Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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Nobody will independently recreate my idea in response to http://lesswrong.com/r/lesswrong/lw/9eo/a_call_for_solutions_and_a_tease_of_mine/. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2012-01-16; known on 2012-01-19; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-01-18.
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Night 15: pill was Vitamin D ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-15; known on 2012-01-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-15.
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Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 more than US$ 35 ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by siscoking on 2012-01-15; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
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Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 more than US$ 30 ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by siscoking on 2012-01-15; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
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Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 more than US$ 25 ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by siscoking on 2012-01-15; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
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Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 more than US$ 20 ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by siscoking on 2012-01-15; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
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Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 more than US$ 15 ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by siscoking on 2012-01-15; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
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Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 more than US$ 10 ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by siscoking on 2012-01-15; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
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GoodSearch (http://goodsearch.com/) will continue to operate two years from today. ( 81% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Grognor on 2012-01-14; known on 2014-01-14; judged right by Grognor on 2014-01-15.
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GoodSearch (http://goodsearch.com/) will continue to operate one year from today. ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Grognor on 2012-01-14; known on 2013-01-14; judged right by Grognor on 2013-01-14.
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iPad 3 will have a quad-core CPU ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-14; known on 2012-03-08; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-03-07.
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Blue Waters built, fully online, and capable of >1 sustained petaflops by 2013 ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Night 14: pill was Vitamin D ( 60% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2012-01-14; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-14.
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“computing systems powerful enough to manage a synapse-level simulation of a human brain in real time and then some” by 2092 —Charles Stross ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
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A human neural connectome will have been mapped by 2092 —Charles Stross ( 93% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
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Cultured mammalian meat cheaper than and as tasty as real meat by 2092 —Charles Stross ( 72% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
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Between 2012 and 2092, a new plague will kill 1M<x<1B people —Charles Stross ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
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Limb and organ (re)growth medically commercialized —Charles Stross ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
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Diabetes cured by 2092 —Charles Stross ( 80% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
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Aging arrested or reversible by 2092 —Charles Stross ( 66% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
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By 2092, any orbital solar power stations will still be for space applications, and not ground use (eg. beaming it down as microwaves) —Charles Stross ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
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“The USA will not have been the dominant planetary superpower for at least fifty years. The EU won't have replaced it. China will be over the peak and probably a long way down the down-slope. The future belongs to someone else. Maybe Brazil or India?” —C ( 52% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
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“There will be 5-10 billion people.” —Charles Stross ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
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“Between 50% and 80% of them will be city-dwellers, and their average age will be rising.” ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
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By 2092, “20-40% of mammalian species, 20-60% of reptiles, 40-80% of amphibia, and maybe 50% or more of insects will be extinct.” —Charles Stross ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
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“HIV will be curable — either through better anti retroviral drugs or through gene therapy” by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 45% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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“Newspapers as we know them today will either not exist, or no longer print ink on paper” by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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“Half of Facebook, Google, Apple, Microsoft, Hewlett-Packard, Nokia, Sony and IBM will no longer exist” —Charles Stross ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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“gigabit wireless connection speeds will be the norm outside the home or office” by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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Genetically-modified-crop-caused famine by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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“Moore's Law will have played out by 2032” —Charles Stross ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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Cultured mammalian meat commercially available by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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All freshwater fisheries fed on processed jellyfish by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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“the trend towards urbanization continues” 2012-2032 —Charles Stross ( 85% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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Average global age higher in 2032 than 2012 —Charles Stross ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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“Cars will probably mostly be plug-in hybrids” in 2032 —Charles Stross ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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Automated driving infrastructure in First World; majority of new cars large/completely automated. —Charles Stross ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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Commercial fusion reactor online by 2063 —Charles Stross ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2063-01-01.
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Pilot net-energy fusion plant online by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 49% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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“oil will still be available and planes will still be burning it.” —Charles Stross ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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Total Chinese rice production to be less in 2032 than in 2012 ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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Climate change denial completely discredited – “about as respectable as Lysenkoism is today” —Charles Stross ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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Charles Stross will survive to 2032 ( 71% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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The energy source formerly known as cold fusion will be generally accepted as real by end 2012. ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by waveman on 2012-01-13; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-31.
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I will drop out of college. ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-13; known on 2014-03-31; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2014-03-31.
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Night 13: pill was Vitamin D ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-13; known on 2012-01-13; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-13.
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I will tinker with PredictionBook's source code before April 1 and manage to add a new feature. ( 6% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-13; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-03-30.
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I will successfully complete an internet programming job (PHP/Rails/something like that) on oDesk and be paid for it before May 1. ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-13; known on 2012-05-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-05-01.
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Will submit my database case study before the deadline. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-13; known on 2012-01-17; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-23.
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the dog will have a good life ( 79% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by kim13579 on 2012-01-12; known on 2012-01-26; judged right by kim13579 on 2012-01-12.
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I scored a 90 or higher on my calc quiz today. ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ahartell on 2012-01-12; known on 2012-01-26; judged right by ahartell on 2012-01-17.
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I will eat no more than 1000kcal/day (± 10%) in January. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Lemmih on 2012-01-12; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by Lemmih on 2012-02-01.
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Night 12: pill was Vitamin D ( 70% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-12; known on 2012-01-12; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-12.
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Jeg kommer til Korea inden sommer. ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by OptiMind on 2012-01-12; known on 2012-05-01; judged wrong by OptiMind on 2012-05-09.
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Det tager mig <30 minutter at køre på cykel fra Lundsgade til Scandiagade ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OptiMind on 2012-01-12; known on 2012-01-12; judged right by OptiMind on 2012-01-12.
