PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Either of my haiku will make the top 25 of the ANN contest ( 7% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-20; known on 2011-08-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-26.

Either of my haiku will win the ANN contest (either as top-ranked haiku or as the randomly selected entry) ( 1% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-20; known on 2011-08-29; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-30.

Google+ will revoke its ban on pseudonymous accounts within a year, due to SDr's petition campaign. ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-20; known on 2012-08-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-20.

Google+ will revoke its ban on pseudonymous accounts within a year. ( 19% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-20; known on 2012-08-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-20.

I will find a buyer for my car with a blown head gasket for >= $800 ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jach on 2011-08-18; known on 2012-01-16; judged right by Jach on 2011-10-22.

cousin_it is the other vladimir ( 70% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by u_ on 2011-08-18; known on 2011-08-18; judged right by gwern on 2011-11-17.

The Hubble Telescope will not deorbit before January 1, 2020. ( 67% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

The Hubble Telescope will deorbit before the end of 2025 ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-18; known on 2026-01-01.

The kidnappings in Sanderson’s “The Alloy of Law” will turn out to be in order to construct a captive breeding program to make Mistborn ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-18; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-13.

The kidnappings in Sanderson's “The Alloy of Law” will turn out to be in order to make hemalurgic spikes from the victims. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-18; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-08.

The James Webb Telescope will launch successfully by the end of 2019 ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

The James Webb Telescope will launch successfully by the end of 2015 ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-18; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

Barack Obama elected president in 2012 ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Solvent on 2011-08-18; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.

Clojure becomes dominant JVM language on GitHub ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Jach on 2011-08-18; known on 2016-10-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-16.

Nintendo officially offers bluetooth controllers with game-pack slot attachment devices for cell phones ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jach on 2011-08-18; known on 2013-10-16; judged wrong by Jach on 2013-10-16.

Second edition of 3DS out by Christmas 2012 ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Jach on 2011-08-18; known on 2012-12-16; judged right by Jach on 2012-08-27.

The Hobbit Part 1 will gross more on its opening weekend than LotR: Return of the King ( 71% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by Jach on 2011-08-18; known on 2012-12-16; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-16.

HPMOR will update again by October 20th ( 55% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-17; known on 2011-10-21; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-25.

Syrian president Bashar al-Assad will lose control over his country in 2011. ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

I will have watched every video on Khan Academy by August 2013. ( 39% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2013-08-17; judged wrong by dk on 2013-11-04.

By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms. ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2030-01-01.

Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030 ( 26% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by Porejide on 2011-08-25.

Obama is going to be re-elected as president in 2012. ( 79% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2012-11-06; judged right by Jach on 2012-11-07.

I will find a frame at a reasonable price for my large painting. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by cadbar on 2011-08-17; known on 2011-08-17; judged wrong by cadbar on 2011-08-17.

Obama will be elected President in 2012 ( 69% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by cmessinger on 2011-08-16; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.

Harry Altman and I will have at least one joint paper published by the end of 2013 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-16; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Sniffnoy on 2012-10-18.

Relationship between P and BPP resolved by 2045 ( 69% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-16; known on 2045-01-01.

Google will sell all hardware developing and producing parts of Motorola Mobile before 1. Jan 2012 ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2011-08-16; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

“Euro/US Dollar to close ON or ABOVE 1.4000 on 30 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-01.

“Feb 2012 (G12) Gold Futures to close ON or ABOVE 1600 on 30 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-01.

“The US Economy will go into Recession during 2011” —Intrade ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-01.

“Dow Jones to close ON or ABOVE 12250 on 31 Aug 2011” —Intrade ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-16; known on 2011-08-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-31.

“United States GDP growth for Q2 of 2011 will be positive” —Intrade ( 98% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by faws on 2012-01-01.

“Dow Jones to close ON or ABOVE 12000 on 30 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by faws on 2012-01-01.

“Feb 2012 (G12) Gold Futures to close ON or ABOVE 1700 on 30 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-01.

