PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

Statistics

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Recent Predictions

iPhone 5 (not “4S”) will launch Sprint-only in the US ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-04; known on 2012-09-13; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-12.
NGE Rebuild: Ritsuko will be shot by Gendo (again) ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
NGE Rebuild: Ritsuko will commit suicide by jumping off the bridge ( 3% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
NGE Rebuild: Ritsuko will commit suicide by shooting herself in the head ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
NGE Rebuild: Ritsuko will commit suicide ( 20% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
NGE Rebuild: Kozo Fuyutsuki dies (before Third Impact/Instrumentality) ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
NGE Rebuild: 3.0 will open in the beginning/middle of an Angel attack a la 2.0 ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-02-26.
NGE Rebuild: There will be no 3rd Impact. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
NGE Rebuild: In 4.0, there will be an epilogue set years later ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
NGE Rebuild: “Arael attacks the sequestered NERV personnel with a wide beam, providing for a mindfuckery exposition scene featuring the other adults finally.” ( 5% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01.
NGE Rebuild: The entity in Terminal Dogma is still Lilith (of NGE TV) in some sense ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2016-01-01.
NGE Rebuild: The key of Nebuchadnezzar is a seed of life & the original Adam reduced to embryonic form (akin to NGE TV) ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01.
NGE Rebuild: The key of Nebuchadnezzar is a seed of life ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
NGE Rebuild: The 4 pilots (Shinji, Asuka, Mari, Rei) each have a piece of Adam's soul in addition to their own, with Kaworu having the main piece ( 25% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01.
NGE Rebuild: The Final Angel is EoE-Shogoki (and not Kaworu) ( 5% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01.
NGE Rebuild: The Key of Nebuchadnezzar is neither a Lance nor Seed of Life, but a literal key which activates some piece of FAR technology ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01.
NGE Rebuild: The coffins on the moon each contain or contained an Angel. ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01.
NGE Rebuild: There are precisely 4 white/black moons, 1 for each FAR depicted in flashbacks to 2I ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01.
NGE Rebuild: There are more than 2 white/black moons involved ( 45% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01.
GJP: #1032 Will the Japanese government formally announce the decision to buy at least 40 new jet fighters by 30 November 2011? ( 45% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-03.
GJP: #1031 Will the U.S. Congress pass a joint resolution of disapproval in October 2011 concerning the proposed $5+ billion F-16 fleet upgrade deal with Taiwan? ( 30% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-11-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-01.
GJP: #1030 Will the UN Security Council pass a measure/resolution concerning Syria in October 2011? ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-11-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-01.
GJP: #1029 Will any of the 20 jailed Bahraini medical workers be released by 1 November 2011? ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-11-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-02.
GJP: #1028 Will Moody’s issue a new downgrade of the sovereign debt rating of the Government of Greece between 3 October 2011 and 30 November 2011? ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-03.
GJP: #1027 Who will win the January 2012 Taiwan Presidential election? (Ma Ying-jeou of the KMT) ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-20.
GJP: #1026 Will Joseph Kabila remain president of the Democratic Republic of the Congo through 31 January 2012? ( 60% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-02.
GJP: #1025 Will the Freedom and Justice Party win at least 20 percent of the seats in the first People's Assembly (Majlis al-Sha’b) election in post-Mubarak Egypt? ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-14.
GJP: #1024 Will Abdoulaye Wade win re-election as President of Senegal? ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
GJP: #1023 Will former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko be found guilty on any charges in a Ukrainian court before 1 November 2011? ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-11-02; judged right by gwern on 2011-10-12.
GJP: '#1022 Will the South African government grant the Dalai Lama a visa before 7 October 2011?' ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-10-08; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-08.
GJP: #1021 Will the expansion of the European bailout fund be ratified by all 17 Eurozone nations before 1 November 2011? ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-11-02; judged right by gwern on 2011-10-18.
GJP: #1020 Will peace talks between Israel and Palestine formally resume at some point between 3 October 2011 and 1 November 2011? ( 25% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-11-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-02.
'Conrad Murray to be found guilty of involuntary manslaughter' [of Michael Jackson] ( 50% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-03; known on 2012-10-03; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-11-08.
My practice SAT scores will be high enough that I will be able to confidently take it in January ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Isaac on 2011-10-01; known on 2012-02-15; judged right by Isaac on 2011-12-15.
