Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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My wife and I will complete the 2nd version of the business plan within the next 36 hours. ( 79% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-29; known on 2012-03-31; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-30.
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I will obtain the CompTIA Linux+ Powered by LPI certification before 2013. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-29; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.
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I will obtain the CompTIA Security+ certification before 2013. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-29; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.
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I will complete my Network+ Anki deck in less than 48 hours from now. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-29; known on 2012-03-31; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-30.
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SCOTUS will strike down only the individual mandate and leave the rest of Obama healthcare law intact ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-29; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.
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Kevin will not end up going to police academy of any sort within this year, ( 75% confidence )
Created by williamycai on 2012-03-28; known on 2013-01-16; judged right by williamycai on 2012-09-06.
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My brother will become interested in Diablo 3 before the release date under the influence of his friends. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by williamycai on 2012-03-28; known on 2012-05-15; judged right by williamycai on 2012-04-03.
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I will not play another game of Dota for another 3 weeks. ( 4% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by williamycai on 2012-03-28; known on 2012-04-18; judged wrong by williamycai on 2012-04-03.
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Tebow will start at least 1 NFL game next year (2012-13 NFL season) ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-28; known on 2013-02-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-02-25.
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Facebook will settle with Yahoo on its patent suit by end of 2012 ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-28; known on 2012-12-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-07-07.
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Requesting facebook password for a job will be against the law in at least 1 state or against federal laws/regulations by end of 2013 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-28; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-05-05.
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Michael Jordan will sell or become passive owner of the Bobcats by start of 2013-14 NBA season ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-28; known on 2013-11-16; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-12-03.
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tonight's dinner will be end before 9pm ( 40% confidence )
Created by happyday on 2012-03-28; known on 2012-03-28; judged right by happyday on 2012-03-28.
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Accountability metrics will become a significant topic ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-28; known on 2013-09-28; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2013-09-30.
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Mobile app suites will emerge as a paid for layer on top of vanilla OS ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-28; known on 2013-09-28; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2013-09-30.
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HP MOR Ch81 Harry's solution is to use the time turner to go back in time and frame Lord Jugson for doing it by tampering with His/Hermoines/Dracos wands and false memory charming a student. ( 21% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Pringlescan4 on 2012-03-27; known on 2012-03-27; judged wrong by saturn on 2012-03-28.
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i won't get present for easter at all ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by happyday on 2012-03-27; known on 2012-04-09; judged wrong by happyday on 2012-04-07.
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my husband will cook dinner for me when i come home ( 70% confidence )
Created by happyday on 2012-03-27; known on 2012-03-27; judged wrong by happyday on 2012-03-28.
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Foreign military intervention in Mali ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Leo on 2012-03-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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Borders of Mali modified in the next ten years ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Leo on 2012-03-26; known on 2022-03-27; judged wrong by amadeu on 2022-04-21.
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Elections judged democratic by foreign observers held in Mali ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Leo on 2012-03-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Leo on 2013-01-13.
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Malian junta remains in power ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Leo on 2012-03-26; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by dk on 2014-03-21.
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Amadou Toumani Toure regains power in Mali ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Leo on 2012-03-26; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.
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Amadou Toumani Toure known dead on Dec 31 ( 30% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2012-03-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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Amadou Toumani Toure known alive on Dec 31 ( 60% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2012-03-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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HPMoR : ch 81 : Harry will marry Hermione and thereby make this a matter between noble houses, and then turn that into a trial by lightsaber of hermy and draco ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by rohit507 on 2012-03-26; known on 2012-03-27; judged wrong by saturn on 2012-03-28.
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Moogy will finish Mahoyo in one sitting on the day of release ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by meisnewbie on 2012-03-26; known on 2012-04-12; judged wrong by meisnewbie on 2012-04-21.
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Moogy will finish both '&' and TDA02 before Mahoyo releases ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by meisnewbie on 2012-03-26; known on 2012-04-12; judged wrong by meisnewbie on 2012-04-21.
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Moogy will finish one of TDA02 and '&' before Mahoyo releases ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by meisnewbie on 2012-03-26; known on 2012-04-12; judged right by meisnewbie on 2012-04-21.
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The minecraft apocalypse server (reddit/r/mcapoc) will be wiped in the next year. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Danny_Hintze on 2012-03-26; known on 2013-07-02; judged right by Danny_Hintze on 2013-07-05.
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At least 15 people will attend the next Student Economics Association roundtable. ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Danny_Hintze on 2012-03-26; known on 2012-03-30; judged wrong by Danny_Hintze on 2012-03-30.
