A nuclear device (bomb, granade etc) with a strength of more than 1 kiloton will explode anywhere in the middle east within the next 5 years. ( 13% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by siscoking on 2012-01-29; known on 2017-01-29; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-30.

I will watch all 75 episodes of Hikaru no Go before 2013. ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-29; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.

gwern will have a fulltime non-contractor with-benefits jobs at SIAI within 3 months —shminux ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-28; known on 2012-04-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-28.

Human whole-genome sequencing <=$100 by 2020. ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-28; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.

HP MoR: Harry's conclusion about the blood of Atlantis and the origin of magic is deeply flawed in some respect. ( 42% confidence; 11 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-28; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-03-09.

TechDirt: CLT's 'Security Theater' will be featured in this week's “funniest/most insightful comments”. ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-28; known on 2012-01-30; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-30.

Jaeggi 2008 (DNB transfer to Gf) will be formally retracted within 5 years ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-27; known on 2017-01-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-27.

There will be working blueprints for a space elevator by 2017. ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by iconreforged on 2012-01-27; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-02-26.

Night 26: pill was Vitamin D ( 35% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-26; known on 2012-01-26; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-26.

Less Wrong will have a “limited-access forum” before 2013. ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-26; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.

Jeff will defriend me on Facebook sometime in the next three days. ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 16 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-26; known on 2012-01-29; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-09.

“Reduce term of copyrights to a maximum of 56 years” petition will reach 25k signatures by the deadline. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-26; known on 2012-02-20; judged wrong by ahartell on 2012-02-20.

“Submit ACTA to Senate” petition will reach 25k signatures by the end of this month. ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-26; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-02-02.

PredictionBook will display users' Brier scores by the end of this year. ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-25; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.

I will complete every tutorial and drill in Chessmaster: Grandmaster Edition before 2013. ( 33% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-25; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.

I will read and complete every exercise within Learn Ruby the Hard Way before July 2012. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-25; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03.

The Japanese Language pack install will be successful. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-25; known on 2012-01-25; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-25.

“I predict that I or my team will win (1st place) for the Quantified Health Prize. (70%)” —Kevin ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-02-18.

I will obtain a CompTIA Network+ certification before 2013. ( 70% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.

HP MoR: <4 2+-page chapters of MoR in 2012. —Bugmaster ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-04.

United States ceases to be a net fuel importer for 2012. (60%) —knb ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2013-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-02-02.

Federal investigation of Chris Dodd and/or the MPAA for bribery before the end of this year. ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

GJP: #1070 Will Israel release Palestinian politician Aziz Duwaik from prison before 1 March 2012? ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-23; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-01.

GJP: #1063 Will the Taliban begin official* in-person negotiations with either the US or Afghan government by 1 April 2012? ( 25% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-23; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.

GJP: #1064 Will Yousaf Raza Gillani resign, lose confidence vote, or vacate the office of Prime Minister of Pakistan before 1 April 2012? ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-23; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.

GJP: #1067 Will Traian Basescu resign, lose referendum vote, or vacate the office of President of Romania before 1 April 2012? ( 30% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-23; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.

GJP: #1068 Will the UN Security Council pass a new measure/resolution directly concerning Syria between 23 January 2012 and 31 March 2012? ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-23; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.

GJP: #1069 Before 1 April 2012, will South Korea officially* announce a policy of reducing Iranian oil imports in 2012? ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-23; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.

GJP: #1065 Will there be a significant* lethal confrontation involving government forces in the South China Sea or East China Sea between 23 January 2012 and 31 December 2012? ( 20% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-23; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

Night 23: pill was Vitamin D ( 35% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-23; known on 2012-01-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-23.

Will have college tomorrow. ( 40% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-23; known on 2012-01-24; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-24.

Libya will have a lower HDI next time it is assessed ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by modulus on 2012-01-23; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.

Keido will quote Dante's Inferno at least one more time before Guilty Crown ends ( 95% confidence )

Created by meisnewbie on 2012-01-23; known on 2012-04-16; judged wrong by meisnewbie on 2012-03-25.

Valve will release Steins;gate on steam given that 5pb consents. ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by meisnewbie on 2012-01-23; known on 2012-12-16; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.

Night 22: pill was Vitamin D ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-22; known on 2012-01-22; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-22.

HP MoR: Creation of a Philosopher's Stone requires the sacrifice of human life. (a la Shyy Zrgny Nypurzvfg) ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-22; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.

HP MoR: Quirrel is a/the Basilisk. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-21; known on 2015-01-23; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.

HP MoR: Dumbledore killed Narcissa Malfoy ( 29% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.

Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 between 20 and 24 US$. ( 34% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by siscoking on 2012-01-21; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.

SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021. ( 13% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.

Before the end of the year, PredictionBook will offer weighted averages for the community confidence in a prediction, and/or offer an API for others to do so. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by HonoreDB on 2012-01-20; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2013-01-01.

After going to the hexagonal plane, but before a plot-required exit to the world map in Ar Tonelico, Misha rejoins your party. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-01-19; known on 2012-01-20; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2012-01-19.

After going to the hexagonal plane, but before a plot-required exit to the world map in Ar Tonelico, you fight Bourd. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-01-19; known on 2012-01-20; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2012-01-19.

After going to the hexagonal plane, but before a plot-required exit to the world map in Ar Tonelico, you fight Bourd and Misha rejoins your party. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-01-19; known on 2012-01-20; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2012-01-19.

Night 19: pill was Vitamin D ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-19; known on 2012-01-19; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-19.

Night 18: pill was Vitamin D ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-18; known on 2012-01-18; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-18.

b.crouzier estimated 60% and said “I will have achieved 2m views and 1000 subs on my youtube benjamincrouzier channel at the end of this year. ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by b.crouzier on 2012-01-17; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.

Night 17: pill was Vitamin D ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-17; known on 2012-01-17; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-17.

In the next three days, somebody will post an idea on http://lesswrong.com/r/lesswrong/lw/9eo/a_call_for_solutions_and_a_tease_of_mine/ that I find novel and intriguing. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by HonoreDB on 2012-01-16; known on 2012-01-19; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-01-18.