PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Correctly answer midterm question 10 ( 100% confidence )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-21; known on 2011-11-22; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-22.

Correctly answer midterm question 9 ( 100% confidence )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-21; known on 2011-11-22; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-22.

Correctly answer midterm question 8 ( 60% confidence )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-21; known on 2011-11-22; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-22.

Correctly answer midterm question 7 ( 100% confidence )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-21; known on 2011-11-22; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-22.

Correctly answer midterm question 6 ( 70% confidence )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-21; known on 2011-11-22; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-22.

Correctly answer midterm question 5 ( 100% confidence )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-21; known on 2011-11-22; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-22.

Correctly answer midterm question 4 ( 90% confidence )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-21; known on 2011-11-22; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-22.

Correctly answer midterm question 3 ( 100% confidence )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-21; known on 2011-11-22; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-22.

Correctly answer midterm question 2 ( 80% confidence )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-21; known on 2011-11-22; judged wrong by shokwave on 2011-11-22.

Correctly answer midterm question 1 ( 90% confidence )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-21; known on 2011-11-22; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-22.

I will wake up tomorrow morning by 6.30am, for the purpose of completing my Latin Homework ( 80% confidence )

Created by Codyz on 2011-11-21; known on 2011-11-22; judged wrong by Codyz on 2011-11-21.

Puella Magi Madoka Magica will win a Nihon Taisho SF award ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-21; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-03.

there will be a cure for AIDS by the year 2015 ( 90% confidence; 7 comments )

Created by sinyos on 2011-11-20; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.

The US$ will touch parity with the Euro (1€=1US$) before the end of 2012 ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by herb on 2011-11-20; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-31.

“Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150.” -lukeprog ( 66% confidence; 13 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20; known on 2150-01-01.

There will be a new (canon) Haruhi anime by 2015. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-20; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-01-01.

There will be a new (canon) Haruhi anime by 2014. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-20; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by nshepperd on 2014-01-04.

There will be a new (canon) Haruhi anime by 2013. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-20; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

I will start studying for the Institute of Actuaries' entry exam this week. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-20; known on 2011-11-28; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-11-27.

I will pass the Institute of Actuaries' entry exam. ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-20; known on 2012-02-15; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-02-10.

HP MoR: Methods of Rationality will have an arc/chapter involving Harry getting a harem. ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-20; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by NancyLebovitz on 2015-01-01.

Jacob Zuma of ANC will not be re-elected to lead South Africa at Mangaung 2012. Julius Malema is his downfall, he shouldn't have sacked his liutenant rather he should have made peace with the king maker. ( 60% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by general on 2011-11-19; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by D_Malik on 2012-12-18.

Will Iran's regime will end? ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by New on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-11-19; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-19.

Herman Cain is an “art project” as described by Rachel Maddow. ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by fork on 2011-11-19; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2015. ( 58% confidence; 28 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-01-01.

HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2014. ( 52% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.

HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2013. ( 12% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-01-01.

HP MoR: There will be at least one onscreen polyamorous relationship in the Methods of Rationality. ( 30% confidence; 15 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.

Ron will not be involved in any romantic relationship in the Methods of Rationality. ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by from3004 on 2015-07-31.

HP MoR: Harry/Draco will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.

Draco/Tracey will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.

HP MoR: Harry/Tracey will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.

HP MoR: Harry/Ginny will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.

Neville/Ginny will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.

Neville/Luna will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.

HP MoR: Draco/Luna will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.

HP MoR: Harry/Luna will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.

HP MoR: Harry/Hermione will be the only romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.

I will run a half marathon under 2 hours in may 2012. ( 40% confidence )

Created by fnedrik on 2011-11-18; known on 2012-06-01; judged right by fnedrik on 2012-06-01.

The war in Israel-Plestine will end ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by cheick on 2011-11-18; known on 2011-11-18; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-21.

At least 1 of the 3 books I ordered from Flipkart today will have been delivered by Sunday. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-18; known on 2011-11-20; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-19.

I will get the job I'm interviewing for on Tuesday ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by roshni on 2011-11-18; known on 2011-12-30; judged right by roshni on 2011-11-22.

I will still be using prediction book by January 2012 ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by roshni on 2011-11-18; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-10.

I will be up-to-date on ML class by next weekend ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by roshni on 2011-11-18; known on 2011-11-27; judged wrong by roshni on 2011-11-27.

I will complete at least one of the new Stanford online classes (I signed up for 6 of them) ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Isaac on 2011-11-18; known on 2012-04-01; judged right by Isaac on 2012-04-15.

I will judge Skyrim to be better than Morrowind by the end of November. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Isaac on 2011-11-18; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by Isaac on 2011-12-01.

I will predict this prediction accurately. ( 100% confidence )

Created by Mqrius on 2011-11-17; known on 2011-11-17; judged right by Mqrius on 2011-11-17.

The recession that began in 2008 in the US will not be “over” (arbitrarily defined by me as < 5% unemployment for three economic quarters) until 2023. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by deborama on 2011-11-17; known on 2024-01-01.

Real Madrid would have won the champions league at least 6 times by the year 2025 ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Seyi on 2011-11-17; known in 9 days.

The USA will refuse again to commit to new Emmissions Regulations at COP17 ( 70% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by general on 2011-11-17; known on 2011-12-09; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-14.

