iPad market share in Tablets will stay above 50% through November 1 2013 (2 years after Kindle release) ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-06; known on 2013-11-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.

Chinese stock market index will be higher 1 year from now (measured by SSE, which is 2410 right now, on Mar 5, 2013) ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-06; known on 2013-03-05; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-04-23.

The week end class trip won't happen due to rain ( 29% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by wajdiatwah on 2012-03-06; known on 2012-03-09; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-13.

GJP: #1099 Before 1 April 2012, will Al-Saadi Gaddafi be extradited to Libya? ( 45% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-03-06; known on 2012-04-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.

GJP: #1101 Will Laurent Lamothe be ratified as Haiti’s Prime Minister before 1 April 2012? ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-03-06; known on 2012-04-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.

GJP: #1103 Before 1 April 2012, will the Sudan and South Sudan governments officially announce an agreement on oil transit fees? ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-03-06; known on 2012-04-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.

GJP: #1104 Will Yemeni government forces regain control of the towns of Jaar and Zinjibar from Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) before 1 April 2012? ( 30% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-03-06; known on 2012-04-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.

GJP: #1098 Will a foreign or multinational military force fire on, invade, or enter Syria between 6 March 2012 and 31 December 2012? ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-03-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

Ares/Mars will make an on-screen appearance in Assassin's Creed 3, as a member of the First Civilization. ( 10% confidence )

Created by papermachine on 2012-03-05; known on 2012-11-01; judged wrong by papermachine on 2012-11-01.

An off-planet Playboy Club is operational before 2020. ( 5% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

US obesity is going down (2012 “obesity” as measured by government health data will be lower than the percentage in 2011) ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-05; known on 2013-02-15; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.

The Syrian regime will reach EOL by december 2012. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-03-04; known on 2012-12-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-27.

Windows will have greater than 12% market share of smart phones by March 2013 (12 months from now). ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-02; known on 2013-03-01; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-03-01.

A Republican or Democratic candidate who publicly espouses Scientology will trade >=5% at any point on the Intrade market for his party's Presidential candidate nomination. ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-03-01; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-03-01.

I will continue posting on my blog until the end of this year. ( 50% confidence; 5 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-01; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.

JG will bail on this project ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-01; known on 2012-03-04; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-05.

“[O]n March 14th 2014 there will not be any Apple hardware products for sale at JB Hi-Fi stores” Ruslan Kogan ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-28; known on 2014-03-14; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2014-03-14.

Conditional on competing in figure skating in the 2014 Winter Olympics, Yuna Kim will win a gold medal ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-02-28; known on 2014-02-23; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-20.

I will have workable futures trading strategy in place. This is a replacement for another prediction where I put the wrong date in. ( 15% confidence )

Created by waveman on 2012-02-28; known on 2012-03-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2012-03-31.

Chrome will be ahead of Internet Explorer (all versions) in the StatCounter daily Global Stats for next Sunday. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by faws on 2012-02-27; known on 2012-03-05; judged wrong by faws on 2012-03-05.

http://pastebin.com/czd3pHDr Some elements of the above sentence would reappear in Ixrec's review of oretsuba. (Moogy/Kefit) ( 5% confidence )

Created by meisnewbie on 2012-02-27; known on 2013-02-27; judged wrong by meisnewbie on 2012-11-21.

I'll get a flight quote by 6pm ( 60% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-27; known on 2012-02-27; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-27.

There will be 100 or more comments on our new site within 2 months of it launching ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-27; known on 2012-10-26; judged wrong by williamycai on 2012-09-06.

I will have done more than 5000cals of exercise by the end of Friday ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-27; known on 2012-03-02; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-02.

We will have a working people tracking system in our office ( 51% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-27; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2012-12-31.

2020: Less than 50% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges. ( 20% confidence; 10 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

2020: Less than 20% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges. ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-01-02.

Hanson and Yudkowsky publish the AI FOOM debate (EDIT: in a peer-reviewed, academic journal) before 2015. ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by papermachine on 2012-02-22; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.

