PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

The Less Wrong user calcsam will publicly deconvert from Mormonism before 2015. ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-12-01.

LessWrong: By 2013, date last edited shows up next to comments that have been edited. (Would foil this evil plan, for instance. http://bit.ly/w0lkyQ ) ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

Will have changed Windows' display language to Japanese by Sunday. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-08; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-07.

送る　is pronounced そうる ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-02.

切り取り is pronounced きりとり ( 70% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-02; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-02.

完全 is pronounced かんぜん ( 80% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-02; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-02.

最近 is pronounced さいきん ( 90% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-02; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-02.

Will have completed the maths FAC for ACET by Saturday. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-07; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.

The winner of the 2012 US presidential election will have been the candidate that spent more money on the campaign than any other individual candidate. ( 80% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-01-03.

Copying the ja-jp registry key from my laptop to my PC and deleting the en-us key will change my PC's display language to Japanese. ( 10% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-02.

Chris Brown will be arrested for assault, domestic violence, or criminal damage before 2013. ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

A previously unreleased song by Michael Jackson will be released sometime before 2013. ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.

There will be a driverless car available for purchase for less than $100,000 (inflation adjusted to Jan 1, 2012) in the US in 2018. ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Porejide on 2022-09-25.

Manual install will work on my laptop. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-02; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-02.

Manual install will work on my PC. ( 40% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-02.

Dark Knight Rises will be released in 2012 and will obtain Rotten Tomotoes score of at equal to or greater than 50% and equal or less than 85%. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.

Fix 50528 fixed the problem. ( 40% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-02.

The mens' rights movement will be mentioned by name in a Time or Newsweek article sometime during 2012. ( 33% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.

If Obama is re-elected, then a white male will go on a “shooting spree” and the shooter will mention the “political climate” as a motivating factor. If the antecedent proposition is false, then this prediction will be withdrawn. ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-01-03.

HP MoR: Harry is Voldemort ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by ahartell on 2012-01-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2016-01-01.

Repairing .NET client profile will fix the error. ( 10% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-02.

Trying to install the Japanese language pack produces an error (again). ( 70% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-02; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-02.

“There will be a major war, starting in the Middle East. Israel will lose (75%). China will probably join in on the radical-Muslim side. Iran will try to use its nukes but they will be duds. Israel will not use theirs…” —jdgalt ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-01-01.

“The Supreme Court will uphold ObamaCare” —jdgalt ( 66% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-05-30; judged right by RobertLumley on 2012-06-28.

Republican 2012 nominee not Ron Paul or Gary Johnson; Tea Party splits between Republican & Libertarian party; Obama elected ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-07.

Tea Party splits between Republican & Libertarian party ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-07.

Republican 2012 nominee not Ron Paul or Gary Johnson ( 97% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-07.

Will change Windows' display language to Japanese today. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-03; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-02.

At least three papers with the word “connectomics” in their title or abstract will be published in Nature in 2012. ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Porejide on 2013-01-02.

By Jan 1, 2013, there will be a way to directly input your estimated probability distribution across a range of different possible quantities when making a prediction on PB. ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-01-01.

12 Angry Men will be #5 or higher on imdb's top 250 on Jan 1, 2013. (it is currently #6) http://www.imdb.com/chart/top ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Porejide on 2013-01-02.

The Shawshank Redemption will be #1 on imdb's top 250 on Jan 1, 2013. (it is currently #1) http://www.imdb.com/chart/top ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Porejide on 2013-01-02.

On Jan 1, 2013, there will be seven or more movies from 2012 on imdb's top 250. http://www.imdb.com/chart/top ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Porejide on 2013-01-02.

On Jan 1, 2013, there will be 3 or fewer movies from 2011 on imdb's top 250. (down from current 6) http://www.imdb.com/chart/top ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-01-01.

'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' —Kevin ( 14% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-01; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.

NGE: 4.0 will be titled “You Can (Not) Stay Here” ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.

Night 1: pill was Vitamin D. ( 70% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-01.

The Bitcoin price will hit 6 $/฿ in January 2012 UTC. ( 81% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Mqrius on 2012-01-01; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-05.

The Bitcoin price will hit 5 $/฿ in January 2012 UTC. ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Mqrius on 2012-01-01; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by Mqrius on 2012-01-01.

Barack Obama will be re-elected President of the United States of America ( 77% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by georgesdelatour on 2012-01-01; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.

Bashar al-Assad will not be president of Syria on Dec 31 2012 ( 36% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by georgesdelatour on 2012-01-01; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

I will make at least one prediction on PredictionBook in 2013 ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-12-31.

S1 marks are more strongly correlated with C1 attendance than with S1 attendance. ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-01.

C1 marks are more strongly correlated with S1 attendance than C1 attendance. ( 10% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-01.

Correlation between C1 attendance and marks will be less than 0.7 ( 90% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-01.

Will change Windows' display language to Japanese today. ('今日は、Ｗｉｎｄｏｗｓの表語を日本語に変わります'?) ( 60% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-01; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-01.

united Korea’s GDP > Japan in 2050 ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-31; known on 2050-01-01.

united Korea's GDP > France, Germany, and Japan in 2050 ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-31; known on 2050-01-01.

Half-Life 3 released in 2012. ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by muflax on 2011-12-31; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-01-01.

HBO's Game of Thrones is not cancelled before covering all ASoIaF books (including upcoming ones). ( 51% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by muflax on 2011-12-31; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by davatk on 2019-06-13.

