PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Zea will take an extended break from KS either before he finishes Shizune's route, or he will switch to some other heroine. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by meisnewbie on 2012-02-11; known on 2012-02-18; judged right by meisnewbie on 2012-03-03.

Pill was Bupropion ( 40% confidence )

Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-10; known on 2012-02-10; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-10.

Night 39: pill was Vitamin D ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-10; known on 2012-02-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-10.

The Opportunity rover will continue doing science (either mobile or as a fixed station) at least until Curiosity lands on Mars. ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-10; known on 2012-10-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-06.

I will make it to the top of camelback mountain tomorrow morning. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Primeval on 2012-02-10; known on 2012-02-10; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-10.

The DirectTV guy won't be able to install our satellite dish on our West facing balcony. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Primeval on 2012-02-10; known on 2012-02-11; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-11.

Price of bitcoin to be less than $10 on MtGox at 00:01am on July 10. GMT ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by _W_ on 2012-02-10; known on 2012-07-10; judged right by _W_ on 2012-07-11.

Price of bitcoin to reach $10 before June 20. on MtGox ( 75% confidence )

Created by _W_ on 2012-02-10; known on 2012-06-20; judged wrong by _W_ on 2012-06-20.

Daily average click-through to DNB FAQ will be be <5% during the Talk-only period as compared to the previous Article-only period, and the difference will be significant at p<0.05 ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-09; known on 2012-05-21; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-05-20.

Daily average click-through to DNB FAQ will be be <5% during the Talk-only period as compared to the previous Article-only period. ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-09; known on 2012-05-21; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-05-20.

Pill was Bupropion ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-09; known on 2012-02-09; judged right by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-10.

Night 38: pill was Vitamin D ( 25% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-09; known on 2012-02-09; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-09.

Recompile of qutecom depending on boost-1.42 instead of boost-1.46 will by itself fix segfault error ( 70% confidence )

Created by Jach on 2012-02-09; known on 2012-02-09; judged right by Jach on 2012-02-10.

I will finish reading any of my books to completion ( 50% confidence )

Created by Jach on 2012-02-09; known on 2012-03-16; judged wrong by Jach on 2012-03-16.

Nanoha is involved in with the Drexler group, either as a Dominion believer or in protecting certain members. ( 60% confidence )

Created by meisnewbie on 2012-02-09; known on 2012-02-28; judged right by meisnewbie on 2012-02-21.

Pill was Bupropion ( 65% confidence )

Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-08; known on 2012-02-08; judged right by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-08.

Night 37: pill was Vitamin D ( 55% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-08; known on 2012-02-08; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-08.

I will purchase Deus Ex 3 within 1 week and complete it (at least once) in less than 2 weeks after purchase. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-08; known on 2012-02-29; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-17.

Sets, Logic, and Maths for Computing will arrive on or before 04/10/2012. ( 66% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-08; known on 2012-04-11; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-24.

Sets, Logic, and Maths for Computing will arrive on or before 04/05/2012. ( 33% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-08; known on 2012-04-06; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-24.

My Network+ exam guide will arrive on or before 02/17/2012. ( 90% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-08; known on 2012-02-18; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-10.

My Network+ exam guide will arrive on or before 02/13/2012. ( 33% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-08; known on 2012-02-14; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-10.

Friend who initially ignored my coming out will reliably refer to me with male pronouns within the year. ( 30% confidence )

Created by Leo on 2012-02-08; known on 2013-02-08; judged right by Leo on 2013-01-13.

androidx86 generic_x86-20120208.iso will boot to a working GUI in VMWare ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-02-08; known on 2012-02-08; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-02-08.

Malcome Turnbull will be the next PM of Australia? ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by dkidston on 2012-02-08; known on 2013-11-16; judged right by Mike on 2014-09-16.

GJP: #1079 Who will win the 2012 Venezuela presidential primary for a unified opposition candidate to Hugo Chavez? Henrique Capriles Radonski ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-07; known on 2012-02-14; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-14.

Pill was Bupropion ( 35% confidence )

Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-07; known on 2012-02-07; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-07.

GJP: #1078 Will a Japanese whaling ship enter Australia's territorial waters between 7 February 2012 and 10 April 2012? ( 45% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-07; known on 2012-04-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-14.

GJP: #1082 Will William Ruto cease to be a candidate for President of Kenya before 10 April 2012? ( 30% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-07; known on 2012-04-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-14.

