PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

Statistics

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Recent Predictions

Ron Paul will be dead by 2017. ( 22% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
'NASA to announce discovery of extraterrestrial life before midnight ET 31 Dec 2014' —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
'NASA to announce discovery of extraterrestrial life before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012' —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.
'NASA to announce discovery of extraterrestrial life before midnight ET 31 Dec 2013' —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.
Brazil only 7th largest world economy or smaller in 2050 —HSBC ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.
Egypt, Malaysia and Indonesia in top 20 largest world economies —HSBC ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.
Turkish GDP > Russian in 2050 —HSBC ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.
American per-capita GDP 3x greater than Chinese per-capita GDP in 2050 —HSBC ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.
Chinese & Indian per capita in 2050 will be 8x greater (in constant 2000 dollars) than 2011 —HSBC ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.
India GDP less than either China or USA in 2050 —HSBC ( 76% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01; judged unknown by Baeboo on 2020-12-01.
India >=$8.2 trillion GDP (constant 2000 dollars) in 2050 —HSBC ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.
US >=$22.3 trillion GDP (constant 2000 dollars) in 2050 —HSBC ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.
China >=$24.6 trillion GDP (constant 2000 dollars) in 2050 —HSBC ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.
Firefox 6 will build correctly on Windows 7 on my first try (note: FF5 built just fine a few months ago) ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-12; known on 2011-08-13; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-13.
" I’m reasonably certain that [>1b pub library circulation] will also be true 35 years from now" ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-12; known on 2046-09-01.
“Ten years from now, U.S. public libraries will circulate more than a billion print books each year” —Walt Crawford ( 81% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-12; known on 2021-09-01; judged right by stepan on 2021-09-12.
The next Humble Bundle accepts Bitcoin for payment. ( 34% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-08-12; known on 2012-02-12; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-12-13.
In the next five years, two classes in the Complexity Zoo as of 10 August 2011, will either be shown to be equal or shown to be unequal. ( 64% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-10; known on 2016-08-10; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2020-11-01.
Next iPad refresh (“iPad 3” or similar) will have a model with a >= 240 dpi primary display ( 85% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-10; known on 2012-04-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-03-07.
The ITER fusion reactor will have first plasma by the end of 2022. ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-09; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
The Opportunity rover will continue doing science (either mobile or as a fixed station) for at least another six months. ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-09; known on 2012-02-09; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-09.
The Curiosity rover will successfully land on Mars. ( 70% confidence; 14 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-09; known on 2012-09-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-06.
The Dow Jones will be at least 10,000 on January 1st, 2012 ( 62% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-09; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
The Dow Jones will be at least 11,000 on January 1st, 2012 ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-09; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
By default, the Command Prompt in Windows 8 RTM will be resizable (to an increase in width) by dragging the corner resizer. ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-09; known on 2012-08-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-03.
I will make more changes to predictionbook that will be included in the official repo, where inclusion happens before 2013-01-01 UTC ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-10.
Roger Ver will not create a Longbets about his Bitcoin>gold/silver prediction within a month. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-08; known on 2011-09-08; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-21.
Apple will ship a Macbook Air (or closest product successor) with a non-glossy display to a customer before 2013-01-01 UTC ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-08; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
I will complete the Good Judgment Project and be paid the full honorarium. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-05; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2015-01-01.
Dow Jones below 10,000 at end of year. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-05; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
I will make at least one prediction on PredictionBook in 2012 ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-05; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.
Terence Tao will solve the Clay Institute problem on the Navier-Stokes equation (or prove it cannot be done) within the next five years. ( 8% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by papermachine on 2011-08-05; known on 2016-08-05; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-08-05.
Morendil will be accepted by the Good Jugdgement Team. ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-04; known on 2011-11-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-05.
I will be accepted by the Good Judgement Team. ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-04; known on 2011-11-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-05.
“Bitcoins will outperform Gold, Silver by 100X over the next two years” —Roger Ver ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-04; known on 2013-08-04; judged wrong by mfb on 2013-08-31.
