PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

6 or more people at party tomorrow. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2013-01-03; known on 2013-01-04; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2013-01-06.

I will have $10 000 of play money on PokerStars by the end of 2013 ($569 as of Jan 2). ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by simplicio on 2013-01-02; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by simplicio on 2013-01-27.

Homicide rate per 100,000 in Canada to be lower in 2013 than in 2012. (Deciding source: StatCan) ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by simplicio on 2013-01-02; known on 2013-03-01; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-01.

The comet Ison will not be brighter than the full moon. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by dhoe on 2013-01-02; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by dhoe on 2014-01-01.

In HPMOR, Harry will at some point accept that souls and/or an afterlife exists. ( 34% confidence; 17 wagers; 15 comments )

Created by ygert on 2013-01-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.

Gwern has dissociative identity disorder and the identity of his split personality is Yvain. ( 0% confidence; 28 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2020-01-01.

The spot price of silver will be $50/troy oz. or more at some point before December 31, 2013. ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by dakyne on 2013-01-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.

The spot price of gold will exceed $2000/troy oz. at some point before December 31, 2013. ( 36% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by dakyne on 2013-01-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.

S&P 500 at end of 2013 is 1560 or higher ( 66% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by mwengler on 2013-01-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Qiaochu on 2014-01-02.

I will achieve all 7 of my New Year's resolutions before 2014. ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-12-31.

I will complete every single exercise in Harry Gensler's Introduction to Logic: Second Edition with an error rate of 20% or less before 2014. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-12-31.

During a single 24 hour period, I will write 2,200 kanji from memory with an error rate of 10% or less before 2014. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-16.

During a single 24 hour period, I will write 48 hiragana and 48 katakana from memory with an error rate of 0% before 2014. ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-11-01.

I will take the Spanish Language CLEP exam and will achieve a score of 55 or higher before 2014. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-12-31.

I will perform 1 set of 25 standard pull-ups and 1 set of 250 bodyweight squats on the same day before 2014. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-01; known on 2014-01-02; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-12-31.

My company will double its number of clients before 2014. ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-12-31.

Bashar al-Assad will still be holding power in Syria on December 31, 2013. ( 36% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by ygert on 2013-01-01; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.

No recession will occur in the United States for the next 4 years. ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-01; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-02-13.

A political motivated terrorist attack (committed with the intent to change public policy) will occur in 2013 in the United States, causing at least 3 deaths. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-01; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.

Complete equivalent of Y2 physics at Unimelb by eoy 2013 ( 40% confidence )

Created by waveman on 2012-12-31; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-01-01.

Achieve a high level of aerobic fitness (15 mins at 165bpm, 30 at 150bpm) by end 2013. ( 60% confidence )

Created by waveman on 2012-12-31; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-01-01.

No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030. ( 63% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known on 2030-01-01.

No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025. ( 79% confidence; 13 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known in 6 days.

No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2020. ( 86% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.

No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2015. ( 95% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2015-01-01.

There will be a 3Dmovie made of the Odyssey within three years. ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by NancyLebovitz on 2012-12-29; known on 2015-12-28; judged wrong by NancyLebovitz on 2015-12-28.

Google trends will show a decline in the term “asshat” within the last two years. ( 66% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-12-29; known on 2012-12-29; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2012-12-29.

Apple's iWatch will come out before iTV ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-12-28; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2015-01-11.

I will not be able to get a girlfriend before the end of 2013. ( 73% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Tuxedage on 2012-12-28; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by Tuxedage on 2014-01-02.

My blog (http://tuxedage.wordpress.com/) will exceed 100k words in length by the end of 2013. ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Tuxedage on 2012-12-28; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.

Logos01 will no longer be at his job within 3 months (inclusive of resignations, firings, etc.) ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-12-27; known on 2013-03-27; judged right by Tuxedage on 2013-01-30.

Donna Tam, news.com: Amazon smartphone in 2013 ( 27% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-12-27; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.

We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ( 24% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by drethelin on 2012-12-23; known on 2062-12-23.

LSD microdosing experiment: pair 9: placebo then active? ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-12-23; known on 2012-12-24; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-23.

The prophecy in HPMR refers to Harry and Death, not Harry and Voldemort. ( 13% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-23; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.

At least one more GNU project maintainer publicly resigns, citing similar reasons as the gnutls and sed maintainers. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by tedks on 2012-12-23; known on 2013-01-31; judged wrong by tedks on 2013-02-01.

NFL: NY Giants will beat the Baltimore Ravens in Week 16 of 2012 Season ( 55% confidence )

Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-22; known on 2012-12-25; judged wrong by RandomNFL on 2012-12-24.

NFL: Detroit Lions will beat the Atlanta Falcons in Week 16 of the 2012 Season ( 55% confidence )

Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-22; known on 2012-12-25; judged wrong by RandomNFL on 2012-12-23.

NFL: Tampa Bay Buccaneers will beat the St. Louis Rams in Week 16 of the 2012 Season ( 55% confidence )

Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-22; known on 2012-12-25; judged wrong by RandomNFL on 2012-12-24.

NFL: Seattle Seahawks will beat the SF 49ers in Week 16 of the 2012 Season ( 60% confidence )