GJP: #1083 Will Marine LePen cease to be a candidate for President of France before 10 April 2012? ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-07; known on 2012-04-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-10.

GJP: #1081 Will the Nigerian government and Boko Haram commence official talks before 31 December 2012? ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-07; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

GJP: #1080 Will the Republic of Macedonia* be a NATO member before 1 April 2013? ( 60% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-07; known on 2013-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-04-01.

Second Falklands War before 2035 ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-07; known on 2035-01-01.

There will be at least one human being alive on earth even after the end of the year 2012 ( 99% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by vinayak on 2012-02-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by vinayak on 2013-01-01.

Night 36: pill was Vitamin D ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-07; known on 2012-02-07; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-07.

I will complete exercise 11 of Learning Ruby the Hard Way within the next 28 hours. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-07; known on 2012-02-08; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-08.

I will complete The Pragmatic Programmer before March, 2012. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-07; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-04.

My armodafinil shipment will arrive within 4 weeks ( 75% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-06; known on 2012-03-03; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-17.

My armodafinil shipment will arrive within 3 weeks ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-06; known on 2012-02-25; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-17.

My armodafinil shipment will arrive within 2 weeks ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-06; known on 2012-02-18; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-17.

My armodafinil shipment will arrive within 1 week ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-06; known on 2012-02-11; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-11.

Night 35: pill was Vitamin D ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-06; known on 2012-02-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-06.

I will sign up for cryonics before 2020. ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2021-12-20.

I will stop posting on Less Wrong before the end of the year. ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-06; known on 2013-02-02; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2013-01-03.

I will get a remote researcher position at the Singularity Institute before the end of the month. ( 15% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-06; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-04.

I will have mastered physics to 2nd year Uni of Melbourne level ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by waveman on 2012-02-06; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2012-07-01.

Initial release of iPhone 5 or iPad 3 (or their market names) will allow installing your own applications, without jailbreaking or signing up for a developer program ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-02-05; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-21.

There will be a Google Summer of Code in 2017 ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-02-05; known on 2017-04-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-01.

papermachine will not donate to the Internet Archive ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-04; known on 2012-02-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-04.

Vi tager på staden før vi går iseng ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OptiMind on 2012-02-04; known on 2012-02-04; judged right by OptiMind on 2012-02-13.

Major winter storm in the southeast before summer 2012. ( 70% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by smijer on 2012-02-04; known on 2012-05-16; judged wrong by smijer on 2012-05-16.

Pill was modafinil. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Lemmih on 2012-02-04; known on 2012-02-05; judged right by Lemmih on 2012-02-05.

Night 34: pill was Vitamin D ( 70% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-04; known on 2012-02-04; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-04.

USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China. ( 41% confidence; 17 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-04; known on 2030-01-01.

Train on Monday arrives on time (within 5 minutes) ( 80% confidence )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-03; known on 2012-02-07; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-07.

Train on Sunday arrives on time (within 5 minutes) ( 80% confidence )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-03; known on 2012-02-07; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-07.

I will finish the translation of the first 13 chapters of “Facing the Singularity” until the end of february. ( 81% confidence )

Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-03; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2012-03-06.

Night 33: pill was Vitamin D ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-03; known on 2012-02-03; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-03.

I will get a boyfriend this year. ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-03; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.

Eureqa will generate a (reasonably) elegant relation between the marks and attendance of Computer Science and Statistics. ( 20% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-03; known on 2012-02-03; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-02-03.

I will eat a slice of bread with cheese next Friday. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-02-03; known on 2012-02-10; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-02-10.

HP MoR: Methods of Rationality or a derivative work wins a Hugo Award in or before 2016. ( 11% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Osuniev on 2016-11-21.

By 2020, a single-word term for additive fabrication technology will replace “3D printing” in the media. ( 53% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-02-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Leo on 2020-01-01.

No Tobin Tax in the EU by 2013 ( 80% confidence )

Created by modulus on 2012-02-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by modulus on 2013-01-01.

In 6 months I'll have a visible sixpack. ( 73% confidence )

Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-02; known on 2012-08-02; judged right by wallowinmaya on 2012-05-16.

I'll get a girlfriend this year. ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2013-01-03.

My grandmother will die this year. ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2013-01-03.