A new US Political party will come to power by 2020 ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Isaac on 2011-10-01; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-11-16.
Sweatshops will be regarded as an essential step to modern prosperity by 2015 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Isaac on 2011-10-01; known on 2015-01-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-16.
My next full practice SAT score will be over 2050 ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Isaac on 2011-10-01; known on 2011-10-15; judged wrong by Isaac on 2011-10-17.
Patrick Macias will reply within a week. ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-30; known on 2011-10-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-07.
Apple will announce a 128GB+ (non-HDD) iPod or closest iPod Touch successor, before 2012 ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-29; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.
Within two years, consensus will be that Edward Nelson's current attempt at demonstrating a contradiction in PA fails. ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-27; known on 2013-09-27; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-01.
Vettel to win f1 championship ( 97% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Laurablack on 2011-09-26; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-30.
Ubs will sell off its investment arm ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Laurablack on 2011-09-26; known on 2012-03-26; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-26.
'Electric and hybrid trucks are now surpassing 100,000 in annual production numbers worldwide' in 2017 ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.
'After a six year construction period, the Kingdom Tower opens in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.' in 2017 ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.
'The African Central Bank is established' in 2018 ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
'The Nabucco gas pipeline is completed' in 2017 ( 23% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-01-08.
'India completes construction of the Dibang Valley Dam' in 2017. ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-02.
'the countries of Iceland, Macedonia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania and Serbia have all joined the ranks of the EU member nations' by 2018 ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.
'Cosmetic surgery has doubled its market size' (in 2017 compared to 2010) ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2019-06-30.
'China launches an unmanned sample return mission to the Moon' ( 52% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.
M1A3 Abrams tanks deployed and operational on battlefields by 2018 ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2018-01-08.
Apple market capitalization >=$1 trillion by 2017 ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.
'A pill to prevent sunburn' is available either over-the-counter or by prescription ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-04.
'The East Side Access subway extension opens in New York' in 2016 ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-02-16.
India's first manned spaceflight by 2017. ( 32% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
'Queen Elizabeth II becomes the longest reigning monarch in British history' ( 89% confidence; 27 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2015-09-10; judged right by kuudes on 2015-09-09.
Masdar City phase 1 complete ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-21.
'The Internet has a greater reach than television' by/during 2014 (America) ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by supinf on 2015-08-05.
The Gaia mission will launch in 2013 ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2014-01-01.
The ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Command will be dissolved on schedule. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2012-04-17; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.
'Completion of the i5K project' by 2017 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
“Hypersonic airliners are entering [commercial] service” ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2030-01-01.
“The vast majority of aeroplanes are now hydrogen powered, or use some combination of hydrogen and other renewable energy.” ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2050-01-01.
“The World Bank predicts that Yemen's oil and gas revenues will plummet over the next two years and fall to zero by 2017 as supplies run out.” ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
“By 2040, less than 5% of the global population is smoking.” ( 40% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2040-01-01.
Nintendo launches Wii 2/Wii U ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.
Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023 ( 53% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
Switzerland to decommission all nuclear reactor by 2035. ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2035-01-01.
The appearance of complex numbers in quantum mechanics has something to do with information propagating backwards through time regarding constraints on which possible world(s) may obtain. This is related to getting bits of Chaitin's omega by observing app ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-24; known on 2031-09-24.
The Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite will strike a person, residence, or vehicle, where the impact results in at least one human death (that we know about) before 2011-10-25 ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-24; known on 2011-10-25; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-26.
'Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 1 year' ( 70% confidence; 38 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-23; known on 2012-09-23; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-08.
Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 3 months. ( 46% confidence; 46 wagers; 39 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-22.
Michael House will reply within a week. ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-22; known on 2011-09-29; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-29.
No euthanasia coaster will be built in the next 30 years. (See http://news.discovery.com/tech/euthanasia-sucicide-rollercoaster-ride-110919.html ) ( 87% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-21; known on 2041-09-21.
By 2020, a former US government official will come forward to say that they were involved in planning the 9/11 attacks. ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
By 2020, one of Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, George W. Bush, Paul Wolfowitz, John Bolton, Richard Myers, or Peter Pace will state he had advanced knowledge of the 9/11 attacks or helped plan those attacks. ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
Southern Baptist Convention will not rename themselves in the next two years. ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-21; known on 2013-09-20; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-09-20.
“The first person to do a special [specific] drawing for this thing will get fired” LBJ LBJ will be the first person to do a specific drawing for this purpose. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-09-21; known on 2012-09-21; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2012-09-21.
In ten years, people will be able to regenerate lost or damaged teeth for under $5k/tooth (2011 USD, inflation-adjusted). ( 48% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by papermachine on 2011-09-20; known on 2021-09-16; judged wrong by papermachine on 2021-09-16.
Qwikster will resurrect Red Envelope Entertainment or some similar film production and distribution arm within a year of the Qwikster/Netflix split. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by roxton on 2011-09-19; known on 2012-11-01; judged wrong by roxton on 2011-10-10.
US Supercommittee to publish >=$1.5t deficit reduction by midnight 23 November 2011 ( 36% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-19; known on 2011-11-24; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-22.
The Doctor (from Doctor Who) will exceed the usual regeneration limit via genetic looms, like the Other is rumored to have done. ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by papermachine on 2011-09-19; known on 2013-10-16; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2013-12-26.
SpaceX to successfully dock with the ISS by January 15, 2012 ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-19; known on 2012-01-15; judged wrong by kiba on 2012-01-15.
SpaceX to successfully dock with the ISS by January 1, 2013 ( 75% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-19; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-05-25.
Israel and Egypt at war by 2022 ( 21% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-16; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-01.
NGE: Rebuild Gendo is Kaworu's genetic father ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-15; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by papermachine on 2021-09-16.
NGE: Kaworu knew Shinji during childhood when Shinji met some form of Adam/Kaworu, accidentally causing Second Impact ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-14; known on 2018-01-01.
NGE: Kaworu knew Shinji during childhood and his comment about happiness refers to being unable to comfort Shinji after Yui died ( 45% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-14; known on 2018-01-01.
NGE: Kaworu knew Shinji during childhood ( 70% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-14; known on 2018-01-01.
NGE: Rebuild Kaworu's body is derived in some fashion from Misato (such as DNA) ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-14; known on 2018-01-01.
Mirror matter will be shown to make up at least 1% of dark matter. ( 17% confidence; 13 wagers )

Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-14; known on 2021-09-14; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-09-14.
Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory. ( 4% confidence; 23 wagers; 13 comments )

Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-14; known on 2051-09-15; judged unknown by Arets Paeglis on 2011-10-10.
Steve R. and I will have produced at least one dubstep song within the next six months. ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-14; known on 2012-03-14; judged wrong by Will Newsome on 2012-09-05.
I will have recorded at least one acoustic guitar song within the next week. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-14; known on 2011-09-21; judged right by Will Newsome on 2011-09-17.
Google + will have under 10 million users by 2013 ( 38% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by Gedusa on 2011-09-14; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-04-08.
I will improve the T >= (11/20)S bound by 2013. ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-14; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
Greece will leave the European Union by 2012 ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Gedusa on 2011-09-13; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
BitcoinEXpress attack on Namecoin will be successful in reversing the hashchain at least temporarily ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-13; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-30.
The personal use of cannabis will be de jure legalized in at least one U.S state by 2020. ( 62% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Gedusa on 2011-09-13; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by roxton on 2013-01-11.
I will be a USCF Master before I turn 23. ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-13; known on 2014-11-15; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-15.