GJP: #1086 Will Mohamed Waheed Hussain Manik resign or otherwise vacate the office of President of Maldives before 10 April 2012? ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2012-04-11; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-11.

GJP: #1090 Before 13 April 2012, will the Turkish government officially announce that the Turkish ambassador to France has been recalled? ( 30% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2012-04-14; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-14.

GJP: #1087 Will Amr Moussa win the next Egyptian presidential election? ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2012-06-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.

GJP: #1089 Will Iran successfully detonate a nuclear device, either atmospherically, underground, or underwater before 1 January 2013? ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

GJP: #1093 Will at least one Taliban representative be appointed to serve as a minister in the Afghan government before 1 January 2013? ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

GJP: #1094 Will Zimbabwe commence a presidential election before 1 January 2013? ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

GJP: #1095 Will there be a significant* outbreak of H5N1 in China in 2012? ( 35% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2013-01-04; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-04.

GJP: #1088 Will Japan commence parliamentary elections before 1 April 2012? ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.

GJP: #1085 Between 21 February 2012 and 1 April 2012, will the UN Security Council announce any reduction of its peacekeeping force in Haiti? ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.

GJP: #1091 Will Standard and Poor's downgrade Japan's Foreign Long Term credit rating at any point between 21 February 2012 and 1 April 2012? ( 30% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.

GJP: #1092 Will Myanmar release at least 100 more political prisoners between 21 February 2012 and 1 April 2012? ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.

I will have uploaded a playable version of a computer game before the first of July 2012. ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by antsan on 2012-02-21; known on 2012-06-30; judged wrong by antsan on 2012-07-13.

I will be selected for OpenSNP's free 23AndMe genotyping. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-20; known on 2012-04-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-10.

The forum mafia Bayes calculator will be completed within a month. ( 70% confidence )

Created by meisnewbie on 2012-02-20; known on 2012-03-20; judged wrong by meisnewbie on 2012-03-25.

Temperature outside below 30 ( 30% confidence )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-20; known on 2012-02-20; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-20.

Temperature outside between 30 and 40 F inclusive ( 60% confidence )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-20; known on 2012-02-20; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-20.

NGE: A version of the song “Komm, süsser Tod” will be used in Rebuild ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.

Tchaikovsky was a known drug addict. ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Leo on 2012-02-20; known on 2012-02-20; judged wrong by Leo on 2012-02-20.

HP MoR: The use of the device with the golden wibblers is revealed before 2017. ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-19; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2017-01-01.

The Drexler group escaped from the lab because they believed the self destruct system would work and prevent a grey goo scenario. (Baldr Sky) ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by meisnewbie on 2012-02-18; known on 2012-03-03; judged wrong by meisnewbie on 2012-02-18.

The final name for the SI spinoff currently called “rationality org” will be announced on Less Wrong within a week. ( 15% confidence; 7 comments )

Created by beo_shaffer on 2012-02-18; known on 2012-02-25; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-02-28.

Indian Supreme Court rules in favour of Novartis. ( 34% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-17; known on 2013-03-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-04-01.

The smallest federated wiki will move beyond the stage of proof of concept this year. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-02-16; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.

Seth Roberts will link to http://www.gwern.net/Zeo#vitamin-d within the week. ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-14; known on 2012-02-21; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-23.

Night 42: pill was Vitamin D ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-13; known on 2012-02-13; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-13.

Night 41: pill was Vitamin D ( 25% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-12; known on 2012-02-12; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-12.

Pill was Bupropion ( 30% confidence )

Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-11; known on 2012-02-11; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-11.

Night 40: pill was Vitamin D ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-11; known on 2012-02-11; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-11.

I will not fail a single actuarial exam before 2014. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-11; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2014-01-05.

Drakeryn gets shot by Chris or gets lynched next Touhou mafia day (numbers) ( 60% confidence )

Created by meisnewbie on 2012-02-11; known on 2012-02-14; judged wrong by meisnewbie on 2012-02-15.