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Hazem Salah Abu Ismail will be the next Egyptian president. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by HamletHenna on 2012-03-25; known on 2012-06-20; judged wrong by HamletHenna on 2012-06-20.
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HP MoR: The Hat and Cloak that interacted with Hermione is Professor McGonagall. ( 4% confidence; 20 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by cafesofie on 2012-03-25; known on 2016-04-17; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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Screens will not be the primary form of interface with mobile devices by 2025 ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-24; known on 2025-01-16.
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I will be able to meet with my friend on tuesday afternoon 3pm, because design studio will run short. ( 60% confidence )
Created by williamycai on 2012-03-24; known on 2012-03-27; judged right by williamycai on 2012-03-27.
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HP MoR: Nobody in the LW discussion thread will predict Harry's actual attempted solution (regardless of whether it fails). ( 25% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: Harry will confess to having arranged the attempted murder of Malfoy. ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by beo_shaffer on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: Priori Incantatum ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by gryffinp on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-29; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be using the Time-turner to smuggle Hermione out under the Cloak ( 4% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be using the Time-turner to affect Lucius in some way ( 10% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be using the Time-turner to alter Hermione's testimony to something easily falsifiable ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be using the Time-turner in some way ( 23% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: ch 81: Harry's solution will be to set his hair on fire and run around in circles, screaming. ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be have Quirrel make Bella confess to the crime ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be ask for a trial by combat ( 2% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will involve destroying one of the Dementors ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be accept Hermione's imprisonment but order the Dementors to leave her alone ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be offer the Wizengamot Voldemort's true identity (Quirrel) ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be reveal the truth about Bellatrix's escape ( 1% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be threaten to destroy Azkaban ( 5% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged right by Grognor on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be make Dumbledore turn himself in to Lucius in exchange for Hermione's freedom ( 31% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be invoke the Imperius-debts of other Wizengamot members ( 18% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be invoking Lucius's debt to whomever killed his supposed Imperiuser ( 35% confidence; 21 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged right by Grognor on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be nothing (failure) ( 6% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
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Ben won't show up to the tutorial today (23/3/12) ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JeffreyTse on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-23; judged right by JeffreyTse on 2012-03-23.
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WrestleMania XXVIII: Cody Rhodes defeats Big Show ( 49% confidence )
Created by Jach on 2012-03-22; known on 2012-04-02; judged wrong by Jach on 2012-04-02.
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WrestleMania XXVIII: Randy Orton defeats Kane ( 49% confidence )
Created by Jach on 2012-03-22; known on 2012-04-02; judged wrong by Jach on 2012-04-02.
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WrestleMania XXVIII: CM Punk defeats Chris Jericho ( 55% confidence )
Created by Jach on 2012-03-22; known on 2012-04-02; judged right by Jach on 2012-04-02.
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WrestleMania XXVIII: The Undertaker defeats Triple H ( 90% confidence )
Created by Jach on 2012-03-22; known on 2012-04-02; judged right by Jach on 2012-04-02.
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WrestleMania XXVIII: The Rock defeats John Cena ( 60% confidence )
Created by Jach on 2012-03-22; known on 2012-04-02; judged right by Jach on 2012-04-02.
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I will have nothing for breakfast, mcdonalds for lunch and chickens wings for dinner ( 80% confidence )
Created by williamycai on 2012-03-22; known on 2012-03-23; judged wrong by williamycai on 2012-03-23.
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SpaceX sends a passenger flight to Mars by 2023. ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-22; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-29.
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http://dkmvs.com/ will be a viral hit in 30 days. Edit: Let's define “hit” as averaging > 1,000 page views a day for 3 days prior to the outcome being known. ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by scott.arbeitman on 2012-03-21; known on 2012-04-21; judged wrong by scott.arbeitman on 2012-05-02.
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http://www.humanbirdwings.net/ will turn out to be a hoax. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by iemfi on 2012-03-21; known on 2012-04-21; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-03-22.
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HP MoR: Humans can be irrevocably transformed into House-Elves, and this is revealed in chapter 80. ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-19; known on 2012-03-22; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-03-23.
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There will be 20 or more people at tonight's compDesGrp session ( 50% confidence )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-19; known on 2012-03-19; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-19.
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The hunger games will not meet wife's expectations and will disappoint her ( 20% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by williamycai on 2012-03-19; known on 2012-03-22; judged right by williamycai on 2012-03-22.
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Apple will announce a dividend on their March 19, 2012 conference call ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-03-19; known on 2012-03-20; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-03-19.