Q.I. makes it up to “Z”. ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by muflax on 2011-12-31; known on 2028-12-31.

Q.I. abandons its “one letter a season” concept. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by muflax on 2011-12-31; known on 2028-12-31.

Bitcoin/USD prices: “best case, 10 bucks. Worst case, 5 bucks.” —kiba ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-31; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

“one of the top 5 biggest bitcoin sites will be hacked and the hacker will profit by gaining lots of bitcoins” —kiba ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-31; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.

Stranger will claim to live in London. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-31; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-31.

'I expect to see an impressive proto-AGI within the next 8 years' —Shane Legg ( 20% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-31; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2019-12-31.

Reddit: “teaching daughter to ride bike” pic is reposted as “autistic daughter”. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by muflax on 2011-12-30; known on 2012-04-30; judged right by muflax on 2012-03-31.

Stranger will dc. ( 50% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-29; known on 2011-12-29; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-29.

Stranger is female. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-29; known on 2011-12-29; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-29.

Stranger will dc. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-29; known on 2011-12-29; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-29.

Stanger will dc. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-29; known on 2011-12-29; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-29.

Stranger will dc. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-29; known on 2011-12-29; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-29.

Stranger will dc. ( 95% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-29; known on 2011-12-29; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-29.

Correlation between C1 marks and S1 marks will be > 0.7 ( 80% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-29; known on 2011-12-29; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-29.

Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP. ( 86% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-29; known on 2025-12-29.

Before 2013, the US embassy in Beijing will stop publicly reporting air pollution readings (at least one continuous month with no readings) ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-28; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.

In 10 years, mainland China's TI Corruption Perceptions Index will be lower (better) than the USA. ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2021-12-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2021-12-29.

In 20 years, mainland China's TI Corruption Perceptions Index will be lower (better) than the USA. ( 22% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2031-12-28.

HP MoR: 'I bet Quirrel will die fighting Voldemort to protect Harry before chapter 100' —shminux ( 3% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.

reddit.com/r/GEB/ will fizzle out and not finish GEB. ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by ZrCa on 2011-12-28; known on 2012-07-19; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.

Robin Hanson will publish a book before 2030 ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2030-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2016-06-14.

Robin Hanson will publish a book before 2025 ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known in 8 days; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2016-06-14.

Robin Hanson will publish a book before 2020 ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-09.

Phone battery strength will increase with at least 100% in the next coming 5 years ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by jplattel on 2011-12-28; known on 2016-12-28.

Person I'm chatting with is an engineer/engineering student from India. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-28; known on 2011-12-28; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-28.

Person I'm chatting with is a girl. ( 10% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-28; known on 2011-12-28; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-28.

Robin Hanson will publish a book before 2015. ( 27% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.

'Groupon will trade less than 25% of its current share price and may restructure / fold' —dia80 ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-27; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.

The Yellowstone Supervolcano will have a magmatic eruption before 2023 ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-27; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.

Pauleen turns out to be shorter than me. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-27; known on 2011-12-27; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-27.

I will receive <10 pull requests for the GitHub repo for gwern.net. ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-27; known on 2012-01-27; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-27.

I will receive <10 items of anonymous feedback on my form. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-27; known on 2012-01-27; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-27.

It will take Jonathan longer than 30 minutes to bike home. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Lemmih on 2011-12-26; known on 2011-12-26; judged wrong by Lemmih on 2011-12-26.

Retain the 1:45 slot for Mindspark. Or get a slot after 12:30. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-26; known on 2011-12-26; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-26.

If Eliezer Yudkowsky decides to follow Kevin's diet for at least three months in the next two years, his end weight after three months will be at least ten pounds (~4.5 kg) lighter than his starting weight. ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by papermachine on 2011-12-26; known on 2014-01-16; judged right by wedrifid on 2014-01-16.

Eliezer Yudkowsky will follow Kevin's diet (see comments for details) for at least three months in the next two years. ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by papermachine on 2011-12-26; known on 2014-01-16; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-02-05.

Day 8: pill was modafinil. ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-25; known on 2011-12-25; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-25.

Nivedit won't sign up for any Stanford courses in January or February, or, if he does, will drop all of them within 5 weeks. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-25; known on 2012-03-31; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-03-31.

In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB). ( 20% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-24; known on 2021-12-24; judged wrong by gwern on 2021-12-24.

The correlation between S1 marks and attendence will be > 0.6 ( 60% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-24; known on 2011-12-24; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-24.

Will try the binary filehandling program out today. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-23; known on 2011-12-24; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-23.

The Dow Jones will finish 2012 below 12000 pts ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by leejhancox on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.

I will have a profitable bot before April 1st, 2012. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Lemmih on 2011-12-22; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Lemmih on 2012-04-01.

I will get a B in my LinAlg class. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Lemmih on 2011-12-22; known on 2012-02-20; judged wrong by Lemmih on 2012-02-14.

I will get an A in my OOPD class. ( 90% confidence )

Created by Lemmih on 2011-12-22; known on 2012-02-20; judged right by Lemmih on 2012-03-28.

I will edit my keyboard layout and build it today. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-23; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-22.

I will have changed Chrome's language to Japanese by the end of this week. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-26; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-22.

Will clear third round of Code Junkie. ( 0% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-29; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-27.

Will clear second round of Code Junkie. ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-29; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-27.

Will clear first round of Code Junkie. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-28; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-27.

Statistics

Recent Predictions