Before 2022 UTC, any type of thermonuclear device will be detonated inside or within 6 km of Israel, Israeli-occupied territories, or West Bank, killing >= 1000 people in the first 24 hours ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-12; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-01.

A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021 ( 29% confidence; 21 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-11; known on 2021-09-10; judged wrong by muflax on 2021-09-10.

Steel_ will have a custom capping business (specify a nootropic mix and have it delivered to you) running in a year. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-11; known on 2012-09-11; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-08.

There will be a major terrorist attack (>= 60 deaths) between 2011-09-10 20:00 UTC and 2011-09-12 06:00 UTC anywhere in the world except Afghanistan, Pakistan, or Iraq. ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-10; known on 2011-09-12; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-12.

I will find and contact the real recipient of a Fedex package that was incorrectly delivered to my address ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-10; known on 2011-09-11; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-11.

My email to Rafaela Hillerbrand <rafaela.hillerbrand@rwth-aachen.de> will bounce or otherwise be end in an error. ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-09; known on 2011-09-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-17.

AOL & Yahoo to merge by 2013. ( 43% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

NGE: Touji will pilot an Eva against the Mass Production Evas in 3.0 or 4.0, contingent on the MP Evas appearing ( 25% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-09; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.

NGE: Touji will pilot an Eva in 3.0 ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

HP MoR: Eliezer will publish ch78 before 7PM PST 13 September 2011 ( 47% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-09; known on 2011-09-13; judged wrong by fergus on 2011-09-13.

NGE: Touji will be featured significantly in 3.0 ( 35% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

Gaddafi will be killed or captured ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Dylan on 2011-09-08; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by Dylan on 2011-09-30.

NGE: The First Ancestral Race will reveal themselves and will come to Earth personally in 3.0 to punish Rei-Shinji/Shogoki for trespassing into their domain of power. ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

NGE: 4.0 will end on or near a blue wave shot to parallel the red wave shot that opened 1.0, and ended EoE ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.

NGE: Sadamoto's Eva manga will conclude with substantially the same ending as Last B ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2013-07-26; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-11-05.

NGE: Sadamoto's Eva manga will conclude with substantially the same ending as Last A ( 5% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2013-07-26; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-11-05.

NGE: Sadamoto's Eva manga will conclude with substantially the same ending as EoTV ( 10% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2013-07-26; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-11-05.

NGE: Sadamoto's Eva manga will conclude with substantially the same ending as the NGE64 variant of EoE ( 26% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2013-07-26; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-11-05.

NGE: Sadamoto's Eva manga will conclude with substantially the same ending as EoE ( 26% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2013-07-26; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-08-01.

NGE: Neither 3.0 nor 4.0 will be longer than 60 minutes ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

NGE: 4.0 will not be longer than 60 minutes ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.

NGE: 3.0 will not be longer than 60 minutes ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

NGE: 3.0 will be titled “You Can (Not) Be Replaced” ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.

NGE: 3.0 will be titled “You Can (Not) Die” ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.

NGE: Sadamoto's Eva manga, Asuka will try to go berserk and will be killed by the MPEs; 3rd Impact subsequently starts ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-01.

NGE: Shinji will masturbate to Asuka at some point during Rebuild ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2020-01-03; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.

NGE: Both 3.0 and 4.0 will be released in the US by Funimation ( 89% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.

NGE: 4.0 will be released in 2015 ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

NGE: 4.0 will be released in 2014 ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.

NGE: 4.0 will be released in 2013 ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-02.

NGE: 4.0 will be released in 2012 ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

NGE: 3.0 will be released in 2014 ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.

NGE: 3.0 will be released in 2013 ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.

NGE: Rebuild 3.0 will be released in 2011 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.

Yoshiyuki Sadamoto’s Evangelion manga: After stage (chapter) 87, there will be 3 more stages, for a final manga volume consisting of 6 stages ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2013-03-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-20.

GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1018: Will Muqtada al-Sadr formally support for the current Iraqi government of Nouri al-Maliki by 30 September 2011? ( 35% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-03.

GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1017: Will Robert Mugabe cease to be President of Zimbabwe by 30 September 2011? ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-03.

GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1015: Will Israel's ambassador be formally invited to return to Turkey by 30 September 2011? ( 5% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-03.

GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1013: Will the London Gold Market Fixing price of gold (USD per ounce) exceed $1850 on 30 September 2011 (10am ET)? ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-03.

GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1012: Will Italy's Silvio Berlusconi resign, lose re-election/confidence vote, OR otherwise vacate office before 1 October 2011? ( 5% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-03.

GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1011: Will the Nikkei 225 index finish trading at or above 9,500 on 30 September 2011? ( 35% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-03.

GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1010: Will the 30 Sept 2011 “last” PPB for Nov 2011 Brent Crude oil futures* exceed $115? ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-03.

GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1009: By 1 January 2012 will the Iraqi government sign a security agreement that allows US troops to remain in Iraq? ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1007: Will there be a lethal confrontation involving government forces in the South China Sea or East China Sea by 31 December 2011? ( 7% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-12-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-14.

GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1006: Will Italy restructure or default on its debt by 31 December 2011? ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-12-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-30.

GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1004: Will the United Nations General Assembly recognize a Palestinian state by 30 September 2011? ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-09-29; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-29.

GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1003: Will Serbia be officially granted EU candidacy by 31 December 2011? ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-12-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-30.

GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1002: Who will be inaugurated as President of Russia in 2012? (a) Medvedev ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2012-12-30; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-08.

GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1001: Will the Six-Party talks (among the US, North Korea, South Korea, Russia, China, and Japan) formally resume in 2011? ( 5% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-12-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-30.

GJP: Iran to conduct a successful nuclear test before December 31, 2012 ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

Nicolas Sarkozy to be elected President of France in 2012 —Intrade ( 45% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2012-05-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-05-06.

“King Abdullah to no longer be head of government in Saudi Arabia before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

“Ali Abdullah Saleh to no longer be President of Yemen before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

(All) Wikipedias' total editor base will be >=95,000 in June 2012. ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2012-08-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-04.

“Julia Gillard to no longer be Prime Minister of Australia before midnight ET 30 Sep 2011” (excluding death) —Intrade ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-05; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-30.

HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Sirius Black ( 12% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by ArisKatsaris on 2011-09-04; known on 2015-11-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.