find it has jurisdiction in Hollingsworth v. Perry (the Prop 8 case) ( 55% confidence )

Created by Pfft on 2013-01-22; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by Pfft on 2013-06-26.

The US Supreme Court will find it has jurisdiction in United States vs Windsor (the DOMA case). ( 80% confidence )

Created by Pfft on 2013-01-22; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by Pfft on 2013-06-26.

Binyamin Netanyahu's coalition to win Jan 22 Israeli general election. ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by simplicio on 2013-01-21; known on 2013-01-23; judged right by simplicio on 2013-01-23.

Elizabeth Colbert-Busch wins SC House Seat. ( 60% confidence )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-01-20; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by NathanMcKnight on 2013-05-16.

Due to bright light and dark-red light cycling, tomorrow I will wake up like I did today: naturally and without sleeping in. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-01-19; known on 2013-01-20; judged wrong by ashrewdmint on 2013-01-20.

Sarah's 23andme results will show that she is 90th percentile Neanderthal or higher ( 60% confidence )

Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-01-19; known on 2013-03-19; judged wrong by ashrewdmint on 2013-01-30.

Sarah's 23andme results will show she is 70th percentile Neanderthal or higher ( 70% confidence )

Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-01-19; known on 2013-03-19; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2013-01-30.

Jon Snow alive at beginning of The Winds of Winter ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Leo on 2013-01-19; known in 6 days.

Sub-saharan Africa's HDI to be 0.472 or higher in 2014 (0.463 in 2011). (Source: http://hdrstats.undp.org/en/tables/) ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by simplicio on 2013-01-18; known on 2015-12-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-07-17.

World HDI for 2014 to be 0.690 or higher (0.682 in 2011). ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by simplicio on 2013-01-18; known on 2015-12-01; judged right by btrettel on 2015-07-04.

Japan to obtain >30% of its power from nuclear in 2016. ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by simplicio on 2013-01-18; known on 2017-02-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-11-26.

Conditional on Germany proceeding with nuclear phaseout, coal will account for a larger share of generation (in TWh/yr terms) in 2015 than it did in 2012. ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by simplicio on 2013-01-18; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by alecbrooks on 2016-08-13.

I will sleep better tonight after bright light exposure during the day ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-01-18; known on 2013-01-19; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2013-01-19.

Germany to cancel phase-out of nuclear power by 2022. ( 22% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by simplicio on 2013-01-18; known on 2022-02-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-12.

EU to succeed in its target of cutting greenhouse gas levels to 20% of 1990 levels by 2020. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by simplicio on 2013-01-18; known on 2020-02-01.

Justin Trudeau to win Liberal Party of Canada leadership race. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by simplicio on 2013-01-18; known on 2013-04-14; judged right by Tuxedage on 2013-05-02.

Liberal/National Coalition to win Australian Federal Election 2013. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by simplicio on 2013-01-18; known on 2013-11-30; judged right by najdorf on 2013-12-30.

LSD microdosing experiment: pair 12: placebo then active? ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2013-01-18; known on 2013-01-19; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-18.

NL: There will be an Elfstedentocht this winter ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by dhoe on 2013-01-17; known on 2013-05-01; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-05-01.

DE: Philipp Roesler will step down as chairman of the FDP before the federal election ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by dhoe on 2013-01-17; known on 2013-10-01; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-10-01.

The United States will reach less than 5% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years. ( 48% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Cy Fleming on 2013-01-16; known on 2028-01-16; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-06-05.

The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years. ( 11% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Cy Fleming on 2013-01-16; known on 2028-01-16.

After watching a few episodes of My Little Pony, I will decide I like it and continue watching the show. ( 64% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by ygert on 2013-01-16; known on 2013-02-15; judged right by ygert on 2013-02-08.

The Opportunity rover will continue doing science (either mobile or as a fixed station) until at least May 1, 2013 ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-16; known on 2013-05-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-05-01.

By end of 2015, the 1984 Computer Fraud and Abuse Act would have been amended to remove Terms of Service violations ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-01-16; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-29.

LSD microdosing experiment: pair 11: placebo then active? ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2013-01-16; known on 2013-01-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-16.

By end of 2014, DA Carmen Ortiz will no longer be US Attorney for Massachusetts. ( 20% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-01-15; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.

The US government will not have defaulted by the end of 2013. ( 96% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-15; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.

DE: Steinbrueck will be the next Chancellor of Germany ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by dhoe on 2013-01-14; known on 2013-10-01; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-12-25.

I will win the AI Box Experiment (Playing as an AI) scheduled on Sunday. ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13; known on 2013-01-21; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-20.

By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI. ( 6% confidence; 24 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2021-01-01.

By the end of 2013, the total number of predictions on predictionbook.com will exceed 15,000. ( 80% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13; known on 2013-12-30; judged right by ygert on 2013-12-31.

Economic and social collapse in the United States will progress to a point that Barack Obama will use emergency powers in order to not cede the office of the President at the end of his second term, perhaps even cancelling elections in 2016. ie Empire ( 3% confidence; 32 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by thephilosiraptor on 2013-01-13; known on 2017-01-20; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-20.

Before 2015, it will be found (by a legal or governmental authority of the USA) that Aaron Swartz's death was not suicide. ( 3% confidence; 20 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by ygert on 2013-01-13; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028 ( 8% confidence; 18 wagers; 14 comments )

Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-12; known on 2028-12-31.

Coin lands heads. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2013-01-12; known on 2013-01-12; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2013-01-12.