I'll get a prescription for modafinil this year. ( 75% confidence )

Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2013-01-03.

I'll get an A in “history of psychology” ( 50% confidence )

Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-02; known on 2012-02-27; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-08.

I will sleep more than 5 hours tonight, although I took Modafinil. ( 60% confidence )

Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-02; known on 2012-02-03; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-03.

Stopping Bupropion won't reduce my happiness by more than 10%. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-02; known on 2012-02-16; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-24.

Night 32: pill was Vitamin D ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-02; known on 2012-02-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-02.

Pill was modafinil. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Lemmih on 2012-02-02; known on 2012-02-03; judged right by Lemmih on 2012-02-02.

“Rescind mandate asking Catholic employers to provide contraceptives” petition to the White House will reach 25k signatures by the deadline. ( 90% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-02; known on 2012-02-27; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-02-28.

“Rescind mandate asking Catholic employers to provide contraceptives” petition to the White House will reach 25k signatures by the end of this week. ( 50% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-02; known on 2012-02-06; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-02-06.

2050: Less than 5% of the global population lives in autonomous units with populations between 10 million and 1 billion. ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-02; known on 2050-01-01.

HP MoR: Bacon's diary will turn out to be just a diary. ( 56% confidence; 19 wagers; 19 comments )

Created by Grognor on 2012-02-01; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-03.

Pill was modafinil. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Lemmih on 2012-02-01; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by Lemmih on 2012-02-01.

By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ( 75% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-02-01; known on 2050-01-01.

Night 31: pill was Vitamin D ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-01; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-01.

Natural languages no longer widely used for communication a century from now. (Conditional on non-extinction of Homo sapiens/non-occurrence of apocalypse.) ( 22% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-01; known on 2112-02-01.

I will complete my paper to a standard acceptable to the conference review panel. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-01; known on 2012-02-08; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-25.

I will listen to all of Michel Thomas – Japanese Foundation, before 2013 ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-02-01; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.

My friend's house will be connected to fiberglass internet before 2013. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Mqrius on 2012-01-31; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Mqrius on 2013-01-01.

Pill was modafinil. ( 20% confidence )

Created by Lemmih on 2012-01-31; known on 2012-01-31; judged wrong by Lemmih on 2012-01-31.

Night 30: pill was Vitamin D ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-31; known on 2012-01-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-31.

By 2025, a living multicellular organism will be printed using 3D printing technology. ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-01-31; known in 8 days.

GJP: #1074 Will Libyan government forces regain control* of the city of Bani Walid before 6 February 2012? ( 60% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-31; known on 2012-02-06; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-08.

GJP: #1077 Will Egypt officially announce by 15 February 2012 that it is lifting* its travel ban on Americans currently in Egypt? ( 45% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-31; known on 2012-02-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-17.

GJP: #1075 Will a run-off be required in the 2012 Russian presidential election? ( 35% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-31; known on 2012-03-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-06.

GJP: #1071 Will Iran and the U.S. commence official nuclear program talks* before 1 April 2012? ( 30% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-31; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.

GJP: #1072 Will Serbia be officially granted EU candidacy before 1 April 2012? ( 45% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-31; known on 2012-04-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-04-03.

GJP: #1073 Will the IMF officially announce before 1 April 2012 that an agreement has been reached to lend Hungary an additional 15+ Billion Euros? ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-31; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.

GJP: #1076 Will the Iraqi government officially announce before 1 April 2012 that it has dropped all criminal charges against its VP Tareq al-Hashemi? ( 35% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-31; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.

Night 29: pill was Vitamin D ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-30; known on 2012-01-30; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-30.

The first functional, 3D printed television/monitor screen will be demonstrated by 2020. ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-01-30; known on 2020-01-01.

The first 3D printer virus(es) will be reported before the end of 2012. ( 90% confidence; 6 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-01-30; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.

Homework due this week will be done on time ( 70% confidence )

Created by Jach on 2012-01-30; known on 2012-02-04; judged right by Jach on 2012-02-01.

Super Mario Bros. Z episode 9 will be released on or before November 24, 2012. ( 21% confidence )

Created by Grognor on 2012-01-29; known on 2012-11-24; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-11-24.

The Hunger Games film will not fail (>= 60% on Rotten Tomatoes). ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Christopher on 2012-01-29; known on 2012-03-24; judged right by Christopher on 2012-03-23.