PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

I will use org-mode at least 180/365 days in 2012 ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-31; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.

I will write a 300+ line Clojure/ClojureScript program before 2013 ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-31; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.

There will be a continual presence on Mars of at least one person or probe either on the surface or in orbit until at least 2045 ( 50% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-31; known on 2045-01-01.

I will score above an 85 on my USH test ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Isaac on 2011-10-30; known on 2011-11-13; judged right by Isaac on 2011-11-13.

I will get over a 79 on my Biology test ( 100% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Isaac on 2011-10-30; known on 2011-11-13; judged right by Isaac on 2011-11-09.

I will get over a 90 on all 3 of my upcoming tests this week (Math, Biology, US History) ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Isaac on 2011-10-30; known on 2011-11-20; judged wrong by Isaac on 2011-11-20.

Reddit: guy who signed birth certificate of another man's child will get sued for child support before 2013. ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by muflax on 2011-10-30; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.

The average of this bet will be 90% to 100% until friday. ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Metus on 2011-10-28; known on 2011-11-05; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-05.

The people who join this prediction until friday will bet 45% to 55% on average. ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Metus on 2011-10-28; known on 2011-11-05; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-11-05.

Five people will join this prediction until friday. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Metus on 2011-10-28; known on 2011-11-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-05.

Three people will join this prediction until friday. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Metus on 2011-10-28; known on 2011-11-05; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-11-05.

I will read “Thinking, Fast and Slow” by Daniel Kahneman within the next 4 weeks. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-28; known on 2011-11-25; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-27.

I will average at least one prediction per week on PredictionBook for the next year. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-28; known on 2012-10-28; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-17.

Luke Muehlhauser will cease regularly using modafinil more than 3 times a week or will report tolerance ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-28; known on 2012-10-28; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-24.

iqtest.dk will give me a higher score when I don't answer any questions ( 8% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-27; known on 2011-10-27; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-27.

“Image recorded by NASA Curiosity on Mars surface to be published in 2012” -ipredict ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-27; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-21.

“Lamborghini to announce, before 2013, commercial production of a four door vehicle” -ipredict ( 82% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-27; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.

I will write a blog post on Khan Academy's new proficiency model that I just shipped by the end of this weekend. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by divad12 on 2011-10-27; known on 2011-10-31; judged wrong by divad12 on 2011-11-01.

Owen will post an article about Direct Instruction on LW this year. ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-31.

I will publish another article on my site this year. ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-31.

At least one of my two Samsung HDDs will fail before 2013. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2014-01-01.

LW: Rationality Boot Camp will be declared a success and will have solid long-term data to back it up. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.

LW: Rationality Boot Camp will be declared a success. ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.

Luke will finish his meta-ethics sequence on LW in 2012. ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-01-01.

Dexter season 6: Brother Sam deconverts. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2011-12-18; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-11-07.

Dexter season 6: Brother Sam dies. ( 60% confidence )

Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2011-12-18; judged right by muflax on 2011-11-07.

Dexter season 6: Travis Marshall is not the final villain. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2011-12-18; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-19.

Dexter season 6: lab girl is (specifically) a Dexter fangirl. ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2011-12-18; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-19.

Dexter season 6: lab girl is a serial killer. ( 15% confidence )

Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2011-12-18; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-19.

Dexter season 6: lab girl is more than a thief. ( 65% confidence )

Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2011-12-18; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-19.

Dexter season 6: Prof. Gellar is a hallucination, similar to Dexter's dad. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2011-12-18; judged right by fork on 2011-11-28.

Non-Japanese customers will be allowed to buy e-books in the Japanese Kindle store. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-10-25.

Amazon opens Japanese Kindle store in 2012. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2012-10-25.

Amazon opens Japanese Kindle store in 2011. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-31.

Erik and I will watch the original version of The Thing today. ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-26; known on 2011-10-27; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-27.

“Focus Fusion process to generate net power before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2014” -intrade ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-26; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Serge on 2015-03-30.

“iPad 3 to be formally announced in January 2012” -ipredict ( 9% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-26; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-02-01.

“Yingluck Shinawatra to depart as Prime Minister of Thailand before 1 January 2012” -ipredict ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.

“Normal service on the Maui Pipeline to resume on 28 October 2011” -ipredict ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-26; known on 2011-10-29; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-31.