Lauren McNamara will be dropped as a witness for the defense in the trial against Bradley Manning. ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by alecbrooks on 2013-01-11; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by alecbrooks on 2013-07-09.

The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be <50 years old at his inauguration. ( 22% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2013-01-11; known on 2032-11-10.

The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be 50-60 years old at his inauguration. ( 44% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2013-01-11; known on 2032-11-10.

The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be >60 years old at his inauguration. ( 40% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-01-11; known on 2032-11-10.

My 23andme results will reveal I am 70th percentile Neanderthal or higher ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-01-11; known on 2013-03-11; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2013-01-24.

My 23andme results will reveal I am 90th percentile Neanderthal or higher ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-01-11; known on 2013-03-11; judged wrong by ashrewdmint on 2013-01-24.

San Diego State University will finish cataloging the Edward Gorey Collection by 2016. http://goo.gl/W7YUh <— 5k of 25k catalogued. ( 8% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by roxton on 2013-01-11; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-01.

By 2030, archeological forensics will discover or identify an artifact with encoded (accidentally or otherwise) audio older than the phonautograms created by 19th century phonautographs. ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by roxton on 2013-01-11; known on 2030-01-01.

Google will be selling flying cars by December 2016 ( 3% confidence; 25 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-01-10; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by neilscott on 2016-11-26.

Barack Obama will be assassinated in 2013 ( 1% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-01-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.

Steven Spielberg will win the Oscar for Best Director. ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-10; known on 2013-02-24; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-25.

Anne Hathaway will win the Oscar for Best Supporting Actress. ( 55% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-10; known on 2013-02-24; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-25.

Lincoln will win the Oscar for Best Picture. ( 45% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-10; known on 2013-02-24; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-02-25.

The Willy Brandt Airport Berlin will open before the end of 2014 ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by dhoe on 2013-01-10; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by dhoe on 2014-12-31.

DE: The FDP will get more than 5% of the vote at the Bundestag elections '13 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by dhoe on 2013-01-09; known on 2013-10-01; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-09-24.

Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable “in ten thousand years, or so” ( 19% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by sdr on 2013-01-09; known on 9999-01-01.

Facebook will release a phone at their recently announced CES event. ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Danny_Hintze on 2013-01-08; known on 2013-01-15; judged wrong by Danny_Hintze on 2013-01-16.

By the end of 2013, the government will have never minted a trillion dollar coin. ( 94% confidence; 27 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.

It will snow (enough to build a snowman) at least once in January or February 2013 in Nottingham, UK. ( 80% confidence )

Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-01-08; known on 2013-03-01; judged right by DrDiaphanous on 2013-03-01.

When he wrote The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver was aware of Overcoming Bias but was not aware of Less Wrong. ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by HonoreDB on 2013-01-07; known on 2014-01-14.

Eric Schmidt will get nominated for a position in the Obama administration in the year 2013 ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-01-07; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.

Encoding done before midnight ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2013-01-07; known on 2013-01-08; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2013-01-07.

Encoding done before 11:30 ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2013-01-07; known on 2013-01-07; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2013-01-07.

Encoding done before 10:30 ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2013-01-07; known on 2013-01-07; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2013-01-07.

The Vital Study (http://www.vitalstudy.org) will find that fish oil significantly reduces mortality. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by ChristianKl on 2013-01-07; known on 2017-12-31.

The Vital Study (http://www.vitalstudy.org) will find that Vitamin D at 2000IU significantly reduces mortality. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by ChristianKl on 2013-01-07; known on 2017-12-31.

The fanfic Reunion by Rorschach's Blot will update by the begining of May. ( 75% confidence )

Created by ygert on 2013-01-06; known on 2013-05-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-04-10.

LSD microdosing experiment: pair 10: placebo then active? ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2013-01-06; known on 2013-01-07; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-06.

Gamespot: Steam Box To Make Life Difficult for Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo in 2013 ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-01-06; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by dk on 2014-06-15.

The header backgrounds on LessWrong's Main and Discussion sites will be matched within a month. ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gokfar on 2013-01-05; known on 2013-02-05; judged wrong by gokfar on 2013-02-05.

NFL: Seattle Seahawks will beat the Washington Redskins in the wildcard round of the 2012 Season ( 55% confidence )

Created by RandomNFL on 2013-01-05; known on 2013-01-09; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-01-07.

NFL: Houston Texans will beat the Cinncinati Bengals in the wildcard round of the 2012 Season ( 55% confidence )

Created by RandomNFL on 2013-01-05; known on 2013-01-09; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-01-06.

NFL: Baltimore Ravens will beat the Indianapolis Colts in the wildcard round of the 2012 Season ( 65% confidence )

Created by RandomNFL on 2013-01-05; known on 2013-01-09; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-01-06.

NFL: Green Bay Packers will beat the Minnesota Vikings in the wildcard round of the 2012 Season ( 75% confidence )

Created by RandomNFL on 2013-01-05; known on 2013-01-09; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-01-06.

“Ubuntu for phones” will have less than 5% market share by the end of 2014. ( 91% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by dhoe on 2013-01-05; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by dhoe on 2014-12-31.

Fight over debt ceiling in Spring of 2013 will cause 1 or more of the 3 major ratings agencies (S&P, Moody, Fitch) to downgrade US govt debt ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-01-03; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.

Valuewalk, Forbes: Nokia will sell its mobile business in 2013 ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-01-03; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2014-03-09.

Statistics

Recent Predictions