PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Call was from the Mindspark guys. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-23; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-22.

I will try out the binary file program today. ( 40% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-23; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-22.

I will add at least 40 cards to my Maths/Stats/Electronics decks today. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-23; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-22.

I will do part of the paperwork for the 19th CS practical today. ( 10% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-22.

Rashi will score over 90% on her boards. ( 85% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2012-06-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-06-04.

Rashi will score over 80% on her boards. ( 100% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2012-06-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-06-04.

Akshay's file produces no errors on the first run. ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-22.

Akshay finds his lab manual in his bag. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-22.

Day 7: pill was modafinil. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-21; known on 2011-12-21; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-21.

An alternative to the US-based Domain Name System will be created and it will be used more widely than the US-based system before 2015. ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-21; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2015-01-01.

SOPA will become US law and either Youtube or Megaupload will be shutdown. ( 24% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Christopher on 2012-06-25.

I will complete at least two SQL practicals tomorrow. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-21; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-22.

I will have completed my Electronics report by the end of this week. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-21; known on 2011-12-26; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-25.

I will try out the binary file program today. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-21; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-21.

I will complete Project Euler #5 within the next 7 hours. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-21; known on 2011-12-22; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-21.

Dexter season 7: Dexter will intentionally kill Deb ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-21; known on 2012-12-19; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-12-17.

SOPA will pass through congress, and then it will not be vetoed. ( 49% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Grognor on 2011-12-21; known on 2012-10-16; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-07-26.

Steve Ballmer will be CEO of Microsoft at the end of 2012 ( 78% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by faws on 2011-12-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by faws on 2013-01-01.

Conditional on not buying RIM, Microsoft will license Android. —Cringely ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

Microsoft will buy RIM —Cringely ( 24% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

Michelle Bachmann will win the 2012 GOP nomination. ( 2% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by selylidne on 2011-12-20; known on 2012-08-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-09-09.

Rick Perry will win the 2012 GOP nomination. ( 3% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by selylidne on 2011-12-20; known on 2012-08-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-09-09.

Newt Gingrich will win the 2012 GOP nomination. ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by selylidne on 2011-12-20; known on 2012-08-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-09-09.

Ron Paul will win the 2012 GOP nomination. ( 8% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by selylidne on 2011-12-20; known on 2012-08-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-09.

Mitt Romney will win the 2012 GOP nomination. ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by selylidne on 2011-12-20; known on 2012-08-31; judged right by nohat on 2012-08-21.

Reddit: reminder that “Dawn of The Final Day” frontpage was predicted a year ago on frontpage on 2012/12/20. ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by muflax on 2011-12-20; known on 2012-12-20; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-12-21.

Reddit: “Dawn of The Final Day” meme on frontpage on 2012/12/20. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by muflax on 2011-12-20; known on 2012-12-20; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-12-21.

Ron Paul will win the Iowa Caucus. ( 39% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RobertLumley on 2011-12-20; known on 2012-01-03; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-01-04.

Within 5 years, 80% of the global population will own at least one mobile computing device (IBM “5 in 5” http://asmarterplanet.com/blog/2011/12/the-digital-divide-will-cease-to-exist.html) ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-12-20; known on 2016-12-20; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2018-02-25.

Within 5 years, “mind reading” (BCI) will have progressed to the point where you can control an external device, e.g. place a call to a contact just by thinking it. (IBM's “5 in 5” http://asmarterplanet.com/blog/2011/12/the-next-5-in-5-mind-reading-is-no- ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-12-20; known on 2016-12-20; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2018-02-25.

Within 5 years biometrics will displace passwords (IBM “5 in 5” http://asmarterplanet.com/blog/2011/12/the-next-5-in-5-you-will-never-need-a-password-again.html) ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-12-20; known on 2016-12-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-12-20.

In 5 years parasitic power collection will have become a significant market (IBM “5 in 5” http://ibmresearchnews.blogspot.com/2011/12/ibm-5-in-5-creating-energy-from.html) – for concreteness take “significant” to be $1Bn ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-12-20; known on 2016-12-20; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2018-02-25.