Ron Paul will win the electoral vote in the 2012 U.S. Presidential election ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-04; known on 2012-11-08; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
MyBitcoin will go back up before 2011-09-04 UTC and allow > 90% of users to withdraw their full balances ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-04; known on 2011-09-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-14.
The US Democratic Party fragments before the 2016 primary season. ( 6% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by papermachine on 2011-08-03; known on 2016-01-16; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-16.
Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen. ( 47% confidence; 23 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-03; known on 2041-01-01.
Apple will buy Hulu. ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
300: Battle of Artemisia is not produced and released in the next decade. ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-08-02; known on 2021-08-02; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-09.
I will win the LW SRS contest. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-01; known on 2011-08-19; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-19.
The US Mint will mint one or more high-value coins ($100K+/coin) before 2011-09-15 ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-07-30; known on 2011-09-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-15.
RBA will leave interest rates unchanged at the next meeting ( 55% confidence )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-30; known on 2011-08-02; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-08-02.
I will win the free video tutorial contest I entered today. ( 12% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-07-28; known on 2011-08-06; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-08-08.
Google will buy Spotify ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-07-28; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
A 1MW cold-fusion reactor will NOT be demonstrated in October this year. ( 93% confidence; 18 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by scav on 2011-07-28; known on 2011-10-31; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-11-03.
Apple will lose all its *NIX developer goodwill and become the equivalent of Microsoft — hated but a necessary evil. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by kyst on 2011-07-28; known on 2021-07-28; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-08-07.
My last 10 link submissions to anime subreddit will average 1<x<15 karma. ( 15% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-07-26; known on 2011-07-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-07-30.
my next laptop will leave it's former owner and be ready to rebuild today ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-07-26; known on 2011-07-26; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-07-26.
Confirmed observation of a neutrino source outside our solar system other than SN 1987A by 2060 ( 83% confidence; 11 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-25; known on 2061-01-01.
Emotion-reading wearable device commercially available (may need prescription or license) by 2031, or obtainable by publicly available plans (eg open-source project, Make magazine article, Instructable how-to, etc) ( 72% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-07-23; known on 2031-01-01.
By 2050 the US per capita GDP will have declined to 90% or less of its 2004 value. ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Konkvistador on 2011-07-21; known on 2051-02-01.
“within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million.” —Dennis Mangan ( 65% confidence; 12 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-07-21; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2022-01-05.
Between January and June 2017 (inclusive), I will enter text into my computers and the majority of this text will be entered using a physical keyboard with physical buttons that depress at least 2.5mm ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-07-21; known on 2017-07-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-07-01.
I will move out of the small suburban city in northern California where I have lived for 14 years, before March 1, 2012 ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-07-21; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-03-01.
I will write programs between January 2013 and July 2013 (inclusive) and do a majority of this programming on a monitor in portrait orientation ( 57% confidence; 45 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-07-21; known on 2013-08-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-08-01.
Michele Bachmann will be revealed as a drug addict before Election Day ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers; 73 comments )

Created by Jach on 2011-07-20; known on 2012-11-06; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-06.
Contador will win Tour de France 2011 ( 10% confidence )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-20; known on 2011-07-25; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-25.
Andy Schleck will win Tour de France 2011 ( 10% confidence )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-20; known on 2011-07-25; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-25.
Thomas Voeckler will win Tour de France 2011 ( 5% confidence )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-20; known on 2011-07-25; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-25.
Uruguay will win Copa America ( 65% confidence )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-20; known on 2011-07-25; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-25.
My entry will win the GitP 28th PrC contest. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-18; known on 2011-07-27; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-30.
My SR thread on Bitcoin forums will be deleted or otherwise hidden or suppressed. ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-07-17; known on 2011-08-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-07-18.
Spot gold price will touch at least $2000 by December 31, 2012. ( 52% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by dakyne on 2011-07-16; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by dakyne on 2013-01-01.
“We believe that by 2015 digital currency will be accepted everywhere in the U.S. – from your local corner store to Walmart. We will no longer need to carry a wallet,” PayPal President Scott Thompson ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-07-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-04.
Frank Schleck will win Tour de France 2011 ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-15; known on 2011-07-24; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-25.
The US dept ceiling will be raised by August 2 ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-15; known on 2011-08-02; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-02.
