Joseph is at Elizabeth's apartment ( 40% confidence )

Created by RobertLumley on 2012-01-08; known on 2012-01-08; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2012-01-08.

Night 8: pill was Vitamin D ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-08; known on 2012-01-08; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-08.

Tomorrow morning, I will have negative karma on LessWrong. ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-08; known on 2012-01-09; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-09.

Copyright ruled unconstitutional by a US court before 2016. ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.

Copyright is challenged in a US court as unconstitutional before 2016. The case is not dismissed without hearing. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-07.

Copyright is challenged in a US court as unconstitutional before 2013. The case is not dismissed without hearing. ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-08; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

Googling 'real websites' will throw up at least one amusing hit or autocomplete. (only first-page hits count) ( 20% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-08; known on 2012-01-08; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-08.

I will become a Peter Thiel Fellow. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Grognor on 2012-01-08; known on 2012-08-06; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-03-05.

I will enjoy this random youtube thing. ( 20% confidence )

Created by yurifury on 2012-01-08; known on 2012-01-08; judged wrong by yurifury on 2012-01-08.

Part 2 of Shikamaru vs the Logical Fallacies to be ready within 2 months ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-08; known on 2012-03-08; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-08.

Part 2 of Shikamaru vs the Logical Fallacies to be ready within a month ( 45% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-08; known on 2012-02-08; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-08.

The bitcoin protocol will have a fatal weakness that is discovered, leading to the crash of the bitcoin economy. End of year prediction. ( 3% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by kiba on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-12-30; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-31.

Night 7: pill was Vitamin D ( 35% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-01-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-07.

Won't have broadband tomorrow morning. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-01-08; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-08.

The future of the Euro: Germany / Netherlands abandon Euro and form new currency / currencies. Remaining currencies also abandon the Euro and relaunch national currencies. ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by siscoking on 2012-01-07; known on 2014-01-16; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-02-02.

The future of the Euro: Germany / Netherlands abandon Euro and form new currency / currencies. Remaining countries retain the Euro as a currency of the smaller Euro zone, without Germany. ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by siscoking on 2012-01-07; known on 2014-01-16; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-02-02.

The future of the Euro: Pheripheral countries leave, Germany and France lead move to fiscal union. Smaller Euro survives. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by siscoking on 2012-01-07; known on 2014-01-16; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-02-02.

Will have changed Windows' display language to Japanese by next Sunday. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-01-15; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-15.

Reading my classmates’ public argument on Facebook will amuse me greatly ( 20% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-01-07; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-07.

Stats assignment for today will include χ^2 or student's-t distributions. ( 10% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-01-07; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-07.

Electronics project due Wednesday. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-01-07; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-07.

I will regret not attending the IAI President's speech. ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-01-30; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-29.

Someone from the IAI will ring me up on the day of the President's speech. The call will be regarding my non-attendance. ( 20% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-01-09; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-08.

'Ame Nochi Kumochi Nochi Hare' was the theme song of one of the 'Aa Megamisama' animes/OVAs. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-01-06; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.

I will have stopped wasting time on Omegle by 2:30. (It's 1:25 now.) ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-01-06; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.

The Bitcoin price will hit 8 $/฿ in January 2012 UTC. ( 55% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Mqrius on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.

Bitcoin >$9000 by February. ( 0% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.

Ballmer will step down as MS CEO and be replaced by Eric Schmidt —Cringely ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-05; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

“A new Microsoft CEO” [Ballmer steps down] —Cringely ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-05; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

“Facebook will back into an IPO by buying Yahoo” —Mr Windows ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-05; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-02.

“No IPO for Facebook” —Cringely ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-05; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-02.

“Leprechauns” (http://leanpub.com/leprechauns) will top the $720 in sales suggested by pre-publication declarations of interest (60 interested readers at an average of $12), within two weeks. ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-01-05; known on 2012-01-19; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-01-24.

The IFC Center will detect me sneaking into the second movie & kick me out. ( 30% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-05; known on 2012-01-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-05.

Night 5: pill was vitamin D. ( 60% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-05; known on 2012-01-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-05.

I will continue wasting time on Omegle until 8 PM. (It's 5 PM now.) ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-05; known on 2012-01-05; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-05.

euro and us dollar will form a new currency within 10 years (both will be supplanted by a common currency shared by the USA and some current Euro members) ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by siscoking on 2012-01-04; known on 2022-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2022-01-17.

Either Morotola or Cisco will buy Tivo. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

“Prediction #4: Motorola buys TiVO” —Cringely ( 35% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

The Church of Kopimism will have over 20k members by 2013. Prediction will be withdrawn if membership stats aren't available. ( 57% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.

I will finish reading GEB before I go to college. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by ahartell on 2012-01-04; known on 2012-09-23; judged wrong by ahartell on 2012-09-23.

By the end of the year Namecoin would be closer to Bitcoin in value than to the early-2012 value of Namecoin. ( 78% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by marchdown on 2012-01-03; known on 2012-12-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-27.

“Bitcoins will be accepted by at least one major online trader of legal goods” (top 500) ( 14% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-03; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

“Bitcoins will be accepted by at least one major online trader of legal goods” (top 100) ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-03; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

I have heard Life before. ( 20% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-03; known on 2012-01-03; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-03.

'Kimi ni aeta Yokatta' is from one of the Slayers series. ( 30% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-03; known on 2012-01-03; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-03.

2012 i will enter a romantic relationship that will last longer than 30 days. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-01-03; known on 2013-01-30; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-01-30.

I will consume a story (book, movie, comic…) in french primarly for enjoyment and not language learning. ( 45% confidence )

Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-01-03; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.

Future Cities Development Inc. will found at least one settlement in a special development region in Honduras and it will have a population of equal to or greater than 500 before 2013. ( 5% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-03; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.

I will “remember my name, or soon learn it” for MSN contact sparky_tails for something Microsoft-related ( 10% confidence )

Created by Jach on 2012-01-03; known on 2013-01-16; judged wrong by ewang on 2013-01-19.

“Intel buys [merges with] Qualcomm” —Cringely ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-03; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

AMZN market cap >= 0.25 * AAPL on 31 December 2012. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

“Apple will get a new CEO in 2012” [not Tim Cook] —Cringeley ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

In 2012, I will go to at least two open viewing nights for telescopes in the greater Boston area ( 58% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.

I will read at least 15 novels of the Maria-sama ga Miteru series in the next 2 years. ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2014-01-05.

In 2012 there will be new results for either the group isomorphism problem or the graph isomorphism problem discussed at at least one of the following blogs: Combinatorics and more, Shetl-Optimized, Godel's Lost Letter. ( 52% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.

There will be improvement in efficient matrix multiplication in 2012 that will be discussed in at least one of the following blogs: Combinatorics and more, Shetl-Optimized, Godel's Lost Letter. ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.

In 2012, Clashes between North Korea and South Korea will result in fatalities, or the North Korean government will collapse. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.

Night 2: pill was Vitamin D. ( 35% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-02.

I will be defrauded, stolen from, robbed, burgled, or assaulted during my stay in Mexico City. ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-17.

I will be murdered during my stay in Mexico City. ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-17.