The Bitcoin price will hit 5 $/฿ in December 2011. ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Mqrius on 2011-12-20; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Mqrius on 2012-01-01.

Day 6: pill was modafinil. ( 65% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-20; known on 2011-12-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-20.

GJP: #1054 Will a North Korean or multinational military force fire on, invade, or enter South Korea before 1 June 2012? ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-06-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-06-01.

GJP: #1050 Will the next Palestinian general election commence by 1 June 2012? ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-06-01.

GJP: #1051 Will Mario Monti resign, lose re-election/confidence vote, or vacate the office of Prime Minister of Italy before 1 January 2013? ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-19; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.

GJP: #1052 Will Aung San Suu Kyi be sworn in or seated as a member of Parliament in Myanmar (Burma) before 1 January 2013? ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-19; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.

GJP: #1053 By 31 December 2012, will the UK officially announce its intention* to withdraw from the EU? ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

Dexter season 7: Quinn investigates Dexter. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by muflax on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-12-19; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-12-17.

Dexter season 7: Quinn and Louis will work together. ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by muflax on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-12-19; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-10-15.

Day 5: pill was modafinil. ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-19; known on 2011-12-19; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-19.

I will run 4 miles in 30 minutes or less before June 2012. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-06-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-01.

I will bench press my own bodyweight or more for 5 sets of 5 reps with 1 minute rests before June 2012. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-06-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-16.

I will squat my own bodyweight or more for 5 sets of 5 reps with 1 minute rests before June 2012. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-06-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-23.

I will deadlift my own bodyweight or more for 5 sets of 5 reps with 1 minute rests before June 2012. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-06-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-23.

Dexter season 7: real identity of Bay Harbor Butcher is publicly announced. ( 15% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by muflax on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-12-19; judged right by muflax on 2012-12-17.

Dexter: There will be wincest. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by muflax on 2011-12-19; known on 2013-12-19; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-09-23.

Dexter season 7: I will call one major twist in the final episode of the season halfway through. ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by muflax on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-12-19; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-11-07.

Dexter season 7: a regular dies. ( 33% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by muflax on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-12-19; judged right by muflax on 2012-12-17.

Dexter dies in the final episode. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by muflax on 2011-12-19; known on 2013-12-19; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-09-23.

Dexter season 7: Deb forgets the finale of season 6. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by muflax on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-12-19; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-12-17.

Dexter season 7: Deb and Dex kiss. ( 40% confidence )

Created by muflax on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-12-19; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-12-17.

Singularity Institute's new website design will go live before February 16, 2012. ( 70% confidence )

Created by lukeprog on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-02-16; judged wrong by lukeprog on 2012-02-17.

gwern.net total traffic will average <2000 daily visits in the week a year from now. ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-17; known on 2012-12-17; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-17.

gwern.net referral traffic will average <1000 daily visits in the week a year from now. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-17; known on 2012-12-17; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-17.

Globish(a minimalistic dialect of English used for international buisness) will be the de facto language of Europe by 2030 ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Keller on 2011-12-16; known on 2030-12-31.

I will have share up and running today. ( 40% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-16; known on 2011-12-17; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-16.

I will have LWT up and running today. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-16; known on 2011-12-17; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-16.

I will study Electronics for at least an hour today. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-16; known on 2011-12-17; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-16.

I will study actuarial science for at least two hours today. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-16; known on 2011-12-17; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-16.

I will enjoy Sherlock Holmes tonight. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-15; known on 2011-12-16; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-15.

Coventry City FC will avoid relegation from the Championship League. ( 30% confidence )

Created by leejhancox on 2011-12-14; known on 2012-04-29; judged wrong by leejhancox on 2012-04-29.

GJP: #1048 Will S&P downgrade the AAA long-term credit rating of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) by 30 March 2012? ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-14; known on 2012-03-30; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-20.

GJP: #1049 Will Asif Ali Zardari resign, lose re-election/confidence vote, or vacate the office of President of Pakistan before 1 June 2012? ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-14; known on 2012-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-06-01.

GJP: #1047 Will a foreign or multinational military force fire on, invade, or enter Iran before 1 September 2012? ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-14; known on 2012-09-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-01.