From May 2014 to April 2015 (inclusive), Microsoft will not ship any free security patches or hotfixes for Windows XP. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-07-15; known on 2015-05-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-05-01.
The final flight of space shuttle Atlantis (STS-135) will be completed successfully and will land with no fatalities and no major incidents. ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-14; known on 2011-07-23; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-21.
Silver spot price will touch $50 or higher by December 31, 2012. ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by dakyne on 2011-07-14; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by dakyne on 2013-01-01.
UCSB Gauchos men's basketball team will win 20 or more games in the 2011 – 2012 regular season. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by dakyne on 2011-07-14; known on 2012-03-04; judged wrong by dakyne on 2012-03-05.
I will be raided or searched over my Silk Road article. ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-07-12; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-02.
I will not smoke any tobacco products over the next 5 years. ( 98% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-07-11; known on 2016-07-11; judged right by gwern on 2016-07-11.
XiXiDu will not comment or post to LW for 5 years. ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-07-11; known on 2016-07-11; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-16.
Cadel Evans will win Tour de France 2011 ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-11; known on 2011-07-25; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-25.
By 2061, India will be the world's largest economy —Scott Sumner ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-07-10; known on 2061-01-01; judged right by Vaibhav_Srivastva on 2020-12-01.
Sweden will beat Australia in tonights quarterfinal ( 75% confidence )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-10; known on 2011-07-10; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-11.
papermachine is Chinese or of Chinese descent. ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-07-08; known on 2011-07-09; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-07-08.
NGE: in Sadamoto's manga, Shinji will save Asuka from MP Evas, there will be no 3rd Impact, and everyone lives happily ever after ( 10% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-07-05; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-02.
The initial carbon price announced by the Gillard government will be below $40 a tonne ( 95% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-05; known on 2011-07-10; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-10.
The initial carbon price announced by the Gillard government will be below $30 a tonne ( 65% confidence )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-05; known on 2011-07-10; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-10.
The initial carbon price announced by the Gillard government will be below $20 a tonne ( 15% confidence )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-05; known on 2011-07-10; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-10.
NGE: Asuka will die in Stage 86 or 87 of the manga. ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-07-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-07.
LW user 'Zed' is Zed Shaw. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-07-04; known on 2011-07-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-07-05.
The majority of people will not worship man-made Gods by the year 2030. ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by dragonfly on 2011-07-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03.
“You will hear nothing about Google+ a year from now.” – Eliezer Yudkowsky (http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2722976) ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by ZrCa on 2011-07-03; known on 2012-07-03; judged wrong by ZrCa on 2012-07-19.
Nadal will regain the #1 ranking at some point this year ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-03; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2012-01-10.
Philip Roth for 2011 Literature Nobel ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-07-02; known on 2011-10-10; judged wrong by ka on 2011-10-06.
Don Delillo for 2011 Literature Nobel ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-07-02; known on 2011-10-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-07.
Haruki Murakami for 2011 Literature Nobel ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-07-02; known on 2011-10-10; judged wrong by ka on 2011-10-06.
Cormac McCarthy for 2011 Literature Nobel ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-07-02; known on 2011-10-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-07.
We will be using a cloud based rendering solution for animations in under 2 months ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-07-02; known on 2011-09-02; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-09-02.
Xmonad 1.0 will be released in July. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-07-01; known on 2011-08-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-01.
the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. —S. Jay Olshansky ( 7% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-29; known on 2100-01-01.
Greek will default / there will be a credit event relating to greek govt bonds ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Michael Stevens on 2011-06-29; known on 2011-12-29; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
Tyrion will not die in A Dance With Dragons. ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by ZrCa on 2011-06-29; known on 2011-08-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-21.
UTS will be one of the first 100 universities in the world by 2014. ( 26% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by puya on 2011-06-28; known on 2014-06-30; judged wrong by Grognor on 2014-09-09.
Mourinho's fear over Barcelona will make him leave Real Madrid in this season. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by puya on 2011-06-28; known on 2011-08-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-30.
The Islamic Republic Will collapse in 2 years in IRan. ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by puya on 2011-06-28; known on 2013-06-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-06-30.