“Dow Jones to close ON or ABOVE 10750 on 31 Aug 2011” —Intrade ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-16; known on 2011-09-01; judged right by Serge on 2011-09-01.

“Feb 2012 (G12) Gold Futures to close ON or ABOVE 1800 on 30 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-16; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

“125 or more US banks to fail during 2011” —Intrade ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-01-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-03.

“Dec 2011 unemployment rate to be 9.4% or higher” —Intrade ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-01-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-07.

“Andy Coulson to be charged with any criminal offence before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

“Rebekah Brooks to be charged with any criminal offence before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

“Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-12-31.

“Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-31.

“Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 16% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

“Sudan to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.

“Sudan to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-31.

“Sudan to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

“Syria to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.

“Syria to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-31.

“Syria to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

“Iran to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.

“Iran to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-31.

“Iran to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

“Cuba to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.

“Cuba to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

“Cuba to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

“Any country currently using the Euro to announce their intention to drop it midnight ET 31 Dec 2014” —Intrade ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-12-31.

“Any country currently using the Euro to announce their intention to drop it midnight ET 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.

“Any country currently using the Euro to announce their intention to drop it midnight ET 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

“Magnitude 9.0 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

“Magnitude 8.5 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

“Magnitude 8.0 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

“China to conduct overt military action against Taiwan before midnight ET 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.

“China to conduct overt military action against Taiwan before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-31.

“China to conduct overt military action against Taiwan before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

“Bird Flu (H5N1) to be confirmed in the USA before midnight ET on 30 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-30.

“United States to conduct overt military action against North Korea before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.

“United States to conduct overt military action against North Korea before midnight ET on 30 Jun 2012” —Intrade ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-06-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-06-30.

“United States to conduct overt military action against North Korea before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

“United States to conduct overt military action against North Korea before midnight ET on 30 Sep 2011” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-30.

“An internationally recognised Palestinian state to be established before midnight ET 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 14% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.

“An internationally recognised Palestinian state to be established before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-31.

“An internationally recognised Palestinian state to be established before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

“Hamas accepts Israel's right to exist before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

“Hamas accepts Israel's right to exist before midnight ET on 30 Sep 2011” —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-30.

“Magnitude 9.0 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

“Magnitude 8.0 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

“Bird Flu (H5N1) to be confirmed in the USA before midnight ET on 30 Dec 2011” ( 2% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-30.

“Bird Flu (H5N1) to be confirmed in the USA before midnight ET on 30 Sep 2011” ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-30.

“Steve Jobs to depart as CEO of Apple before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 9% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-24.

“The Freedom Tower to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

“The Chicago Spire to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-12-31.

“The Chicago Spire to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

“The Chicago Spire to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

“Michele Bachmann to win the 2012 South Carolina Primary” —Intrade ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-01-28; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-22.

“Michele Bachmann to win the 2012 New Hampshire Primary” —Intrade ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-25.

“Michele Bachmann to be elected President in 2012” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.

“Michele Bachmann to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012” —Intrade ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-08-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-30.

“Michele Bachmann to dropout of the 2012 Presidential race before midnight ET 05 Feb 2012” —Intrade ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-02-05; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-28.

“Michele Bachmann to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll” —Intrade ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2011-08-13; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-13.

“Rupert Murdoch to depart as CEO of News Corp before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 6% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

“David Cameron to no longer be Prime Minister before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

“Twitter to announce an IPO before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2013-12-31.

“Twitter to announce an IPO before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

“Twitter to announce an IPO before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

“Ron Paul to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012” —Intrade ( 13% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-08-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-30.

“Gary Johnson to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012” —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-08-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-30.

“Hillary Clinton to be elected President in 2012” —Intrade ( 4% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.

“Rick Perry to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012” —Intrade ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-08-30; judged wrong by falenas108 on 2012-04-19.

'John Bolton to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012' ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-08-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-30.

Statistics

Recent Predictions