Nothing ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by arj on 2011-10-25; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by fergus on 2011-10-28.

Launch my KA proficiency model change by the end of today (Oct. 25). ( 72% confidence )

Created by divad12 on 2011-10-25; known on 2011-10-26; judged wrong by divad12 on 2011-10-26.

SM replied to the pro-libertarian comment posted on his blog ( 20% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-25; known on 2011-10-25; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-25.

By October 24, 2012 brazil84 will update his estimate that Amanda Knox was guilty to below 50% and declare that he has so updated on Less Wrong. ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-25; known on 2012-10-24; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-10-24.

Dutch house prices as reported by cbs.nl will have fallen more than 3% year on year by September 2012 ( 72% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by dhoe on 2011-10-24; known on 2012-10-31; judged right by dhoe on 2012-10-24.

In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug ( 9% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Konkvistador on 2011-10-24; known on 2039-01-01.

Before 2012, the United States will lose its triple-A credit rating from Moody's or Fitch (or both) ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-23; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.

econstudentlog.wordpress.com or its successor will cease to be updated ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-23; known on 2021-10-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2021-10-23.

Occupy Wall Street (NYC) will continue at least 30 more days. ( 79% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by torekp on 2011-10-23; known on 2011-11-23; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-23.

I will have all latework caught-up by Friday ( 40% confidence )

Created by Jach on 2011-10-23; known on 2011-10-28; judged wrong by Jach on 2011-10-29.

LoZ: Skyward Sword will receive an IGN score of 9.8/10 or higher ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jach on 2011-10-23; known on 2011-11-25; judged right by kpreid on 2011-11-13.

I will be using PredictionBook for personal productivity goals at least weekly for a month. ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by divad12 on 2011-10-23; known on 2011-11-23; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-11-24.

Conditional on nuclear weapons being used, the target will be within Japan. ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-22; known on 2050-01-01.

Conditional on nuclear weapons being used, the target will be within the Korean peninsula. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-22; known on 2050-01-01.

Conditional on nuclear weapons being used, the target will be within Pakistan or India. ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-22; known on 2050-01-01.

Conditional on the resumption of warfare, there will be <100,000 South Korean civilian casualties. ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-22; known on 2050-01-01.

I will sleep at 1 am tonight. ( 65% confidence )

Created by divad12 on 2011-10-22; known on 2011-10-23; judged wrong by divad12 on 2011-10-23.

Apple will make Siri available to iPhone 4 users, before 2013. ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-22; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.

I will complete this week's ai-class and ml-class homework. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by divad12 on 2011-10-22; known on 2011-10-24; judged right by divad12 on 2011-10-25.

The show “Once Upon a Time” will be canceled within it's first season. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by sdenheyer on 2011-10-22; known on 2012-08-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-07-05.

The TV show “Grimm” will be canceled in it's first season. ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by sdenheyer on 2011-10-22; known on 2012-08-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-07.

The show “Pan Am” will not be canceled during it's first season. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by sdenheyer on 2011-10-22; known on 2012-08-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-05.

Konkvistador has obstructive sleep apnea ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-21; known on 2013-10-21; judged wrong by Grognor on 2014-06-15.

Last.fm will become intertwined with Facebook, and take the spotlight away from Spotify. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JMArchitect on 2011-10-21; known on 2012-10-21; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-25.

Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-21; known on 2070-01-01.

My average weight (measured once everyday) for this week will be at least one pound greater than my average weight for next week. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-21; known on 2011-10-29; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-29.

I will write a detailed blog post. ( 30% confidence )

Created by divad12 on 2011-10-21; known on 2011-11-21; judged right by divad12 on 2011-11-03.

I will eat breakfast at home on Monday, and get to work before 11 am. ( 65% confidence )

Created by divad12 on 2011-10-21; known on 2011-10-24; judged wrong by divad12 on 2011-10-25.

I will finish updating http://os499.github.com/ such that I can start sharing it publicly. ( 60% confidence )

Created by divad12 on 2011-10-21; known on 2011-10-31; judged wrong by divad12 on 2011-11-01.

i will use prediction book tomorrow ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by divad12 on 2011-10-21; known on 2011-10-22; judged right by divad12 on 2011-10-22.