Robert Mugabe of ZANU-PFwill lose to Morgan Tsvangirai of MDC-T in the next election(2012) in Zimbabwe ( 76% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by general on 2011-11-17; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-08-05.

the sun will rise in the west and sets in the east ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by dr_freezy on 2011-11-17; known on 2011-11-17; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-17.

Egypt will go throw another war with Isreal ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by ahmedwael on 2011-11-17; known on 2011-12-10; judged wrong by procran on 2011-12-10.

Chavez will not be re-elected president of Venezuela on October 07, 2012. ( 33% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by alexguerrero on 2011-11-17; known on 2012-10-07; judged wrong by Pablo on 2012-10-08.

Harbinger1 is a genuine user but unfamiliar with LessWrong tropes ( 64% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-17; known on 2011-12-17; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-20.

Harbinger1 will be generally accepted to be a troll by the PB community ( 28% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-17; known on 2011-12-17; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-20.

By 2024, either a) group isomorphism problem will be shown to be equivalent to the graph isomorphism problem or b) the group isomorphism will be shown to be in P. ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2024-01-01.

World will not end on 12-21-2012. ( 91% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2012-12-21; judged right by Qiaochu on 2012-12-21.

President Obama will win the Presidential election in 2012. ( 70% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2012-11-11; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.

Social Engineering will go into standard practice for The Prison Reform Act in late 2027. ( 75% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2027-10-15.

With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ( 8% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2023-07-29; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-08-05.

the Earth will be hit by a less than a mile wide asteroid by 2029. Two will be seen and one will hit. Impact will be in the Pacific Ocean south of Guam. ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-07-29.

The worlds first “truely” cryogenic sleep chamber will go online in Feb. 2027, fixing a flawed design and conditions for cryogenic stasis. ( 5% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2027-02-27.

60% of the worlds combustion engines will run on Biofuels by the end of 2022 ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-12-31.

The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045 ( 56% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2046-01-01.

The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035 ( 51% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2036-01-01.

The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025 ( 30% confidence; 15 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2026-01-01.

Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029. ( 7% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-12-01.

The United States, Canada, and Mexico will form the North American Union in August 2020. ( 4% confidence; 22 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2020-08-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-08-30.

The first truly human telepathic-link will occur in 2065 via a biometric implant. ( 6% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2065-12-01.

A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment. ( 4% confidence; 20 wagers; 13 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2026-11-30.

Gangs and gang-affiliations will be outlawed and considered terrorist organisations by 2025. ( 80% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-12-16.

Surgeries for 95% of the worlds medical problems will be drastically cost-reduced and available by 2028. ( 27% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2028-12-27.

Cognitive Implants will be available for consumer use by 2040. ( 62% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2040-11-17.

Truly “Pilotless” air travel will be the standard in 2050. ( 62% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2050-12-16.

World currences will become truly “credit-based” by 2021. Smartcards with biometric IDs will be the forefront of a new era in currency marketing. ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2021-12-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-16.

By 2029, the “worldwide classroom” (WC) will be a standard in education in over 190 countries worldwide. ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-12-31.

The first “worldwide classroom” will be setup on the Internet and will revolutionize learning potentials by double the rate of college bound graduates by 2026. ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2026-06-30.

Contact Sports (football,boxing, kick boxing, most martial arts) will be outlawed in 60% of the world by 2025 due to a medical discovery. ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-12-16.

Worldwide biometric ID system will go online by 2022, unknown to the standard publics awareness. ( 13% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2022-12-30.

Biometric clothing will be a trillion dollar market by 2025. ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-12-27.

Computers will become truely self-aware by 2029. ( 31% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-12-27.

The collective Internet (CI) will be available on a chip by 2025. ( 65% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-06-30.

Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025. ( 8% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-11-17.

Holographic Television (HTV) will be a trillion dollar industry by 2025. ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-12-16.

Caffeine will be an illegal substance … in 60 countries by 2027. ( 4% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2027-01-01.

Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025. ( 10% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known in 24 days.

World governments will ban chemical/Biological/Nuclear weapons after The Third World War (WW III) and make it a penalty of death to all who develop such weapons … anywhere … on Earth. ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2040-01-16.

The Third World War (WW III) death toll will exceed 2.5 billion people, with another 2 billion to follow 15 years after the war has ended. ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-01-16.

New medical breakthrough will revolutionize battlefield care by late 2020. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2020-11-30.

The Third World War (WW III) will occur within 20 years from 2012. ( 15% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-12-31.

HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it. ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-11-30.

The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII). ( 5% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2039-12-15.

By 2046 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125 ( 62% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-16; known on 2045-01-01.

By 2036 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125 ( 35% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-16; known on 2036-01-01.

By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150 ( 28% confidence; 20 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-16; known on 2085-01-01.

By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140 ( 42% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-16; known on 2085-01-01.

“New Zealand to be in recession in December 2011 quarter” -ipredict ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-16; known on 2012-02-22; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-29.

“Lindsay Lohan will be dead within 2 years.” ( 8% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-16; known on 2013-11-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-16.

The oldest living person on 2020-01-01 will be at least 130 years old. ( 0% confidence; 15 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

Statistics

Recent Predictions