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Three Stooges the movie will do better than expected (4 wk gross > $23m predicted by HSX) ( 67% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-18; known on 2012-05-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-04-26.
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Nobody will have competed all of the requirements for Tuesday's class ( 50% confidence )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-18; known on 2012-03-20; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-20.
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XiXiDu will not post or comment on LW for one year. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by papermachine on 2012-03-16; known on 2013-03-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-03-16.
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XiXiDu will not comment or post to LW for 5 years, round two. ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2012-03-16; known on 2017-03-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-03-16.
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I will finish reading any of my books to completion ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jach on 2012-03-16; known on 2012-04-16; judged right by Jach on 2012-04-21.
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HP MoR: Hat & Cloak is Voldemort, but not Quirrel ( 23% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-03-16; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Hat & Cloak is not a character from canon. He is, in fact, a character from an anime. ( 1% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-15; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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This magic the gathering ebay auction will sell for more than $190 (pre-shipping): http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=170797982659#ht_500wt_1413 ( 85% confidence )
Created by gsaines on 2012-03-14; known on 2012-03-15; judged right by gsaines on 2012-03-15.
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>=$1.6m will be donated towards the Center for Modern Rationality in the next month ( 1% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-12; known on 2012-04-12; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-12.
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I will score above 100 in at least one of the two “IQ tests” I take today. (iqout.com and iqtest.dk) ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-12; known on 2012-03-12; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-03-12.
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The Skritter app will have launched in the app store with a subscription payment model. ( 75% confidence )
Created by gsaines on 2012-03-11; known on 2012-04-15; judged wrong by gsaines on 2012-07-01.
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John Carter won't do as bad as expected (4 wk gross > 80m) ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-09; known on 2012-04-09; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-04-03.
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Zeo vitamin D morning: Week 1 & 2: placebo then vitamin D ( 65% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-09; known on 2012-03-09; judged right by gwern on 2012-03-09.
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I will retest my IQ in 60 days and it will be at least 5 points greater than it is today. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-09; known on 2012-05-08; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-11.
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Apple's announcement for the 4th major iPad refresh will call the new iPad “the new iPad” ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-03-09; known on 2013-08-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-11-22.
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In 12 months (End of Q1 2013), unit sales of iPad 3 LTE + iPad 2 Wifi > iPad 3 Wifi ( 45% confidence; 10 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-08; known on 2013-03-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2014-07-09.
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90% of us will be drunk on the first night of camp ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by dkim126 on 2012-03-08; known on 2012-03-09; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-13.
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I will still be using the RescueTime tracking tool after the 14 day trial is over. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-08; known on 2012-03-22; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-23.
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Kobe Bryant will own a professional sports team outside the US within the next 12 years (till 2024) ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-07; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2022-01-01.
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Tutor will post up choice results and I will get my choice of selected reading; delirious new york, for the subjection “the city” ( 20% confidence )
Created by williamycai on 2012-03-07; known on 2012-03-08; judged right by williamycai on 2012-03-08.
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I will complete the advanced revit modelling assessment 1 week before the due date. Due 24/3/2012 but I'll finish before the 18th. ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by williamycai on 2012-03-07; known on 2012-03-19; judged wrong by williamycai on 2012-03-19.
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Bill Gates will overtake Carlos Slim as world's richest in less than 5 years. ( 70% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-07; known on 2018-01-16; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-05-18.
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Scientists will confirm discovery of Higgs Boson by end of 2012 ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-07; known on 2013-01-16; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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Yu Darvish will have a good year (>150 innings, <4 ERA) ( 67% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-07; known on 2012-11-16; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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Peyton Manning will sign with the Redskins ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-07; known on 2012-08-16; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-03-20.
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If XiXiDu has taken a typical IQ test in the last 10 years or takes one this year, he will score at least 115. ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by muflax on 2012-03-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-03-08.
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Valve announces Steam Box before 2014. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by muflax on 2012-03-06; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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Hamza Kashgari will live to see 2013. ( 40% confidence )
Created by roshni on 2012-03-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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By 2020, there will have been at least 5 assassinations that were predicted by a prediction market (and known as such). ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2020-01-01.
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At least one government official (bureaucrat/politician/member of a royal family) assassinated by a flying robot before 2020. ( 57% confidence; 10 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-06; known on 2020-01-01.
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Kerala High Court hears a PIL against India's IT rules. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-06; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-07-01.
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Windows will have greater than 6% market share of smart phones by March 2013 (12 months from now) ( 43% confidence; 6 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-06; known on 2013-03-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.