Day 4: pill was modafinil. ( 75% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-14; known on 2011-12-14; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-14.

I will complete the paperwork for at least 2 CS practicals tomorrow. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-14; known on 2011-12-15; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-15.

Tomorrow is results day. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-14; known on 2011-12-15; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-15.

If Romney wins the Republican candidacy, then Obama will publicly offer him a bet sometime during the 2012 presidential campaign. This prediction will be withdrawn if the antecedent proposition is false. ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-14; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.

I will add at least 20 cards to my M1 deck today. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-14; known on 2011-12-15; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-14.

Day 3: pill was modafinil. ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-13; known on 2011-12-13; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-13.

I will study electronics for at least an hour tomorrow. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-13; known on 2011-12-15; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-14.

I will study actuarial science for at least 2 hours tomorrow. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-13; known on 2011-12-15; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-14.

I will make an Anki deck for M1 and add at least 20 cards to it today. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-13; known on 2011-12-14; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-13.

A law that creates some form of Internet blacklist which requires search engines or ISPs to block specific sites will be passed in the USA before 2014 ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by saturn on 2011-12-13; known on 2014-01-02; judged wrong by saturn on 2014-01-04.

Silverlight 6 (or higher version) will be released for Windows before 2015 ( 42% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-13; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.

Chrome will be the most widely used browser during July 2012 according to StatCounter. ( 68% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by faws on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-08-05; judged right by faws on 2012-07-31.

GJP: #1045 Will a trial for Saif al-Islam Gaddafi begin in any venue by 31 March 2012? ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-04-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-04-03.

GJP: #1044 Will the United Kingdom's Tehran embassy officially reopen by 29 February 2012? ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-03-05.

GJP: #1043 Will Lucas Papademos resign, lose re-election/confidence vote, or vacate the office of Prime Minister of Greece before 1 March 2012? ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-03-05.

I will complete the paperwork for at least 2 CS practicals tomorrow. ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-12; known on 2011-12-13; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-13.

I will complete the paperwork for at least one CS practical tomorrow. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-12; known on 2011-12-13; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-13.

Dexter season 6: Deb and Dex kiss. ( 15% confidence )

Created by muflax on 2011-12-12; known on 2011-12-21; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-19.

Dexter season 6: a regular dies. ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by muflax on 2011-12-12; known on 2011-12-21; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-19.

Dexter season 6: Louis kills Travis. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by muflax on 2011-12-12; known on 2011-12-21; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-19.

Dexter: Louis returns in season 7 as non-villain. ( 25% confidence )

Created by muflax on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-12-12; judged right by muflax on 2012-10-15.

Dexter: Louis returns in season 7 as villain. ( 35% confidence )

Created by muflax on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-12-12; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-10-15.

Before 2013, Google will stop developing Chrome OS, or announce a Chromebook running Android, or announce a netbook/ultrabook-shaped successor running Android ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 13 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.

PredictionBook's email notification system will be fixed by the end of this year. ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-02-29.

Day 2: pill was modafinil ( 35% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-12; known on 2011-12-12; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-12.

I will get over an 80 on my USH test I took last week ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Isaac on 2011-12-11; known on 2011-12-18; judged wrong by Isaac on 2011-12-20.

Harvard's yield for the class of 2016 will be 76% or below. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-11; known on 2012-05-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-05-20.

I will leave for my parents house by 3:00 today. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by RobertLumley on 2011-12-11; known on 2011-12-12; judged right by RobertLumley on 2011-12-12.

Aakash will complete MW3 by midnight. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-11; known on 2011-12-11; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-12.

I will attend lectures tomorrow. ( 20% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-11; known on 2011-12-12; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-12.

I will update my Ubuntu install this week. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-11; known on 2011-12-19; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-13.

Tonight, I will find a raw txt — I mean, a completely legal copy of the book that has been recommended to me. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-11; known on 2011-12-12; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-11.

I will have completed the first 19 CS-2 practicals by the end of this year. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-11; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-26.

Kasia Rivera will be found guilty of manslaughter for performing fatal penis enlargement procedure ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by stephenh on 2011-12-10; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2016-03-12.

Statistics

Recent Predictions