I will sleep at 2 am (in bed) for waking up at 9:10 am on Saturday. ( 40% confidence )

Created by divad12 on 2011-10-21; known on 2011-10-22; judged right by divad12 on 2011-10-23.

(Note: this bet is for monitoring instrumental rationality and akrasia) I will finish my UCC law quiz and hand it in (late) tomorrow. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbarnes1 on 2011-10-21; known on 2011-10-22; judged wrong by jbarnes1 on 2011-10-22.

I will abstain from sexual activity (porn, masturbation, orgasm) until January 31st, 2012. ( 45% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Arkanj3l on 2011-10-20; known on 2012-01-31; judged wrong by Arkanj3l on 2012-05-26.

Someone will add at least 400 Austrian macroeconomic predictions to predictionbook. ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by siodine on 2011-10-20; known on 2011-10-20; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-21.

I will obtain at least one Java certification before the end of June, 30th, 2012. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-20; known on 2012-06-30; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03.

MoR: ch 78 will mention Amanda Knox ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-20; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-03-20.

At any point before 2100, 5 billion humans (or emulated humans) are alive and physically within 3000 km of each other. ( 50% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-19; known on 2100-01-01.

ROSAT will reenter by November 15 ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-19; known on 2011-11-15; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-23.

The discussion post http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/842/the_sciencearchist_manifesto/'s comment section will contain a flame war started by someone other than myself by the end of this Friday ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by beo_shaffer on 2011-10-19; known on 2011-10-21; judged wrong by beo_shaffer on 2011-10-27.

I will complete Project Euler Problem #1 in the next 7 days. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-19; known on 2011-10-26; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-20.

“Ron Paul to dropout of the 2012 Presidential race before midnight ET 05 Feb 2012” -Intrade ( 6% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-19; known on 2012-02-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-06.

ROSAT will reenter by November 2 ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-19; known on 2011-11-03; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-23.

No human fatalities will result from the ROSAT reentry. ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-19; known on 2011-11-30; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-23.

At least 10% of MRI images uploaded to radiopaedia.org will be of resolution greater than 512×512px (upscaling doesn't count). ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Matt on 2011-10-19; known on 2013-10-19; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-01.

My penis will temporary stop responding to sexual stimuli in three days. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Arkanj3l on 2011-10-18; known on 2011-10-21; judged wrong by Arkanj3l on 2011-10-20.

I will “flatline”, i.e. my penis will temporary not respond to sexual stimuli due to prolonged abstinence. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Arkanj3l on 2011-10-18; known on 2011-10-23; judged wrong by Arkanj3l on 2011-10-20.

The U.S. economy will not be back to 6% or less unemployment until 2018. ( 60% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by chemotaxis101 on 2011-10-18; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2015-03-07.

Apple (AAPL) will buy Vimeo. ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Nieskens on 2011-10-17; known on 2012-12-16; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-16.

I will go to the gym in the next 30 minutes ( 80% confidence )

Created by Isaac on 2011-10-17; known on 2011-10-17; judged wrong by Isaac on 2011-10-18.

“The Prime Minister of New Zealand as a result of the 2011 New Zealand General Election was an electorate candidate for the National Party in that election and/or appears on that party's list.” -ipredict ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-17; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by faws on 2012-02-01.

Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025 ( 29% confidence; 13 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-17; known in 9 days.

Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2019 ( 15% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-17; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2019-01-01.

I will go to the gym 3 times by Saturday ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Isaac on 2011-10-17; known on 2011-10-22; judged wrong by Isaac on 2011-10-22.

I will go to the gym tomorrow ( 93% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Isaac on 2011-10-17; known on 2011-10-18; judged wrong by Isaac on 2011-10-18.

I will formally quit Cross Country by the end of the week ( 80% confidence )

Created by Isaac on 2011-10-17; known on 2011-10-21; judged wrong by Isaac on 2011-10-22.

D will visit me today ( 50% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-16; known on 2011-10-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-16.

D will call me back today ( 70% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-16; known on 2011-10-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-16.

Fobos-Grunt will successfully launch and return to Earth by March 1, 2020 ( 47% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2020-03-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-03.

Fobos-Grunt will launch successfully by December 25, 2011. ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2011-12-25; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-03.

By 2034 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125. ( 38% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2034-01-01.

By 2075 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2075-01-01.

Statistics

Recent Predictions