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I will buy a car before graduating college. ( 4% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-12; known on 2014-05-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2014-05-01.
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Google Search will be inaccessible to US visitors for at least 4 hours due to a “blackout” protesting pending legislation, before 2013 ( 5% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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I will watch the 2013 movie 'Ender's Game' and like it, before 2019 ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-12; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
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Night 11: pill was Vitamin D ( 30% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-11; known on 2012-01-11; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-11.
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Iran will not successfully test a nuclear weapon in 2012. ( 93% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by smijer on 2012-01-11; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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No new seats in Congress for Third Party or Independent candidates in 2012. ( 85% confidence; 6 wagers; 52 comments )
Created by smijer on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-11-10; judged wrong by smijer on 2012-11-10.
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World will not end or be radically transformed in accordance with apocalyptic expectations of any major world religion (as they are understood prior to the events of 2012). ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by smijer on 2012-01-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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Solar flare to harm life on Earth ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kish on 2012-01-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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USD worth over 3 EUR ( 18% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kish on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-12-21; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-21.
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World economic depression ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kish on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-12-21; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-27.
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Mitt Romney secures GOP nomination within 2 weeks after Super Tuesday. ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by smijer on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-03-20; judged wrong by smijer on 2012-03-21.
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Night 10: pill was Vitamin D ( 35% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-01-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-10.
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Iran will not be invaded or attacked this year ( 76% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by modulus on 2012-01-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by modulus on 2013-01-01.
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3rd Test Australia v India at Perth: India Wins ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Akshay Rawat on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-01-17; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-30.
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Apple's share in the smartphone market will collapse to 10% or less by the end of this year. ( 31% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by kiba on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-12-30; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-30.
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Sometime in the next 5 years, a television network will make a build show that involves hackerspaces. ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by kiba on 2012-01-09; known on 2017-02-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-02-02.
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GJP: #1057 Will the Russian military deploy* additional Iskander missiles before 1 February 2013? ( 40% confidence; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-09; known on 2013-02-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-02-01.
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GJP: #1056 Will €1 Euro buy less than $1.20 US dollars at any point before 1 January 2013? ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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GJP: #1062 Will the daily Europe Brent Crude FOB spot price per barrel be greater than or equal to $150 before 3 April 2012? ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-04-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-04.
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GJP: #1060 Will Christian Wulff resign or vacate the office of President of Germany before 1 April 2012? ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-04-01; judged right by faws on 2012-02-18.
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GJP: #1061 Will Syria’s Arab League membership be reinstated* by 31 December 2012? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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GJP: #1058 By 1 April 2012, will Egypt officially announce its withdrawal from its 1979 peace treaty with Israel? ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
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GJP: #1055 Will North Korea successfully detonate a nuclear weapon, either atmospherically, underground, or underwater, between 9 January 2012 and 1 April 2012? ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-04-01.
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GJP: #1059 Will Kim Jong-un attend an official, in-person meeting with any G8 head of government* before 1 April 2012? ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-04-01.
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I will earn 300 dollars worth of bitcoin by the end of the month. ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by kiba on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by kiba on 2012-02-28.
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I will continue to work on the game “The City” by next month. ( 33% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kiba on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-04.
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Night 9: pill was Vitamin D ( 65% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-01-09; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-09.
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No elected government will hold power in Egypt in 2012 ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by _W_ on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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I have heard 'raging waves' before. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-01-09; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-09.
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There will be a referendum on Scottish independence ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by modulus on 2012-01-09; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by scav on 2014-09-14.
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I will have listened to Dorothy's memories tape and mailed her a letter with my comments and thoughts. ( 40% confidence )
Created by waveman on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-02-28; judged right by waveman on 2012-02-23.
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I will have completed a project that is useful that uses some AI technology. ( 65% confidence )
Created by waveman on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by waveman on 2012-08-08.
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I will have completed two masters level AI courses at ANU or equivalent ( 30% confidence )
Created by waveman on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-11-30; judged wrong by waveman on 2012-08-08.
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During 2012 I will be actively involved in some activist activity. Eg MC. ( 35% confidence )
Created by waveman on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2012-08-08.
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I will have achieved a heart rate of 165 for 15 minutes straight which is my aerobic fitness goal. ( 80% confidence )
Created by waveman on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-02-28; judged right by waveman on 2012-02-23.
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I will have achieved intermediate level weightlifting levels for all lifts as defined in my spreadsheet. ( 75% confidence )
Created by waveman on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-03-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2012-03-31.
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I will have reduced excess fat to the point that I will have visible abs. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-03-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2012-03-31.
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I have comprehensive investment models for individual stocks. Evidence: details of models and research which developed them. Fully implemented and trading. ( 50% confidence )
Created by waveman on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2012-08-08.
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I will have basic stock trading model done, with initial trades by this date. ( 50% confidence )
Created by waveman on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-09-30; judged wrong by waveman on 2012-08-08.
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First chapter of a fic stemming from my satire of John Galt's prediction is published by April 1. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-04-01.
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“9. Facebook hits 1 billion users” —Brian Breslin ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-08; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Salesforce will buy Hootsuite and/or Klout. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-08; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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“3. LivingSocial catches up to Groupon” —Brian Breslin ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-08; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Square Inc. will be bought or merged within 5 years. ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-08; known on 2017-01-08; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-08.
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“Square will get bought out by Amex or Visa” —Brian Breslin ( 40% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-08; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.